George Washington University '17
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.39 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 108 | Fall 2016 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.96 (fleet 4.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 110–114 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 5 | 42–36 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 7–17 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 6 | 58–32 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 3–29 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (224 matches) the record is 110–114 against 111.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.83 | 3.64 | 8–7 | 8.6 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.90 | 3.20 | 6–7 | 7.8 | −0.71 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.76 | 4.66 | 11–8 | 7.8 | +0.90 | 2.1 | 7% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.80 | 4.61 | 7–5 | 4.9 | +0.81 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 2017-03-04 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 3.88 | 10–9 | 8.6 | +0.34 | 0.3 | 33% |
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.54 | 2.17 | 2–12 | 4.8 | −1.37 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.22 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.25 | 3.26 | 4–10 | 4.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.21 | 2.82 | 5–2 | 5.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.22 | 8–10 | 8.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2015-03-21 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 3.39 | 14–1 | 13.5 | +0.53 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.14 | 3.42 | 15–5 | 14.1 | +0.28 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 3.12 | 3.50 | 12–4 | 11.4 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.77 | -0.23 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | -0.07 | 0–15 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.79 | 2.33 | 3–11 | 3.8 | −0.46 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.5 | 4.54 |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.3 | 3.74 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.9 | 4.37 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 3.62 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.9 | 4.59 |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.2 | 4.88 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.2 | 4.12 |
| LaserPerformance Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.7 | 3.46 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.7 | 4.70 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.1 | 4.28 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.5 | 4.18 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 4.16 |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 4.07 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.8 | 3.51 |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.8 | 4.16 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 4.12 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 4.36 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.5 | 3.59 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.2 | 4.30 |
| LaserPerformance Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.0 | 3.48 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.7 | 3.38 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.2 | 3.57 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.2 | 3.76 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.4 | 2.81 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.7 | 2.28 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 3.61 |
| MAISA South Dinghy Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.6 | 3.27 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.3 | 3.74 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 3.36 |
| Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 3.64 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.5 | 4.16 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.8 | 2.32 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.7 | 2.77 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 3.94 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 2.91 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.9 | 3.36 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.2 | 2.33 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.2 | 2.94 |
| Central Fall #2 | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.4 | 2.23 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | 3.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
