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SAISA Fall Coed Dinghy Championship

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 24 22 46
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 29 35 64
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 52 28 80
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 40 51 91
5 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 55 85 140
6 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 96 72 168
7 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 86 96 182
8 Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 83 101 184
9 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 109 86 195
10 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 97 100 197
11 Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 139 123 262
12 Volunteers Volunteers Volunteers 126 138 264
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 3 1 1 1 3 5 1 1 1 3 3 24 Charles Rees '16
Septima Mcadams '16
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 1 2 3 4 5 1 3 2 4 1 1 29 Jason D'Agostino '17
Sarah Hanson '16
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 4 2 4 2 2 1 7 5 4 3 4 2 40 Daniel Lawless '17
Lauri Niklason '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 9 6 5 6 2 2 2 5 5 2 5 52 Andrew Baird '18 [1-12]
Darby Capellin '19 [1-6]
Tiffany Nicholson '17 [7-12]
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 6 7 3 4 5 4 6 4 3 2 5 6 55 John Roberts '17
Mateo Gomez '17
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 5 6 10 6 7 7 9 7 6 6 6 8 83 Marten Kendrick '15 [1-3, 7-12]
Conner Killham '18 [4-6]
Andres Menendez '17 [1-3, 7-12]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 9 4 7 9 3 6 3 6 8 11 9 11 86 Cassie Todd '16
William Polk '16
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 10 10 9 12 9 9 4 8 7 7 7 4 96 Max Thompson '19 [1-6]
Benjamin Ringrose '19 [7-12]
Geoffrey Calderone '18 [1-6]
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 7 8 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 12 7 97 John Sipp '18 [1-6]
Alexander Katsis '14 [7-12]
Alexander Katsis '14 [1-6]
John Sipp '18 [7-12]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 8 5 8 8 10 10 10 12 10 8 10 10 109 Mark Thompson '18
Paulina Spencer '16
Volunteers Volunteers Volunteers 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 8 9 126
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 12 12 12 10 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 12 139 Ryan Welch '16 [1-12]
Jeneshia Washington-Hughes '18 [1-6]
Clayton Shupak '18 [7-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 2 3 1 4 1 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 22 Ryan Davidson '16
Emily Stuart '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 1 5 1 3 3 28 Sean Cornell '18
Kristen Walker '17
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 3 2 2 1 4 4 2 3 4 2 4 4 35 Timothy Siemers '16 [1-9]
Andrew Schoene '18 [10-12]
Jessica Resnick '16 [1-9]
Audrey Franchett '17 [10-12]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 8 4 4 2 3 6 5 8 2 5 2 2 51 Stephan Verhulst '19 [1-6, 9-12]
Peter Steo '19 [7-8]
Anna Palmer '17 [1-6, 9-12]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 4 8 5 6 5 3 8 5 3 10 5 10 72 Kyle Magno '18
James Larkin '18
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 5 6 7 11 7 8 4 11 6 6 6 8 85 Abbie Probst '19
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 10 5 10 5 9 9 7 9 7 3 7 5 86 Kara Wheeler '18
Elizabeth Blenk '19
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 7 7 6 8 6 7 9 7 12 9 9 9 96 Kailey Savacool '16
Cameron Paul '16
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 9 9 9 7 10 12 10 4 8 8 8 6 100 Vincent Miao '18
David Eacho '18
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 11 10 11 9 8 5 6 6 9 7 12 7 101 Joshua Kim '17 [1-3, 10-12]
Stuart Wallace '18 [4-6]
Jack Sparkman '19 [7-9]
Chris Walton '16 [1-3, 7-12]
Lauren Yapp '18 [4-6]
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 6 DNS 8 10 12 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 123 Clifford Gilman '19 [1-12]
Clayton Shupak '18 [1-6]
Jeneshia Washington-Hughes '18 [7-12]
Volunteers Volunteers Volunteers 12 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 12 10 12 138
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2013 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars222111121212111111
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers111222333444
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats333444555666
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils444333222111
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons555666777888
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets666555444333
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins777888999101010
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes999101010111111121212
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack888777666555
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls111111121212111222
VolunteersVolunteers Volunteers121212111111101010999
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks101010999888777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars222111121212111111
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers111222333444
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats333444555666
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils444333222111
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons555666777888
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets666555444333
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins777888999101010
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes999101010111111121212
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack888777666555
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls111111121212111222
VolunteersVolunteers Volunteers121212111111101010999
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks101010999888777
School / Team SkipperCrew
Clemson University Clemson University John Roberts '17 Mateo Gomez '17
Tigers Abbie Probst '19
College of Charleston College of Charleston Charles Rees '16 Septima Mcadams '16
Cougars Ryan Davidson '16 Emily Stuart '16
Davidson College Davidson College Ryan Welch '16 [1-12] Jeneshia Washington-Hughes '18 [1-6]
Clayton Shupak '18 [7-12]
Wildcats Clifford Gilman '19 [1-12] Clayton Shupak '18 [1-6]
Jeneshia Washington-Hughes '18 [7-12]
Duke University Duke University John Sipp '18 [1-6]
Alexander Katsis '14 [7-12]		 Alexander Katsis '14 [1-6]
John Sipp '18 [7-12]
Blue Devils Vincent Miao '18 David Eacho '18
Eckerd College Eckerd College Jason D'Agostino '17 Sarah Hanson '16
Tritons Timothy Siemers '16 [1-9]
Andrew Schoene '18 [10-12]		 Jessica Resnick '16 [1-9]
Audrey Franchett '17 [10-12]
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Marten Kendrick '15 [1-3, 7-12]
Conner Killham '18 [4-6]		 Andres Menendez '17 [1-3, 7-12]
Yellow Jackets Joshua Kim '17 [1-3, 10-12]
Stuart Wallace '18 [4-6]
Jack Sparkman '19 [7-9]		 Chris Walton '16 [1-3, 7-12]
Lauren Yapp '18 [4-6]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Daniel Lawless '17 Lauri Niklason '16
Fins Stephan Verhulst '19 [1-6, 9-12]
Peter Steo '19 [7-8]		 Anna Palmer '17 [1-6, 9-12]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Mark Thompson '18 Paulina Spencer '16
Wolfpack Kara Wheeler '18 Elizabeth Blenk '19
University of Miami University of Miami Max Thompson '19 [1-6]
Benjamin Ringrose '19 [7-12]		 Geoffrey Calderone '18 [1-6]
Hurricanes Kyle Magno '18 James Larkin '18
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Cassie Todd '16 William Polk '16
Seahawks Kailey Savacool '16 Cameron Paul '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Andrew Baird '18 [1-12] Darby Capellin '19 [1-6]
Tiffany Nicholson '17 [7-12]
Bulls Sean Cornell '18 Kristen Walker '17

Conditions — 10/31/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Charleston: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →