Christopher Newport University '17
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.26 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 72 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.95 (fleet 2.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–46 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 13–16 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 10–28 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 26–46 against 27.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.66 | 1.36 | 1–13 | 2.8 | −1.30 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 3.71 | 12–3 | 8.2 | +1.34 | 3.4 | 3% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.48 | -0.52 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| 2015-03-21 | C.J. Woollum Team Race | skipper | 2.22 | 1.25 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.97 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 2.16 | 1.72 | 4–12 | 4.8 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 2.08 | 2.81 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 44% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| The Leroy Grant Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.6 | 2.59 |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.5 | 2.92 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 16.3 | 1.34 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.0 | 2.23 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.2 | 3.03 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 2.82 |
| Laser Elimination Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.2 | 4.03 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 3.04 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 1.71 |
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.8 | 3.46 |
| The Leroy Grant | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.6 | 3.13 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.6 | 2.09 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 2.62 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 17 | 13.6 | 2.18 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.4 | 2.44 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 2.07 |
| MAISA Laser Eliminator Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.4 | 2.90 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.2 | 1.68 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.1 | 3.05 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| South Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 13 | 2.0 | 3.43 |
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.8 | 1.62 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| C.J. Woollum Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.0 | 1.99 |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.6 | 1.63 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.5 | 1.48 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 1.85 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.3 | 1.71 |
| MAISA South Dinghy Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.4 | 1.32 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.8 | 2.34 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 2.27 |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 2.55 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.6 | 2.64 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.9 | 2.60 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.2 | 3.47 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.8 | 1.80 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 2.2 | 2.65 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 1.91 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.2 | 1.28 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 1.55 |
| Central Fall #2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 1.82 |
| Central Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.0 | 2.36 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
