Hanbury Trophy

HostChristopher Newport
Date03/26/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
Boat420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Eckerd College	Tritons	187
2	Christopher Newport University	Lady Captains	191
3	George Washington University	Colonials	200
4	Christopher Newport University	Captains	205
5	University of Virginia	Wahoos	263
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	317
7	Washington College	Shoremen	393
8	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	423

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
Christopher Newport University	Captains A	2	7	4	15	7	1	5	5	4	11	3	1	3	1	4	1	74	Austin Powers '17 [1-16] No Show [1-8] Matteo Murrelle '19 [9-16]
George Washington University	Colonials A	3	4	9	1	2	6	11	6	9	3	2	6	1	6	12	2	83	Adam Didomizio '19 Samuel Mandell '19
Eckerd College	Tritons B	15	5	8	11	1	4	7	1	1	4	6	3	5	4	3	13	91	Samuel Normington '18 Kim Kusminsky '19
Christopher Newport University	Lady Captains A	6	2	2	13	5	13	1	4	2	1	9	10	8	3	7	9	95	Amanda Attardi '17 Laura Kilgore '17
Eckerd College	Tritons A	4	1	1	2	3	2	12	3	12	12	1	DSQ	7	2	10	7	96	Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 Irene Dobbs '19
Christopher Newport University	Lady Captains B	11	8	6	4	8	5	9	2	5	5	4	2	11	7	5	4	96	Samara Leith '19 Kaitlyn Reilly '18
George Washington University	Colonials B	7	6	3	5	9	12	6	7	3	2	13	4	10	14	11	5	117	Sarah Alexander '19 Benjaim Helfand '16
University of Virginia	Wahoos A	12	10	12	3	12	9	8	10	10	6	5	8	2	11	2	3	123	Julia Gowell '18 [1-16] Katherine Green '19 [1-10] Colleen Roney '18 [11-16]
Christopher Newport University	Captains B	8	12	14	9	6	7	10	9	6	8	7	9	6	8	6	6	131	Anders Hudson '17 [1-16] Matteo Murrelle '19 [1-8] No Show [9-16]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs B	5	15	11	7	11	8	4	8	8	13	8	11	9	5	1	14	138	Brendon Wilkins '18 Victoria Ewing '19
University of Virginia	Wahoos B	1	13	13	12	4	3	3	11	11	7	12	7	4	15	14	10	140	Anna Louise Devanny '17 [1-16] Colleen Roney '18 [1-10] Katherine Green '19 [11-16]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs A	13	16	10	8	14	10	2	13	15	9	11	5	14	13	15	11	179	Olivia Windemuller '19 Molly Sternberg '17
Washington College	Shoremen A	9	3	5	6	15	14	16	16	16	10	15	12	12	10	13	12	184	Mason Sheen '17 Allison Cochran '18
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack A	10	11	15	16	13	11	13	15	13	14	10	13	13	12	8	8	195	Mark Thompson '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Andrew Edwards '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-16] Andrew Edwards '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Mark Thompson '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-16]
Washington College	Shoremen B	DNS	9	7	10	16	16	14	12	7	15	14	14	DSQ	16	9	16	209	Paul Hart '19 Bridgette Hindt '18
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack B	14	14	16	14	10	15	15	14	14	16	16	15	15	9	16	15	228	Matthew Dockstader '17 [1-2, 4-10] Zack Morey '17 [3, 11-16] Zack Morey '17 [1-2, 4-10] Matthew Dockstader '17 [3, 11-16]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4
Christopher Newport University Lady Captains	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	16	16	16	16	15	15	15	15
Eckerd College Tritons	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
George Washington University Colonials	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
University of Virginia Wahoos	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10
Washington College Shoremen	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B	16B
Christopher Newport University Captains	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12
Christopher Newport University Lady Captains	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7
Eckerd College Tritons	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14
George Washington University Colonials	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16
Old Dominion University Monarchs	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	11
University of Virginia Wahoos	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
Washington College Shoremen	16	16	16	16	15	15	15	15	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17 [1-16]	No Show [1-8] Matteo Murrelle '19 [9-16]
Captains	Anders Hudson '17 [1-16]	Matteo Murrelle '19 [1-8] No Show [9-16]
Christopher Newport University	Amanda Attardi '17	Laura Kilgore '17
Lady Captains	Samara Leith '19	Kaitlyn Reilly '18
Eckerd College	Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	Irene Dobbs '19
Tritons	Samuel Normington '18	Kim Kusminsky '19
George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	Samuel Mandell '19
Colonials	Sarah Alexander '19	Benjaim Helfand '16
North Carolina State University	Mark Thompson '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Andrew Edwards '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-16]	Andrew Edwards '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Mark Thompson '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-16]
Wolfpack	Matthew Dockstader '17 [1-2, 4-10] Zack Morey '17 [3, 11-16]	Zack Morey '17 [1-2, 4-10] Matthew Dockstader '17 [3, 11-16]
Old Dominion University	Olivia Windemuller '19	Molly Sternberg '17
Monarchs	Brendon Wilkins '18	Victoria Ewing '19
University of Virginia	Julia Gowell '18 [1-16]	Katherine Green '19 [1-10] Colleen Roney '18 [11-16]
Wahoos	Anna Louise Devanny '17 [1-16]	Colleen Roney '18 [1-10] Katherine Green '19 [11-16]
Washington College	Mason Sheen '17	Allison Cochran '18
Shoremen	Paul Hart '19	Bridgette Hindt '18

Conditions — 03/26/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1025.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.3 kn

avg · max 8.6 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From NE (50°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1025.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · N 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Christopher Newport: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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