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Cayuga Lake Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 49 49
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 51 51
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 61 61
4 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 63 63
5 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 66 66
6 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 73 73
7 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 82 82
8 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 88 88
9 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 98 98
10 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 102 102
11 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 104 104
12 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 110 110
13 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 120 120
14 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 121 121
15 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 123 123
16 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 125 125
17 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 125 125
18 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 145 145
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 6 6 8 BKD 5 5 10 1 1 2 49 Hector Guzman '20
Maya Weber '20
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 1 9 11 5 7 1 1 4 11 1 51 Joseph Laforgia '21 [1-10]
Adam Hano '23 [1-4]
Karlei Kongsiri '23 [5-10]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 2 7 7 2 10 8 9 2 10 4 61 Christopher Sharpless '23
Shaanti Choi-Bose '24
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 5 8 6 1 12 2 6 3 12 8 63 Benton Amthor '23
Christian Neuman '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 3 2 9 3 2 14 15 12 3 3 66 Sebby Turner '20
Adeline Sutton '21
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 4 3 5 14 15 4 14 6 2 6 73 Tucker Hersam '20
Edward Harrison '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 13 4 3 11 3 13 3 11 7 14 82 Jake Vickers '22
Sarah Smith '22
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 16 13 1 4 8 15 2 17 5 7 88 Clayton Snyder '22
Annika Ekholm '20
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 9 5 12 8 9 11 11 16 6 11 98 Ava Esquier '20
Emelia Bartusiak '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 11 1 2 13 11 18 8 5 16 17 102 Gerard Eastman '21
Ana Schonander '20
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 7 16 4 15 13 12 5 18 4 10 104 Porter Kavle '22
Brigid Murphy '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 8 10 10 6 17 6 12 15 17 9 110 Phillip Schofield '21
Emily Hughes '21
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 10 15 17 12 4 10 13 7 14 18 120 Thomas Green '23
Rachel Mckenzie '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 12 17 13 10 16 17 4 8 8 16 121 Hunter Kahler '21
Kaitlin Brzostek '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 14 12 14 7 14 9 18 9 13 13 123 Patrick Modin '23
Kieran Cullen '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 15 11 18 16 6 16 7 13 18 5 125 Charles Carraway '22
Katherine Klempen '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 18 14 16 18 1 7 16 14 9 12 125 Aidan Molesky '20 [1-10]
Camille Nastasi '22 [1-4]
Matthew Wright '23 [5-10]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 17 18 15 17 18 3 17 10 15 15 145 Connor Murphy '23
Zoe Chang '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 11111222333
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 22222111181818
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 33333444555
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 14444333222
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 25555666777
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 36666555444
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 17777888999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 28888777666
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 39999101010111111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 113131313141414151515
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214141414131313121212
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 315151515161616171717
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 110101010999888
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 211111111121212131313
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 312121212111111101010
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 116161616151515141414
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 217171717181818111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 318181818171717161616

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 29.4 kn
From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine6.9 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1020.8 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.16 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.25
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.30 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →