MAISA Team Race Challenge

HostSt. Mary's
Date04/01/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	16–1
2	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	13–4
3	Fordham University	Rams	12–5
4	Cornell University	Big Red	8–9
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–9
6	University of Virginia	Wahoos	4–10
7	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	3–11
8	Christopher Newport University	Captains	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,474 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 54 of 62 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.376 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.63 ± 0.26: an orderly event, more orderly than 97% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1	10.40 school +0.50, home +0.35	Jonathan Lutz / Elizabeth Dennison 3.28 Kyle Burgess / Shelby Jacobs 3.15 Liam Mccarthy / Hannah Chapman 3.04 14–0 Bradley Adam / Hannah Chapman 3.40 2–1	79%	16–1 (94%)	+2.6
2	Old Dominion University Monarchs	2	9.93 school −0.23	Jack Elkin / Elleanor Wells 3.47 James Jacob / Dane Pedersen 2.94 Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.70	68%	13–4 (76%)	+1.4
3	Fordham University Rams	3	9.89 school −0.08	Will Holz / Charlotte Leclue 3.40 Alecsander Tayler / Katherine Jones 3.49 Matt Cappetta / Lauren Holderman 3.02	66%	12–5 (71%)	+0.7
4	Cornell University Big Red	4	9.31 school +0.13	Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 3.12 Connor Kelter / Julie Barbera 3.15 Alex Woloshyn / Lindsay Gimple 2.86	54%	8–9 (47%)	−1.2
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	8.27	Nicholas Floyd / Catie Hopkins 3.37 Ava Esquier / Laura Whelan 4–8 Keen Butcher / Lucy Sergeant 2.52 4–8 Ava Esquier / Caroline Garth 1–1 Keen Butcher / Laura Whelan 2.32 1–1	35%	5–9 (36%)	+0.0
6	University of Virginia Wahoos	7	7.94 school +0.28	Colin Suvak / Colleen Roney 2.55 Victor Layne / Waverlee Harvey 2.78 Alexander Singh / Dorothy Stump 2.32 2–8 Alexander Singh / Julia Gowell 2.07 2–0 Alexander Singh / Katherine Green 2.08 0–2	29%	4–10 (29%)	−0.0
7	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	8.19 school −0.08	John Lawless / Aidan Molesky 2.57 Andreas Adam / Timothy Montera 2.10 2–6 Zachary Hill / Macy Blakeley 3.57 2–6 Andreas Adam / Macy Blakeley 2.03 1–5 Zachary Hill / Timothy Montera 3.63 1–5	34%	3–11 (21%)	−1.7
8	Christopher Newport University Captains	8	7.48 school +0.07	Spencer Charney / Kaitlyn Reilly 2.28 Vir Menon / Mackenzie Conner 2.35 Austin Powers / Anna Patterson 2.66	20%	1–13 (7%)	−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.40	11.96	16–1	13.4	+1.56	2.5	8%
2	Old Dominion University	9.93	10.41	13–4	11.6	+0.48	0.5	31%
3	Fordham University	9.89	10.13	12–5	11.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
5	University of Pennsylvania	8.27	8.29	5–9	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
6	University of Virginia	7.94	7.93	4–10	4.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
4	Cornell University	9.31	8.94	8–9	9.2	−0.37	0.3	83%
7	SUNY Maritime College	8.19	7.45	3–11	4.7	−0.74	0.9	92%
8	Christopher Newport University	7.48	6.18	1–13	2.8	−1.30	1.5	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.15	4.70	16–1	13.4	+1.56	2.5	8%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.70	4.18	13–4	11.6	+0.48	0.5	31%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.40	3.64	12–5	11.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.49	3.73	12–5	11.3	+0.24	0.1	46%
Ava Esquier	University of Pennsylvania	2.38	2.40	5–9	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Keen Butcher	University of Pennsylvania	2.52	2.53	5–9	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Colin Suvak	University of Virginia	2.55	2.54	4–10	4.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Alexander Singh	University of Virginia	2.32	2.31	4–10	4.0	−0.01	0.0	62%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.40	3.29	2–1	2.1	−0.11	0.0	77%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.12	2.75	8–9	9.2	−0.37	0.3	83%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	3.15	2.79	8–9	9.2	−0.37	0.3	83%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.86	2.49	8–9	9.2	−0.37	0.3	83%
Andreas Adam	SUNY Maritime College	2.10	1.36	3–11	4.7	−0.74	0.9	92%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.57	2.82	3–11	4.7	−0.74	0.9	92%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.57	1.83	3–11	4.7	−0.74	0.9	92%
Vir Menon	Christopher Newport University	2.35	1.06	1–13	2.8	−1.30	1.5	97%
Austin Powers	Christopher Newport University	2.66	1.36	1–13	2.8	−1.30	1.5	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	85%
1	2	Fordham University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
1	3	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	24%	upset
1	4	University of Virginia	Christopher Newport University	58%
1	5	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	84%
1	6	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	65%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	91%
1	8	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	70%
1	9	Fordham University	Cornell University	64%
1	10	University of Virginia	SUNY Maritime College	45%	upset
1	11	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	84%
1	12	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Christopher Newport University	95%
1	13	Cornell University	University of Virginia	79%
1	14	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	83%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	90%
1	16	Old Dominion University	Christopher Newport University	92%
1	17	University of Pennsylvania	University of Virginia	57%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	74%
1	19	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	49%	upset
1	20	Christopher Newport University	SUNY Maritime College	32%	upset
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	89%
1	22	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	87%
1	23	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	75%
1	24	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	92%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	60%
1	26	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	52%
1	27	Fordham University	University of Virginia	89%
1	28	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	86%
2	29	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	85%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	69%
2	31	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	75%
2	32	University of Virginia	Christopher Newport University	58%
2	33	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	84%
2	34	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	65%
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	91%
2	36	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	69%
2	37	Cornell University	Fordham University	36%	upset
2	38	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	54%
2	39	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	83%
2	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Christopher Newport University	94%
2	41	Cornell University	University of Virginia	78%
2	42	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	83%
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	89%
2	44	Old Dominion University	Christopher Newport University	92%
2	45	University of Virginia	University of Pennsylvania	43%	upset
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	74%
2	47	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	51%
2	48	SUNY Maritime College	Christopher Newport University	66%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	88%
2	50	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	87%
2	51	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	75%
2	52	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	91%
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	60%
2	54	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	47%	upset
2	55	Fordham University	University of Virginia	89%
2	56	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	85%
4	57	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	50%
4	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	74%
4	59	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	65%
4	60	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	68%
4	61	Fordham University	Cornell University	64%
4	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	60%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	Rams	Red	Quakers	Wahoos	Privateers	Captains
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	7–0	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Christopher Newport University Captains	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	Rams	Red	Quakers	Wahoos	Privateers	Captains
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Monarchs	Rams	Red
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
2	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
3	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
4	Wahoos	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
5	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
6	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
7	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
8	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Captains	2-3-6
9	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
10	Wahoos	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
11	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
12	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Captains	1-4-6
13	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
14	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
15	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
16	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
17	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
19	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
20	Captains	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
22	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
23	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
24	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
25	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
26	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
27	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
28	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
29	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
30	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
31	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
32	Wahoos	2-3-5	def.	Captains	1-4-6
33	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
34	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
35	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
36	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Captains	2-3-6
37	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
38	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
39	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
40	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
41	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
42	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6 DNF
43	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
45	Wahoos	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
46	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
47	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
48	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Captains	2-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
50	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
51	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
52	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
54	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
55	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
56	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
57	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
58	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
59	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
60	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
61	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
62	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Liam Mccarthy '19	Hannah Chapman '17 Elizabeth Dennison '17 Shelby Jacobs '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Elleanor Wells '18 Dane Pedersen '19 Carter Little '18
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Matt Cappetta '19 Will Holz '17	Katherine Jones '18 Lauren Holderman '18 Charlotte Leclue '19
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Woloshyn '17 Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18	Lindsay Gimple '17 Diana Otis '19 Julie Barbera '17
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Ava Esquier '20 Keen Butcher '18 Nicholas Floyd '19	Laura Whelan '20 Caroline Garth '17 Lucy Sergeant '18 Catie Hopkins '17
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Alexander Singh '19 Colin Suvak '19 Victor Layne '20	Dorothy Stump '18 Katherine Green '19 Julia Gowell '18 Colleen Roney '18 Waverlee Harvey '18
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Andreas Adam '18 John Lawless '19 Zachary Hill '18	Macy Blakeley '20 Timothy Montera '18 Aidan Molesky '20
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Austin Powers '17 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20	Anna Patterson '20 Kaitlyn Reilly '18 Mackenzie Conner '20

Conditions — 04/01/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1012.4 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.2 kn

avg · max 10.3 kn

Gusts to 21.6 kn

From NNW (337°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1012.4 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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