University of Virginia '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 14.71 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.100 rating points from 88 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 1.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–51 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 5–28 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 18–11 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (78 matches) the record is 27–51 against 20.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 1.96 | 2.51 | 2–10 | 1.3 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.11 | 3.19 | 3–13 | 1.4 | +1.08 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2018-03-03 | GW Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | -1.07 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.32 | 2.31 | 4–10 | 4.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 4.19 | 14–1 | 9.7 | +2.21 | 5.5 | 1% |
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 2.28 | 2.19 | 4–12 | 4.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Charleston Spring Coed Interconference | Skipper | A | 2 | 16.5 | -0.55 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| The Grant Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 1.71 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | B | 12 | 13.4 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.00 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| The Leroy Grant Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.18 |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 14.9 | 1.37 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.4 | 2.48 |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.7 | 1.48 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 2.78 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 15.1 | 2.46 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.4 | 1.16 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.9 | 2.08 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.2 | 3.31 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.8 | 2.39 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 2.43 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.1 | 2.60 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.4 | 3.13 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.8 | 1.76 |
| War Memorial | Crew | A | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Crew | A, B | 14 | 13.0 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 2.39 |
| MAISA Club Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.4 | 3.65 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.9 | 1.98 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alexander Singh |  Norfolk Academy |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
