Laser South

HostNavy
Date09/12/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	42
2	George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	54
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	57
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Addison Hackstaff '18	67
5	George Washington University	Daniel Delbello '17	91
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Markus Edegran '16	106
7	Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	110
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Liam Mccarthy '19	110
9	Old Dominion University	Ethan Lounsbury '17	114
10	Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	126
11	U. S. Naval Academy	Michael Madigan '17	130
12	Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	133
13	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	143
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Peter Hogan '18	156
15	Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	172
16	William and Mary	Eric Roos '19	185
17	Penn State University	John Shanahan '16	212
18	Washington College	Alexander Smith '17	231
19	University of Virginia	Aidan Toms '19	244
20	University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Samuel Haksteen '17	249

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	3	3	1	2	2	2	2	2	8	5	2	9	1	42
George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	4	1	4	1	1	4	10	15	3	2	3	1	5	54
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	1	4	3	3	5	13	1	3	4	9	1	2	8	57
U. S. Naval Academy	Addison Hackstaff '18	9	8	2	6	13	6	3	1	1	1	5	8	4	67
George Washington University	Daniel Delbello '17	13	2	10	5	3	5	12	8	12	3	7	5	6	91
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Markus Edegran '16	5	5	6	7	4	14	7	14	2	17	12	11	2	106
Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	10	12	11	18	7	1	9	4	9	12	6	4	7	110
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Liam Mccarthy '19	14	9	7	15	12	3	5	11	6	7	15	3	3	110
Old Dominion University	Ethan Lounsbury '17	7	14	14	14	10	9	13	5	5	4	4	6	9	114
Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	2	15	13	10	6	8	4	6	14	16	8	10	14	126
U. S. Naval Academy	Michael Madigan '17	15	7	5	9	11	15	11	7	7	8	9	13	13	130
Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	6	17	9	4	9	12	6	10	11	6	14	12	17	133
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	8	6	12	8	8	10	8	17	16	13	11	15	11	143
U. S. Naval Academy	Peter Hogan '18	12	13	15	12	14	7	18	12	10	10	10	7	16	156
Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	16	11	8	11	16	11	19	16	13	11	16	14	10	172
William and Mary	Eric Roos '19	11	10	16	13	17	16	16	9	17	18	13	17	12	185
Penn State University	John Shanahan '16	17	16	18	17	15	17	14	18	15	15	19	16	15	212
Washington College	Alexander Smith '17	18	RAF	17	16	19	18	15	19	18	14	18	18	20	231
University of Virginia	Aidan Toms '19	20	DNF	19	19	18	19	17	13	19	20	20	20	19	244
University of Maryland/Baltimore County	Samuel Haksteen '17	19	18	20	BKD	20	20	20	20	20	19	17	19	18	249

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 20 boats · 13 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	13/13	3.06	4.64	+1.58	83rd → 99th	8.4	1%	3.2 / 7.6
2	Brendan Shanahan '17	George Washington University Colonials 1	13/13	2.80	3.97	+1.18	76th → 95th	5.1	1%	4.2 / 8.4
3	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	13/13	2.64	3.98	+1.34	69th → 95th	6.7	1%	4.4 / 8.8
4	Addison Hackstaff '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	13/13	2.81	3.66	+0.84	76th → 93rd	2.9	13%	5.2 / 8.5
5	Daniel Delbello '17	George Washington University Colonials 2	13/13	2.45	3.12	+0.68	62nd → 84th	2.0	16%	7.0 / 9.4
6	Markus Edegran '16	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	13/13	2.71	2.61	−0.10	72nd → 68th	0.1	45%	8.2 / 8.6
7	Jack Marshall '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	13/13	2.78	2.50	−0.28	75th → 64th	0.4	53%	8.5 / 8.5
7	Liam Mccarthy '19	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	13/13	2.16	2.65	+0.50	56th → 70th	1.1	27%	8.5 / 10.4
9	Ethan Lounsbury '17	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	13/13	2.21	2.62	+0.41	58th → 69th	0.8	30%	8.8 / 10.1
10	Alec Chicoine '18	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	13/13	2.20	2.34	+0.15	58th → 60th	0.1	42%	9.7 / 10.2
11	Michael Madigan '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	13/13	2.57	2.38	−0.19	67th → 61st	0.2	64%	10.0 / 9.1
12	Joseph David '16	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	13/13	2.49	2.09	−0.40	63rd → 54th	0.8	67%	10.2 / 9.3
13	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	13/13	2.13	2.11	−0.03	56th → 55th	0.0	61%	11.0 / 10.4
14	Peter Hogan '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	13/13	2.10	1.90	−0.20	55th → 48th	0.2	76%	12.0 / 10.4
15	Austin Powers '17	Christopher Newport University	13/13	2.06	1.56	−0.51	53rd → 39th	1.5	87%	13.2 / 10.6
16	Eric Roos '19	William and Mary	13/13	1.02	1.40	+0.37	23rd → 34th	0.7	60%	14.2 / 13.6
17	John Shanahan '16	Penn State University	13/13	1.15	0.94	−0.20	25th → 21st	0.2	87%	16.3 / 13.2
18	Alexander Smith '17	Washington College	13/13	0.89	0.34	−0.55	21st → 11th	1.4	95%	17.8 / 13.9
19	Aidan Toms '19	University of Virginia	13/13	1.03^u	-0.75	−1.79	24th → 1st	12.8	99%	18.8 / 13.5
20	Samuel Haksteen '17	University of Maryland/Baltimore County	13/13	0.21	-1.02	−1.23	9th → 1st	4.3	98%	19.3 / 15.5

Conditions — 09/12/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1006.1 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 71°F

Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.0 kn

avg · max 8.2 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine4.5 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1006.1 hPa Rain0.72 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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