University of Miami '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–16 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 0–16 against 0.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 0.76 | -2.24 | 0–16 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 6 | 18.0 | -1.79 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 1.00 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 0% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 11 | 17.9 | 0.63 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 8 | 17.1 | — |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Crew | A | 4 | 1.8 | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.1 | 0.62 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 2.01 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 1.97 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
