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David Lee Arnoff

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 31 22 53
2 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 40 56 96
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 55 49 104
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 77 62 139
5 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 68 79 147
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 51 111 162
7 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 79 105 184
8 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 108 83 191
9 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 140 83 223
10 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 120 117 237
11 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 130 117 247
12 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 135 147 282
13 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 151 156 307
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 2 2 2 2 4 2 1 2 4 5 3 1 31 Greiner Hobbs '18
Anna Flaherty '20
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 1 1 3 1 1 7 4 1 7 2 6 4 40 Max Neubelt '17
Garrett Lawlor '20
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 6 3 1 4 3 3 12 3 5 1 2 2 51 Robby Gearon '19
Lexi Pline '19
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 3 3 5 8 3 5 1 3 8 1 7 1 7 55 Nathaniel Johansson '18
Alyssa Berger '19
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 5 8 6 4 7 2 4 6 5 2 6 10 3 68 Daniel Lawless '17
Anna Palmer '17
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 8 5 10 6 9 6 6 2 4 6 4 5 6 77 Lee Dumaliang '17 [1-13]
Abigail Lockler '18 [1-8]
Gavin Burkhart '20 [9-13]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4 4 7 10 10 8 5 5 6 3 8 4 5 79 John Lawless '19
Skye Miller '19
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9 7 8 9 6 11 9 9 7 11 3 7 12 108 Anders Ekholm '17
Gabrielle Mascio '18
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 10 10 4 5 11 9 13 8 9 13 9 11 8 120 Tyler Rochon '18 [1-13]
James Emery '18 [1-6]
Thomas Jeffries '18 [7-13]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 7 12 9 7 5 10 11 DSQ 10 9 13 13 10 130 Korbin Kierstead '19
Chris Haisch '19
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 12 11 12 11 12 7 10 7 12 10 10 12 9 135 Alexander Singh '19
Connor Segal '20
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 11 9 11 13 8 13 12 10 13 8 11 8 13 140 Colton Gerber '18 [1-13]
Sofia Gambini '19 [1-4, 11-13]
Kyle Doyle '20 [5-10]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 13 OCS 13 12 13 12 8 11 11 12 12 9 11 151 Paul Hart '19
Bridgette Hindt '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 2 6 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 22 Hector Guzman '20 [1-13]
Maya Weber '20 [1-12]
Charles Hollister '18 [13]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 5 3 1 6 8 4 1 3 4 2 3 2 7 49 Margaret Kilvert '18 [1-13]
Mia Steck '17 [1-2]
Lisa Genthner '19 [3-13]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 1 7 8 3 1 2 2 3 9 7 7 4 56 Vincent Storino '18
Patrick Scollard '17
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 4 3 4 9 9 4 4 2 8 5 5 2 62 Gray Kiger '20 [1-8]
Kyle Mergenthaler '20 [9-13]
Stephen Guglielmo '19 [1-8]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 6 9 2 2 5 3 10 6 DSQ 3 10 3 6 79 Peter Steo '19
Kelsy Waack '18
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 4 5 8 3 4 7 6 5 10 13 4 6 8 83 Austin Haag '20
Michael Gapuz '18
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 7 6 5 5 7 6 5 9 6 5 8 11 3 83 Brad Seferian '19
Emma Archard '18
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers OCS 10 11 9 2 5 11 7 9 6 6 4 11 105 Juan Lejarraga '19 [1-13]
Macy Blakeley '20 [1-6, 11-13]
Morgan Forde '20 [7-10]
Boston University Boston University Terriers OCS 8 9 11 11 11 8 10 5 7 2 10 5 111 Allison Cahn '20
Hannah Davis '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 8 7 4 7 6 10 9 12 12 12 12 9 9 117 Noah Janssen '19
Emma Zalog '20
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 9 11 10 10 10 12 7 8 7 4 11 8 10 117 Kristoffer Olsen '19 [1-13]
Caroline Ware '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Kelly Chang '17 [3-4, 7-13]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 11 12 12 12 12 8 13 11 8 10 13 12 13 147 Ian Palmer '19
Eric Rebellato '17
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 10 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 11 9 13 12 156 Mason Sheen '17
Charles Streitwieser '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1133557799111113
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green22446688101012121
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams33557799111113132
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen44668810101212113
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins55779911111313224
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners88101012121133557
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines99111113132244668
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers77991111131322446
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs66881010121211335
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets10101212113355779
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos111113132244668810
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen131322446688101012
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1212113355779911

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers22446688101012121
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green33557799111113132
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams44668810101212113
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen55779911111313224
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins66881010121211335
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners99111113132244668
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines10101212113355779
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers88101012121133557
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs77991111131322446
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets111113132244668810
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos1212113355779911
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1133557799111113
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers131322446688101012
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Robby Gearon '19 Lexi Pline '19
Terriers Allison Cahn '20 Hannah Davis '19
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Nathaniel Johansson '18 Alyssa Berger '19
Big Green Margaret Kilvert '18 [1-13] Mia Steck '17 [1-2]
Lisa Genthner '19 [3-13]
Fordham University Fordham University Anders Ekholm '17 Gabrielle Mascio '18
Rams Brad Seferian '19 Emma Archard '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Greiner Hobbs '18 Anna Flaherty '20
Statesmen Hector Guzman '20 [1-13] Maya Weber '20 [1-12]
Charles Hollister '18 [13]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Daniel Lawless '17 Anna Palmer '17
Fins Peter Steo '19 Kelsy Waack '18
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Lee Dumaliang '17 [1-13] Abigail Lockler '18 [1-8]
Gavin Burkhart '20 [9-13]
Monarchs Gray Kiger '20 [1-8]
Kyle Mergenthaler '20 [9-13]		 Stephen Guglielmo '19 [1-8]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College John Lawless '19 Skye Miller '19
Privateers Juan Lejarraga '19 [1-13] Macy Blakeley '20 [1-6, 11-13]
Morgan Forde '20 [7-10]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Max Neubelt '17 Garrett Lawlor '20
Mariners Vincent Storino '18 Patrick Scollard '17
University of Michigan University of Michigan Colton Gerber '18 [1-13] Sofia Gambini '19 [1-4, 11-13]
Kyle Doyle '20 [5-10]
Wolverines Austin Haag '20 Michael Gapuz '18
University of Rochester University of Rochester Tyler Rochon '18 [1-13] James Emery '18 [1-6]
Thomas Jeffries '18 [7-13]
Yellowjackets Kristoffer Olsen '19 [1-13] Caroline Ware '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Kelly Chang '17 [3-4, 7-13]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Alexander Singh '19 Connor Segal '20
Wahoos Ian Palmer '19 Eric Rebellato '17
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Korbin Kierstead '19 Chris Haisch '19
Badgers Noah Janssen '19 Emma Zalog '20
Washington College Washington College Paul Hart '19 Bridgette Hindt '18
Shoremen Mason Sheen '17 Charles Streitwieser '20

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From WSW (253°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.25 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 14 kn · N 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →