John Lawless

School SUNY Maritime College '19
Regattas 51
Races 561

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
1.98 (fleet 2.74)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	−0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 64–162 (28%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2019	5	14–46	—
Spring 2018	5	26–47	—
Spring 2017	3	6–28	—
Spring 2016	3	15–28	—
Fall 2015	1	3–13	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 17 graded regattas (226 matches) the record is 64–162 against 66.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2019-03-30	Team Race Challenge	skipper	2.55	2.45	6–8	6.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
2019-03-23	Admiral Moore Team Race	skipper	2.55	3.06	5–5	4.1	+0.52	0.3	38%
2019-03-16	Graham Hall	skipper	2.50	3.92	3–12	1.6	+1.42	1.5	14%
2019-03-09	St. Mary's Team Race InterConference	skipper	2.46	-0.54	0–9	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
2019-03-02	Georgetown Team Race	skipper	2.44	-0.56	0–12	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%
2018-04-07	Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship	skipper	2.22	1.32	2–19	4.2	−0.90	1.3	95%
2018-03-31	Team Race Challenge	skipper	2.25	2.48	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
2018-03-24	Admiral Moore Team Race	skipper	2.24	2.21	11–6	11.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
2018-03-17	Graham Hall Team Race	skipper	2.35	0.84	1–14	2.7	−1.50	1.6	98%
2018-03-03	Georgetown Team Race	skipper	2.29	3.14	2–3	1.2	+0.85	0.5	34%
2017-04-01	MAISA Team Race Challenge	skipper	2.57	1.83	3–11	4.7	−0.74	0.9	92%
2017-03-25	Admiral Moore Team Race	skipper	2.55	1.15	2–10	3.1	−1.40	1.0	97%
2017-03-11	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	skipper	2.48	1.85	1–7	1.6	−0.63	0.3	85%
2016-04-09	MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy	skipper	2.44	2.73	3–9	2.5	+0.28	0.1	46%
2016-03-26	Aaron Szambecki Team Race	skipper	2.35	2.25	7–14	7.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
2016-03-12	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	skipper	2.41	3.10	5–5	4.0	+0.69	0.5	32%
2015-11-07	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	2.27	2.75	3–13	2.1	+0.48	0.3	36%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2019 Team page Season
Team Race Challenge	Skipper	TR	14	43%	—
St. Mary's Team Race InterConference	Skipper	TR	9	0%	—
Leroy Grant	Skipper	A	12	4.9	2.93
Graham Hall	Skipper	TR	15	20%	—
Georgetown Team Race	Skipper	TR	15	20%	—
America Trophy	Skipper	A	12	12.0	2.70
Admiral Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	10	50%	—
Admiral's Cup	Skipper	A	8	13.5	2.82
Fall 2018 Team page Season
War Memorial	Skipper	A	12	12.0	2.68
Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase	Skipper	A	14	12.6	2.51
Riley Cup	Skipper	A	6	5.0	3.88
Oyster Bowl Fleet 1	Skipper	A	7	13.9	1.31
MAISA Match Race Championship	Crew	TR	7	71%	—
Jesuit Invitational	Skipper	A	1	16.0	—
ICSA Match Race National Championship Keelboat	Crew	A	1	4.0	—
Harvard Coed Showcase 2	Skipper	A	10	16.7	1.05
Spring 2018 Team page Season
Team Race Challenge	Skipper	TR	15	67%	—
Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies	Skipper	A	15	9.9	2.91
Graham Hall Team Race	Skipper	TR	15	7%	—
Georgetown Team Race	Skipper	TR	5	40%	—
Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship	Skipper	TR	21	10%	—
America Trophy	Skipper	A	2	17.0	0.47
Admirals Cup	Skipper	A	10	15.1	1.73
Admiral Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	17	65%	—
Spring 2017 Team page Season
Navy Spring	Skipper	B	15	12.7	2.01
MAISA Team Race Challenge	Skipper	TR	14	21%	—
John Jackson Memorial Team Race	Skipper	TR	10	20%	—
Greater NY Dinghy Regatta	Skipper	A	2	3.5	2.83
America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship	Skipper	B	15	13.1	2.00
Admiral Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	12	17%	—
Fall 2016 Team page Season
War Memorial Backup	Skipper	B	11	9.5	2.99
MAISA North Qualifier	Skipper	A	6	4.5	3.00
Nevins Trophy	Skipper	B	16	12.3	2.81
Intrepid Trophy Keelboat	Crew	A	1	5.0	—
Harry Anderson Jr Trophy	Skipper	B	15	11.5	2.69
David Lee Arnoff	Skipper	A	13	6.1	2.98
Atlantic Coast Tournament	Skipper	A	4	12.2	2.47
Spring 2016 Team page Season
Thompson Trophy	Skipper	B	16	13.3	2.12
John Jackson Memorial Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	57%	—
MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy	Skipper	TR	14	29%	—
America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs	Skipper	B	14	11.3	2.10
Admiral's Cup	Skipper	B	11	14.1	2.07
Aaron Szambecki Team Race	Skipper	TR	21	33%	—
Fall 2015 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted	Skipper	B	18	15.3	1.71
NY Maritime Fall Open	Skipper	B	11	5.8	2.67
North Fall Qualifier	Skipper	B	11	6.0	2.28
MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat	Crew	A	1	4.0	—
Harry Anderson	Skipper	B	15	14.8	1.64
Hap Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	16	19%	—
David Lee Arnoff Trophy	Skipper	A	6	7.8	2.77
Danmark Trophy	Skipper	B	6	15.3	1.67

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →