Aidan Molesky

Rating History

Crew Rating

Career: 20.33 percentile of ICSA crews (limited evidence)

No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.

Singlehanded & Keelboat Ratings

DisciplineRating Rank RacesLast raced
Singlehanded1.49unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active)8Fall 2019

Team Race Rating

Rating Rank vs fleet rating Record
1.66 (fleet 2.29) unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) +0.00 ± 0.18
about what the fleet rating predicts
as skipper 22–76 (22%)
as crew 9–54 (14%)
SeasonRegattas Skipper W–LCrew W–L
Spring 202011–11—
Spring 2019513–42—
Spring 201848–75–36
Spring 201740–164–18
11.11.21.31.41.51.61.7Spring 2017Spring 2018Spring 2019Spring 2020Admiral Moore Team Race (2017-03-25): rating 1.14, fleet rating alone 1.16, offset -0.01; record 0-2 in this boatWoollum Team Race (2018-03-10): rating 1.12, fleet rating alone 1.13, offset -0.02; record 8-7 in this boatGeorgetown Team Race (2019-03-02): rating 1.19, fleet rating alone 1.18, offset +0.01; record 0-3 in this boatGeorgetown Team Race (2019-03-02): rating 1.19, fleet rating alone 1.18, offset +0.01; record 0-6 in this boatSt. Mary's Team Race InterConference (2019-03-09): rating 1.18, fleet rating alone 1.18, offset +0.01; record 0-9 in this boatGraham Hall (2019-03-16): rating 1.18, fleet rating alone 1.18, offset -0.00; record 0-4 in this boatGraham Hall (2019-03-16): rating 1.18, fleet rating alone 1.18, offset -0.00; record 0-5 in this boatGraham Hall (2019-03-16): rating 1.18, fleet rating alone 1.18, offset -0.00; record 2-2 in this boatAdmiral Moore Team Race (2019-03-23): rating 1.22, fleet rating alone 1.19, offset +0.03; record 5-5 in this boatTeam Race Challenge (2019-03-30): rating 1.23, fleet rating alone 1.19, offset +0.04; record 2-4 in this boatTeam Race Challenge (2019-03-30): rating 1.23, fleet rating alone 1.19, offset +0.04; record 4-4 in this boatGW Team Race (2020-02-29): rating 1.61, fleet rating alone 1.59, offset +0.03; record 1-11 in this boatTeam race rating

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 13 graded regattas (159 matches) the record is 31–128 against 36.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 8 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.

DateRegattaRole Value Perf. RecordExp.
wins
Δ Surprise
(bits)
P(this good
or better)
2020-02-29GW Team Raceskipper2.16-0.491–113.6−2.654.6>99%
2019-03-30Team Race Challengeskipper1.891.806–86.2−0.100.069%
2019-03-23Admiral Moore Team Raceskipper1.862.375–54.1+0.520.338%
2019-03-16Graham Hallskipper1.803.212–110.8+1.401.316%
2019-03-09St. Mary's Team Race InterConferenceskipper1.78-1.220–90.4≤−3.000.5>99%
2019-03-02Georgetown Team Raceskipper1.81-1.190–90.3≤−3.000.5>99%
2018-04-07Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championshipcrew2.221.322–194.2−0.901.395%
2018-03-17Graham Hall Team Racecrew1.920.421–142.7−1.501.698%
2018-03-10Woollum Team Raceskipper1.522.328–76.5+0.800.922%
2018-03-03Georgetown Team Racecrew2.293.142–31.2+0.850.534%
2017-04-01MAISA Team Race Challengecrew2.571.833–114.7−0.740.992%
2017-03-18Southern New England Team Raceskipper1.59-1.410–140.4≤−3.000.6>99%
2017-03-11John Jackson Memorial Team Racecrew1.961.331–71.6−0.630.385%

Regatta results

Regatta Role Div Races Avg Rating
Spring 2020 Team page Season
GW Team Race Skipper TR 15 7% —
Fall 2019 Team page Season
War Memorial Skipper B 1 16.0 —
NYM Fall Open Skipper A 6 8.3 1.79
Laser North Singlehanded Skipper A 8 17.4 -0.73
David Lee Arnoff Trophy Skipper A 13 6.8 2.70
Cayuga Lake Invite Skipper A 10 12.5 2.35
Coed Showcase Tournament Skipper B 7 9.1 2.76
Spring 2019 Team page Season
Team Race Challenge Skipper TR 14 43% —
St. Mary's Team Race InterConference Skipper TR 9 0% —
OCC Spring Open Skipper A 12 4.2 2.98
Navy Spring Skipper A 14 14.1 2.25
Graham Hall Skipper TR 15 20% —
Georgetown Team Race Skipper TR 15 20% —
America Trophy Crew A 5 11.2 —
Admiral Moore Team Race Skipper TR 10 50% —
Admiral's Cup Skipper A 8 16.9 1.27
Fall 2018 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase Skipper B 8 14.9 1.63
Riley Cup Skipper B 6 11.8 0.71
Oyster Bowl Fleet 1 Skipper B 8 17.1 —
Moody Trophy Skipper A 9 15.1 0.73
Harvard Coed Showcase 2 Skipper B 10 16.5 0.77
Spring 2018 Team page Season
Woollum Team Race Skipper TR 15 53% —
Navy Spring Skipper B 11 16.1 1.60
Graham Hall Team Race Crew TR 15 7% —
Georgetown Team Race Crew TR 5 40% —
Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship Crew TR 21 10% —
America Trophy Skipper B 4 13.8 0.58
Admirals Cup Skipper B 10 15.4 1.43
Fall 2017 Team page Season
NY Maritime Fall Open Skipper B 4 10.2 2.27
North Fall Qualifier Skipper B 1 5.0 —
Kings Point Dinghy Open Skipper B 4 10.8 1.47
Jesuit Interconference Skipper A 9 8.2 1.70
43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy Skipper B 4 14.0 1.31
Spring 2017 Team page Season
Southern New England Team Race Skipper TR 14 0% —
Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies Skipper A 13 16.5 0.49
MAISA Team Race Challenge Crew TR 14 21% —
John Jackson Memorial Team Race Crew TR 10 20% —
Greater NY Dinghy Regatta Skipper B 3 10.3 -1.67
America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship Crew B 6 13.8 —
Admiral Moore Team Race Skipper TR 12 17% —
Fall 2016 Team page Season
St. Mary's Fall Interconference Skipper A 2 14.0 1.83
Sacred Heart Trophy Skipper A 10 6.2 0.91
Danmark Trophy Skipper B 15 18.3 1.22
Atlantic Coast Tournament Skipper B 2 12.0 2.23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →