University of Virginia '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 99.20 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.088 rating points from 321 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–19 (0%) as crew 23–58 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 0–19 | 5–40 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 0–7 |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | — | 18–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (100 matches) the record is 23–77 against 18.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | crew | 2.56 | 3.12 | 2–10 | 1.3 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.05 | -1.95 | 0–14 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 2.56 | 3.64 | 3–13 | 1.4 | +1.08 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | crew | 2.55 | -0.45 | 0–17 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 2018-03-03 | GW Team Race | skipper | 0.95 | -2.05 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 2.67 | -0.33 | 0–7 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | crew | 2.55 | 2.54 | 4–10 | 4.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | crew | 2.18 | 4.39 | 14–1 | 9.7 | +2.21 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 11.0 | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Crew | TR | 17 | 0% | — |
| GW Women's Invite Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 10.9 | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | A | 16 | 11.3 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | A | 12 | 11.5 | — |
| South Qualifier | Crew | A | 12 | 5.7 | — |
| Riley Cup | Crew | A | 12 | 10.8 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 18.8 | 0.62 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | 0.95 |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 14.5 | — |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Crew | A | 7 | 5.4 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Edward Teach Memorial | Crew | A | 10 | 2.7 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 11.2 | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 8.0 | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| The Leroy Grant Trophy | Crew | A | 11 | 3.6 | — |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Crew | B | 11 | 13.2 | — |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 5.4 | — |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Crew | B | 12 | 3.9 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Crew | B | 16 | 14.6 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Crew | B | 14 | 8.3 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| William and Mary Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 0.78 |
| Webb Regatta | Crew | A | 11 | 3.4 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 10.0 | — |
| ODU Open | Crew | B | 11 | 5.0 | — |
| MAISA Women’s Championship Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Crew | A, B | 16 | 6.8 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Crew | B | 9 | 5.9 | — |
| War Memorial | Crew | A, B | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Teach Memorial | Crew | B | 9 | 3.2 | — |
| Riley Cup | Crew | B | 6 | 9.8 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 12.5 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 8.6 | — |
| MAISA Club Championship | Crew | A | 9 | 3.4 | — |
| Jefferson Cup | Crew | A | 9 | 2.2 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| William & Mary Spring Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.0 | 2.02 |
| ODU Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.9 | 1.05 |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Crew | A, B | 12 | 10.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.0 | 0.72 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Crew | B | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.8 | 0.12 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.5 | -0.24 |
| Luce Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 4.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
