Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship

HostCornell
Date04/07/2018
TypeConference Championship
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	19–2
2	George Washington University	Colonials	15–6
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	15–6
4	Cornell University	Big Red	9–12
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–12
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	8–13
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	0–0
8	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	2–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,154 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 84 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.547 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	10.84	Roger Dorr / Rebecca Fung 3.50 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 3.85 William Logue / Rose Edwards 3.44	73%	19–2 (90%)	+3.7
2	George Washington University Colonials	4	9.85 school +0.09	Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.18 Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.02 12–3 Kai Friesecke / Miranda Bakos 3.58 7–5 Kai Friesecke / Tanner Chapko 3.55 8–1 Derek Poon Tip / Isabel Strachan 2.93 3–3	51%	15–6 (71%)	+4.4
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1	11.05 school +0.17	Greiner Hobbs / Haley Okun 3.90 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.27 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.68 12–6 Hector Guzman / Kyle Easton 3.72 3–0	77%	15–6 (71%)	−1.1
4	Cornell University Big Red	6	9.41 school +0.25, home +0.41	Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 3.07 Connor Kelter / Kimberly Wong 2.94 Thomas Balk / Adeline Sutton 2.71	40%	9–12 (43%)	+0.7
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	9.88 school +0.45	Edmund Cooper / Kaisey Mccallion 3.05 4–11 Liam Mccarthy / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 2.90 4–11 Bradley Adam / Kate Bjerregaard 3.42 4–11 Edmund Cooper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.10 5–1 Liam Mccarthy / Kate Bjerregaard 3.19 5–1 Bradley Adam / Thomas Walker 3.22 5–1	50%	9–12 (43%)	−1.4
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	9.20 school −0.11	Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.57 James Jacob / Emily Harrison 2.66 Dreugh Phillips / Stephen Guglielmo 2.89 8–4 Jack Elkin / Bridget Groble 3.32 0–6 Jack Elkin / Gavin Burkhart 3.25 0–3	33%	8–13 (38%)	+1.0
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.17 school +0.27	Peter Hogan / Kelly Milliken 3.39 Gary Prieto / Sarah Barkley 3.46 Maxwell Brill / Kent Mathes 2.98 7–8 Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.10 0–6	58%	7–14 (33%)	−5.1
8	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	8	8.50	Zachary Hill / Timothy Montera 3.21 John Lawless / Aidan Molesky 2.22 Kyle Comerford / Brian Buckley 3.10	20%	2–19 (10%)	−2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Georgetown University	10.84	12.21	19–2	15.3	+1.37	3.2	4%
2	George Washington University	9.85	10.90	15–6	10.6	+1.04	3.2	3%
6	Old Dominion University	9.20	9.45	8–13	6.9	+0.24	0.2	38%
4	Cornell University	9.41	9.57	9–12	8.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.05	10.74	15–6	16.2	−0.31	0.3	82%
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.88	9.57	9–12	10.4	−0.32	0.3	82%
8	SUNY Maritime College	8.50	7.60	2–19	4.2	−0.90	1.3	95%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	10.17	9.00	7–14	12.1	−1.17	4.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.44	4.81	19–2	15.3	+1.37	3.2	4%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.18	4.22	15–6	10.6	+1.04	3.2	3%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.57	3.82	8–13	6.9	+0.24	0.2	38%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.07	3.23	9–12	8.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	2.94	3.10	9–12	8.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.27	2.96	15–6	16.2	−0.31	0.3	82%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.05	2.73	9–12	10.4	−0.32	0.3	82%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.42	3.10	9–12	10.4	−0.32	0.3	82%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.21	2.31	2–19	4.2	−0.90	1.3	95%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.22	1.32	2–19	4.2	−0.90	1.3	95%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	2.98	1.82	7–14	12.1	−1.17	4.2	>99%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.46	2.29	7–14	12.1	−1.17	4.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
1	2	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	80%
1	3	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	81%
1	4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	84%
1	5	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	7	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	71%
1	8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	83%
1	9	Georgetown University	George Washington University	74%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	67%
1	11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	63%
1	12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	13	Georgetown University	Cornell University	81%
1	14	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	68%
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	84%
1	16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	41%	upset
1	18	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	19	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
1	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	21	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	63%
1	22	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	39%	upset
1	23	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	65%
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	76%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	26	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	23%	upset
1	27	Cornell University	George Washington University	38%	upset
1	28	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	45%	upset
2	29	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
2	30	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	80%
2	31	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	81%
2	32	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	16%	upset
2	33	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
2	34	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
2	35	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	71%
2	36	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	83%
2	37	Georgetown University	George Washington University	74%
2	38	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	67%
2	39	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	63%
2	40	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	93%
2	41	Georgetown University	Cornell University	81%
2	42	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	68%
2	43	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	84%
2	44	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
2	45	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	60%
2	46	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	91%
2	47	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
2	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
2	49	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	37%	upset
2	50	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	40%	upset
2	51	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	65%
2	52	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	79%
2	54	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	23%	upset
2	55	George Washington University	Cornell University	62%
2	56	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	55%
3	57	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
3	58	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	80%
3	59	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	81%
3	60	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	84%
3	61	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
3	62	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
3	63	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	29%	upset
3	64	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	83%
3	65	George Washington University	Georgetown University	26%	upset
3	66	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	67%
3	67	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	63%
3	68	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	93%
3	69	Georgetown University	Cornell University	81%
3	70	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	32%	upset
3	71	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	84%
3	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	23%	upset
3	73	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	40%	upset
3	74	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	91%
3	75	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
3	76	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
3	77	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	63%
3	78	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	40%	upset
3	79	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
3	80	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
3	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	79%
3	82	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	23%	upset
3	83	Cornell University	George Washington University	38%	upset
3	84	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	45%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Colonials	Statesmen	Red	Seahawks	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–4	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Colonials	Statesmen	Red	Seahawks	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Colonials	Statesmen	Red	Seahawks	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–2	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–5	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
2	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
4	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
5	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
6	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
7	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
8	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
9	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
10	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
11	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
12	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
14	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
15	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
16	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
19	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
20	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
21	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
22	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
23	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
24	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
25	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
26	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
27	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
28	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
29	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
30	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
31	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
32	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
33	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
34	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
35	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
36	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
38	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
39	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
40	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
41	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
42	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
43	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
44	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
45	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
47	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
48	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
49	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
50	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
51	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
52	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
54	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
55	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
56	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
57	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
58	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
60	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
61	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
63	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
64	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
65	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
66	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
67	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
68	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
70	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
71	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
72	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
73	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
74	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
75	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
76	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
77	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
78	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
79	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
80	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
81	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
82	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
83	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
84	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Rebecca Fung '19 Meaghan Macrae '18 Rose Edwards '18
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Matthew Homa '18 Shira Golub '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Tanner Chapko '21 Miranda Bakos '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Haley Okun '18 Maya Weber '20 Kyle Easton '20
Cornell University	Big Red	Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18 Thomas Balk '18	Diana Otis '19 Kimberly Wong '19 Adeline Sutton '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Edmund Cooper '17 Liam Mccarthy '19	Thomas Walker '21 Kate Bjerregaard '19 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Stephen Guglielmo '19 Bridget Groble '22 Gavin Burkhart '20 Emily Harrison '21 Carter Little '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Maxwell Brill '20 Peter Hogan '18	Sarah Barkley '19 Kent Mathes '20 Emma Remis '20 Kelly Milliken '21
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18	Aidan Molesky '20 Brian Buckley '21 Timothy Montera '18

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1015.3 hPa

Temperature

31°F

↑ 35°F ↓ 26°F

Feels like 22°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.7 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1015.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Cornell — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cornell in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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