Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/15/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	16–2
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–3
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	13–5
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	13–5
5	Brown University	Bears	11–4
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	11–4
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–7
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–7
9	Fordham University	Rams	6–9
10	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5–10
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	5–10
12	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	4–11
13	University of South Florida	Bulls	4–11
14	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	4–11
15	Eckerd College	Tritons	3–12
16	George Washington University	Colonials	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,456 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 98 of 126 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.428 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.17: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	12.38 school −0.05	Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.61 Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.91 14–2 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.90 12–1 Alex Post / Eliana Michaels 3.86 4–1 Nevin Snow / Elizabeth Mullarney 4.67 2–0	77%	16–2 (89%)	+2.2
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.57 school +0.07	Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.66 11–3 Ian Barrows / Charlotte Belling 4.27 5–3 Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 4.13 7–0 Christopher Segerblom / Meredith Megarry 4.04 3–2 Ian Barrows / Natalya Doris 3.94 4–0 Max Nickbarg / Natalya Doris 3.09 4–0 Ian Barrows / William Feldman 4.18 2–0 Christopher Segerblom / William Feldman 4.04 1–1 Max Nickbarg / Meredith Megarry 3.27 1–0 Graham Landy / Sarah Smith 4.50 1–0 Ian Barrows / Katherine Gaumond 4.28 1–0 Christopher Segerblom / Sarah Smith 3.99 1–0 Christopher Segerblom / Katherine Gaumond 4.15 1–0 Joseph Kiss / William Feldman 1–0 Graham Landy / Charlotte Belling 4.66 1–0 Max Nickbarg / Sarah Smith 3.23 1–0	84%	15–3 (83%)	−0.1
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	11.50 school +0.17, home +0.28	Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.97 7–5 Michael Popp / Chelsea Smith 3.55 5–5 Mary Hall / Elizabeth Morrison 3.85 5–3 Michael Popp / Connor Hendi 3.31 7–0 Michael Grove / Aaron Hull 3.82 4–0 Patrick Snow / Charles Peck 3.32 4–0 Mary Hall / Patrick Snow 3.80 1–2 Patrick Snow / Elizabeth Morrison 3.38 2–0 Patrick Snow / Alexandra Asuncion 3.45 1–0 Michael Grove / Elizabeth Morrison 3.90 1–0 Patrick Snow / Aaron Hull 3.30 1–0 Patrick Snow / Chelsea Smith 3.37 1–0	63%	13–5 (72%)	+1.6
4	College of Charleston Cougars	4	12.03 school +0.15	Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.25 Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll 3.67 11–5 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.93 9–1 Ryan Davidson / Roy Shaw 3.81 4–4 Charles Rees / Emily Stuart 3.73 2–0	72%	13–5 (72%)	+0.0
5	Brown University Bears	7	11.03 school +0.24	Lucas Adams / Louisa Chafee 3.80 8–4 Tyler Rice / Helen Lord 3.48 9–3 Judge Ryan / Jessica O'Dell 3.60 9–3 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.38 5–0 Tyler Rice / Drew Shea 3.58 0–1 Judge Ryan / Pearson Potts 3.67 0–1 Pearson Potts / Jessica O'Dell 3.37 1–0 Drew Shea / Lydia Whiteford 3.19 1–0	61%	11–4 (73%)	+1.9
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	11.82 school +0.36	Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 4.13 5–4 Joshua Greenslade / Nicole Deangeli 4.00 3–4 John Wallace / Allison Shane 3.33 3–4 Fletcher Sims / Allison Shane 4.14 6–0 Joshua Greenslade / Kelley Merryman 3.98 5–0 Ian Liberty / Nicole Deangeli 3.37 3–0 John Wallace / Nicole Deangeli 3.32 2–0 Joshua Greenslade / Allison Shane 4.01 2–0 John Wallace / Nicholas Clemence 3.36 1–0 John Wallace / Catherine Shanahan 3.12 1–0 Joshua Greenslade / Catherine Shanahan 3.83 1–0 John Wallace / Thad Bench 3.26 1–0	74%	11–4 (73%)	−0.1
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	5	11.26 school +0.07	Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 3.70 6–6 Matthew Wefer / Avery Plough 4.13 5–5 Evan Read / Abigail Rohman 3.35 4–3 Scott Houck / Julia Mckown 3.34 3–4 Scott Houck / Nathaniel Greason 3.49 2–1 Deirdre Lambert / Matthew Wefer 3.96 2–1 Evan Read / Avery Plough 3.36 2–1	65%	8–7 (53%)	−1.7
8	Tufts University Jumbos	9	10.78 school +0.09	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.97 7–7 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 3.52 7–7 David Liebenberg / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.25 5–4 David Liebenberg / Alexander Tong 3.01 3–3 William Haeger / Sara Makaretz 3.89 1–0 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Casey Gowrie 3.43 1–0	56%	8–7 (53%)	−0.3
9	Fordham University Rams	10	9.34 school +0.20	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 2.84 Alecsander Tayler / Connor Murphy 3.03 Connor Godfrey / Madeleine Sims 3.23 4–5 Connor Godfrey / Daniel Kraus 3.04 2–4	34%	6–9 (40%)	+0.8
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	13	8.83 school −0.46	Jacob Spracher / Katelyn Talley 2.72 Daniel Lochner / Colin Voigt 4–9 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.88 5–7 Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.63 0–3 Joseph David / Colin Voigt 2.78 1–1	27%	5–10 (33%)	+1.0
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	12	9.17 school +0.06	Eddie Cox / Diana Weston 3.04 4–8 William Godfrey / Jane Rew 2.88 4–8 Elliott Morrill / Julia Oak 3.09 4–8 Eddie Cox / Jane Rew 3.41 1–2 Elliott Morrill / Michael Deady 3.12 1–2 Alex Nugent / Julia Oak 1–1 William Godfrey / Julia Oak 2.77 0–1	32%	5–10 (33%)	+0.2
12	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	16	7.83 school −0.57	Nick Valente / George Roberson 3.60 Matthew Schoene / Paige Conlin 2.25 Arthur Libby / Carly Mayhood 2.43 1–7 Arthur Libby / Andrew Haggerty 2.54 3–4	14%	4–11 (27%)	+2.0
13	University of South Florida Bulls	8	10.83 school +0.14	Fernando Monllor / Ali Yarbrough 3.49 Christopher Stocke / Rebecca Campbell 4.00 Connor Brady / Kristen Walker 3.15 1–7 Connor Brady / Katie Berg 3.18 3–4	58%	4–11 (27%)	−4.7
14	University of Wisconsin Badgers	11	9.23 school −0.10	Michael Lee / Kelsea Kierstead Connor Trepton / Charles Bocklet 2.98 2–7 George Kutschenreuter / Charles Bocklet 3.06 2–4 Connor Trepton / Katrina Debbink 2.99 2–4 George Kutschenreuter / Elliot Busta 3.08 2–3 George Kutschenreuter / Katrina Debbink 3.28 0–4	33%	4–11 (27%)	−1.0
15	Eckerd College Tritons	15	8.02 school −0.38	Robert Savoie / Meredith Weber 2.81 Walker Banks / Jessica Resnick 2.65 Tony Collins / Sarah Hanson 2.76	16%	3–12 (20%)	+0.6
16	George Washington University Colonials	14	7.99 school −0.23	Daniel Delbello / Meagan Murphy 2.91 Colin Kennedy / Sarah Mccormack 2.26 Brendan Shanahan / Matthew Ricci 2.93	16%	0–15 (0%)	−2.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
12	SUNY Maritime College	7.83	8.95	4–11	2.0	+1.13	1.7	11%
1	Georgetown University	12.38	13.49	16–2	13.8	+1.11	1.6	13%
5	Brown University	11.03	11.88	11–4	9.1	+0.86	1.2	17%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	11.50	12.09	13–5	11.4	+0.59	0.7	25%
10	Old Dominion University	8.83	9.32	5–10	4.0	+0.49	0.4	35%
15	Eckerd College	8.02	8.41	3–12	2.4	+0.39	0.2	43%
9	Fordham University	9.34	9.72	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	40%
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.17	9.26	5–10	4.8	+0.09	0.0	58%
4	College of Charleston	12.03	12.03	13–5	13.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.82	11.79	11–4	11.1	−0.03	0.0	66%
2	Yale University	12.57	12.52	15–3	15.1	−0.05	0.0	68%
8	Tufts University	10.78	10.62	8–7	8.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
14	University of Wisconsin	9.23	8.75	4–11	5.0	−0.48	0.3	85%
7	Dartmouth College	11.26	10.53	8–7	9.7	−0.72	0.9	93%
13	University of South Florida	10.83	8.67	4–11	8.7	−2.16	7.2	>99%
16	George Washington University	7.99	4.99	0–15	2.4	≤−3.00	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Max Nickbarg	Yale University	3.09	6.09	6–0	5.6	≥+3.00	0.6	66%
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.37	6.37	3–0	2.9	≥+3.00	0.2	89%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.32	6.32	9–0	7.0	≥+3.00	4.2	4%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.60	4.72	4–11	2.0	+1.13	1.7	11%
Arthur Libby	SUNY Maritime College	2.43	3.56	4–11	2.0	+1.13	1.7	11%
Matthew Schoene	SUNY Maritime College	2.25	3.38	4–11	2.0	+1.13	1.7	11%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.61	4.72	16–2	13.8	+1.11	1.6	13%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.90	5.02	16–2	13.8	+1.11	1.6	13%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.91	6.02	16–2	13.8	+1.11	1.6	13%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.48	4.29	9–4	7.3	+0.81	1.0	20%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.80	4.41	8–4	6.9	+0.61	0.5	32%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.97	4.56	12–5	10.4	+0.59	0.7	25%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.55	4.12	12–5	10.5	+0.57	0.6	26%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.88	4.36	5–10	4.0	+0.49	0.4	35%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.72	3.21	5–10	4.0	+0.49	0.4	35%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	2.58	3.06	4–9	3.2	+0.48	0.3	38%
Robert Savoie	Eckerd College	2.81	3.20	3–12	2.4	+0.39	0.2	43%
Walker Banks	Eckerd College	2.65	3.04	3–12	2.4	+0.39	0.2	43%
Tony Collins	Eckerd College	2.76	3.15	3–12	2.4	+0.39	0.2	43%
Will Holz	Fordham University	2.84	3.22	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	40%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.03	3.41	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	40%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.23	3.61	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	40%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.04	3.14	5–10	4.8	+0.09	0.0	58%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.09	3.18	5–10	4.8	+0.09	0.0	58%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.25	4.25	13–5	13.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.93	3.93	13–5	13.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	3.67	3.67	13–5	13.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.13	4.10	11–4	11.1	−0.03	0.0	66%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.00	3.97	11–4	11.1	−0.03	0.0	66%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.88	2.83	4–9	4.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.13	4.05	13–3	13.2	−0.08	0.0	69%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.33	3.24	8–4	8.2	−0.09	0.0	70%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.66	4.56	13–3	13.2	−0.10	0.0	71%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.85	3.73	6–5	6.3	−0.12	0.0	70%
William Haeger	Tufts University	3.97	3.82	8–7	8.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.25	3.10	8–7	8.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.52	3.36	8–7	8.4	−0.16	0.0	72%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.27	4.06	12–3	12.4	−0.21	0.1	76%
Michael Lee	University of Wisconsin	2.96	2.48	4–11	5.0	−0.48	0.3	85%
George Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	3.06	2.57	4–11	5.0	−0.48	0.3	85%
Connor Trepton	University of Wisconsin	2.98	2.50	4–11	5.0	−0.48	0.3	85%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	3.35	2.84	6–4	6.8	−0.51	0.3	86%
Matthew Wefer	Dartmouth College	4.13	3.53	5–5	6.0	−0.60	0.4	88%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.70	2.98	8–7	9.7	−0.72	0.9	93%
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.34	2.31	5–5	6.7	−1.03	1.3	96%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.49	1.33	4–11	8.7	−2.16	7.2	>99%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	4.00	1.84	4–11	8.7	−2.16	7.2	>99%
Daniel Delbello	George Washington University	2.91	-0.09	0–15	2.4	≤−3.00	4.1	>99%
Colin Kennedy	George Washington University	2.26	-0.74	0–15	2.4	≤−3.00	4.1	>99%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	2.93	-0.07	0–15	2.4	≤−3.00	4.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Yale University	Tufts University	88%
1	2	Georgetown University	Brown University	78%
1	3	University of South Florida	George Washington University	95%
1	4	University of Wisconsin	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
1	5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	50%	upset
1	6	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	32%	upset
1	7	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	83%
1	8	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	70%
1	9	Yale University	University of South Florida	79%
1	10	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	11	Tufts University	George Washington University	95%
1	12	Brown University	University of Wisconsin	89%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	93%
1	14	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	96%
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	16	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	97%
1	17	Yale University	George Washington University	98%
1	18	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	73%
1	20	College of Charleston	Brown University	71%
1	21	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	73%
1	22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	10%	upset
1	23	Yale University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	24	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	99%
1	25	Tufts University	Fordham University	82%
1	26	Brown University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	27	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	98%
1	28	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	29	University of South Florida	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	77%
1	31	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	32	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	27%	upset
1	33	Fordham University	George Washington University	77%
1	34	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	40%	upset
1	35	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	36	Brown University	Eckerd College	96%
1	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	74%
1	38	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
1	39	Yale University	Fordham University	92%
1	40	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	41	SUNY Maritime College	George Washington University	47%	upset
1	42	Eckerd College	University of Wisconsin	26%	upset
1	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	72%
1	44	Brown University	Dartmouth College	44%	upset
1	45	Fordham University	University of South Florida	17%	upset
1	46	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	41%	upset
1	47	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	48	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	62%
1	49	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	96%
1	50	University of Wisconsin	Dartmouth College	21%	upset
1	51	Tufts University	University of South Florida	46%	upset
1	52	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	54	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	98%
1	55	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	85%
1	56	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	86%
1	57	Georgetown University	Tufts University	84%
1	58	Brown University	University of South Florida	48%	upset
1	59	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	92%
1	60	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	98%
1	61	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	28%	upset
1	62	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	83%
1	63	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	80%
1	64	Georgetown University	George Washington University	99%
1	65	University of Wisconsin	University of South Florida	17%	upset
1	66	Fordham University	Eckerd College	79%
1	67	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	92%
1	68	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	69	Yale University	Brown University	85%
1	70	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	67%
1	71	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	78%
1	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	68%
1	73	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	95%
1	74	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	31%	upset
1	75	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	82%
1	76	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	77	University of Wisconsin	George Washington University	78%
1	78	College of Charleston	Fordham University	94%
1	79	SUNY Maritime College	Eckerd College	46%	upset
1	80	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	95%
1	81	Brown University	Tufts University	61%
1	82	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of South Florida	17%	upset
1	83	Georgetown University	Yale University	33%	upset
1	84	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	85	Eckerd College	George Washington University	51%
1	86	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	56%
1	87	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	38%	upset
1	88	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	66%
1	89	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	90	University of South Florida	Dartmouth College	33%	upset
1	91	Tufts University	Eckerd College	94%
1	92	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	93	Fordham University	University of Wisconsin	51%
1	94	Yale University	Old Dominion University	98%
1	95	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
1	96	Brown University	George Washington University	91%
1	97	College of Charleston	Tufts University	77%
1	98	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	81%
1	99	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	92%
1	100	Yale University	Eckerd College	98%
1	101	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
1	102	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	97%
1	103	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	87%
1	104	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	78%
1	105	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	87%
1	106	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	29%	upset
1	107	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	54%
1	108	Yale University	Dartmouth College	81%
1	109	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	71%
1	110	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	6%	upset
1	111	SUNY Maritime College	University of Wisconsin	16%	upset
1	112	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
1	113	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	114	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	68%
1	115	College of Charleston	George Washington University	98%
1	116	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	87%
1	117	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	118	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	55%
1	119	College of Charleston	Yale University	28%	upset
1	120	Brown University	Fordham University	84%
4	121	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
4	122	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	60%
4	123	College of Charleston	Yale University	28%	upset
4	124	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
4	125	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	28%	upset
4	126	Yale University	Georgetown University	67%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Bulldogs	Midshipmen	Cougars	Bears	Seahawks	Green	Jumbos	Rams	Monarchs	Statesmen	Privateers	Bulls	Badgers	Tritons	Colonials
Georgetown University Hoyas	14–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	13–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	12–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	12–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	11–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	11–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–7	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	L	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	L	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
George Washington University Colonials	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Bulldogs	Midshipmen	Cougars
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–1	✕	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	W	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–2	L	L	✕	W
College of Charleston Cougars	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
3	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
4	Badgers	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
5	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
6	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
7	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
8	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
11	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
13	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
14	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
15	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
16	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
19	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
20	Cougars	1-5-6	def.	Bears	2-3-4 DSQ
21	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
22	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
23	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
24	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
25	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
26	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
27	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
28	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
29	Bulls	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
30	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
31	Bulldogs	2-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-3-6 DSQ,DSQ
32	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
33	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
34	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
35	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
37	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
38	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
39	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
40	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
41	Privateers	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
42	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
43	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
44	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
45	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
46	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
47	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
48	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
50	Badgers	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
51	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
52	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
54	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
56	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
57	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
58	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6 DNF
59	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6 DNF
60	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
61	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
62	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
64	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
65	Badgers	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
66	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
67	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5 DSQ
68	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
69	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
70	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
71	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
72	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
73	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
74	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
75	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
76	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
77	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
78	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
79	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
80	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
81	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
82	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
83	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
84	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
85	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
86	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
87	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
88	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
89	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
90	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
91	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
92	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
93	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
94	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
95	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
96	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
97	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
98	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
99	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
100	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
101	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
102	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
103	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
104	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
105	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
106	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
107	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
108	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
109	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
110	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
111	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
112	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
113	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
114	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
115	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
116	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
117	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
118	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
119	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
120	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
121	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
122	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
123	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
124	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
125	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
126	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Eliana Michaels '14 Bettina Redway '16 Katia Dasilva '15 Elizabeth Mullarney '16 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Max Nickbarg '14	Charlotte Belling '16 William Feldman '14 Meredith Megarry '17 Katherine Gaumond '15 Sarah Smith '15 Natalya Doris '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Patrick Snow '17 Elizabeth Morrison '14 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Aaron Hull '16 Chelsea Smith '14 Connor Hendi '15 Charles Peck '15
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Tierney Driscoll '15 Emily Stuart '16 Alicia Blumenthal '15 Roy Shaw '14
Brown University	Bears	Drew Shea '14 Judge Ryan '14 Lucas Adams '15 Pearson Potts '16 Tyler Rice '14	Lydia Whiteford '15 Pearson Potts '16 Jessica O'Dell '17 Louisa Chafee '14 Drew Shea '14 Helen Lord '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Ian Liberty '14 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Kelley Merryman '14 Allison Shane '15 Nicole Deangeli '14 Nicholas Clemence '15 Catherine Shanahan '15 Thad Bench '15
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Deirdre Lambert '15 Evan Read '16 Matthew Wefer '14 Scott Houck '15	Nathaniel Greason '17 Matthew Wefer '14 Abigail Rohman '16 Avery Plough '14 Julia Mckown '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14	Sam Madden '15 Casey Gowrie '16 Kathleen Kwasniak '14 Alexander Tong '17 Paula Grasberger '14 Sara Makaretz '14
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Connor Murphy '16 Daniel Kraus '17 Madeleine Sims '16 Emma Huntress '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15 Joseph David '16	Colin Voigt '15 Julia Wiesner '14 Gabriel Smith '17 Katelyn Talley '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Alex Nugent '15 Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 William Godfrey '16	Julia Oak '14 Jane Rew '14 Diana Weston '17 Michael Deady '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Arthur Libby '17 Matthew Schoene '15 Nick Valente '16	Carly Mayhood '17 Andrew Haggerty '14 Paige Conlin '14 George Roberson '15
University of South Florida	Bulls	Christopher Stocke '15 Connor Brady '15 Fernando Monllor '16	Rebecca Campbell '16 Katie Berg '17 Kristen Walker '17 Ali Yarbrough '16
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Connor Trepton '15 George Kutschenreuter '15 Michael Lee '14	Charles Bocklet '18 Katrina Debbink '15 Elliot Busta '15 Kelsea Kierstead '15
Eckerd College	Tritons	Robert Savoie '14 Tony Collins '15 Walker Banks '14	Meredith Weber '14 Sarah Hanson '16 Jessica Resnick '16
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Colin Kennedy '17 Daniel Delbello '17	Matthew Ricci '15 Sarah Mccormack '14 Meagan Murphy '15

Conditions — 03/15/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1012.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.5 kn

avg · max 11.3 kn

Gusts to 22.7 kn

From W (259°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1012.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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