College of Charleston '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.35 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 55 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.07 (fleet 4.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 158–52 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 4 | 65–14 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 6 | 76–19 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 17–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (210 matches) the record is 158–52 against 153.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 4.32 | 3.41 | 15–7 | 18.1 | −0.91 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.16 | 3.83 | 18–3 | 18.6 | −0.33 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 4.06 | 4.64 | 20–4 | 17.9 | +0.58 | 0.8 | 22% |
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.84 | 6.84 | 12–0 | 11.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 77% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 4.14 | 3.91 | 17–8 | 18.0 | −0.23 | 0.2 | 77% |
| 2015-04-11 | SAISA Team Race | skipper | 4.08 | 3.01 | 5–1 | 5.6 | −1.06 | 0.5 | 95% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.22 | 5.01 | 21–3 | 18.7 | +0.79 | 1.2 | 17% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 4.04 | 5.09 | 16–2 | 13.6 | +1.05 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 4.00 | 4.02 | 9–5 | 8.9 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.88 | 6.88 | 8–0 | 5.4 | ≥+3.00 | 5.1 | 2% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.67 | 3.67 | 13–5 | 13.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.64 | 3.68 | 4–14 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.3 | 5.80 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 4.92 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 100% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 4.10 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.6 | 4.07 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 83% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 4.28 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.0 | 4.38 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.8 | 4.20 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| SAISA Spring Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.5 | 4.11 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.7 | 4.72 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 25 | 68% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.4 | 5.05 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 3.75 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.0 | 3.78 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.6 | 4.72 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.4 | 3.91 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 15 | 9.7 | 3.08 |
| Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.3 | 2.98 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.1 | 3.38 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.4 | 3.66 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.5 | 2.99 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 4.23 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Men's Singlehanded Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.5 | 3.62 |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.1 | 3.85 |
| ICSA/LP Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.6 | 3.45 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 7.1 | 3.60 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.3 | 4.13 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 2.0 | 3.88 |
| SAISA Men's Singlehanded Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.5 | 2.95 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 14 | 6.1 | 3.30 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
