Mendelblatt Team Race

HostEckerd
Date02/27/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	16–0
2	University of South Florida	Bulls	14–2
3	Eckerd College	Tritons	11–5
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9–7
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	8–8
6	Jacksonville University	Fins	6–10
7	University of Michigan	Wolverines	4–12
8	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	4–12
9	University of Miami	Hurricanes	0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,105 team race matches sailed before 2016-02-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 60 of 72 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.283 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.23: an orderly event, more orderly than 83% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	12.36 school +0.36	Charles Rees / Bayley Davidson 3.84 12–0 Jake Reynolds / Annabel Carrington 4.26 12–0 Reed Baldridge / Maura Lonergan 3.77 12–0 Ryan Davidson / Maura Lonergan 3.62 4–0 Ryan Davidson / Bayley Davidson 3.71 4–0 Ryan Davidson / Annabel Carrington 3.96 4–0	98%	16–0 (100%)	+0.3
2	University of South Florida Bulls	3	9.01 school −0.16	Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.36 Sean Cornell / Rachel Yannelli 3.25 Michael Trebilcock / Darby Capellin 2.06 10–0 Andrew Baird / Isabella Uribe 2.57 4–2	67%	14–2 (88%)	+3.2
3	Eckerd College Tritons	2	9.56 school −0.17, home +0.24	Timothy Siemers / Jessica Resnick 3.19 Jason D'Agostino / Sarah Hanson 3.26 Andrew Schoene / Shaughnessy Lindquist 2.99	75%	11–5 (69%)	−1.0
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	7.96 school +0.09	Noah Barrengos Barrengos / Haley Okun 2.57 Bailey Carter / Adam Schaefer Connor Swikart / Kate Homet 2.40	48%	9–7 (56%)	+1.3
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6	7.60 school −0.11	Will Dana / Madisson Thomas Sterling Henken / Amelia Anderson 2.67 Cooper Weitz / Robert Johnson	40%	8–8 (50%)	+1.5
6	Jacksonville University Fins	4	8.02 school +0.23	Daniel Lawless / Hannah Knighton 2.82 5–5 Stephan Verhulst / Lauri Niklason 5–5 Peter Hidley / Anna Palmer 2.23 5–5 Daniel Lawless / Lauri Niklason 2.83 1–5 Stephan Verhulst / Kelsy Waack 1–5 Peter Steo / Anna Palmer 1–5	50%	6–10 (38%)	−2.0
7	University of Michigan Wolverines	8	7.05 school +0.05	Christopher Cyr / Alison Bradley 2.41 Thomas Etheridge / Meredith Wiles 1.89 Mason Wolters / Michael Gapuz 2.58	32%	4–12 (25%)	−1.1
8	Salve Regina University Seahawks	7	7.23 school −0.07	John Silvestri / Kathryn Travers 2.59 Sean Beaulieu / Shannon Killian 2.34 Sam Shannon / Jennifer Killian	35%	4–12 (25%)	−1.6
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	9	4.77 school −0.06	Kyle Magno / Geoffrey Calderone Max Thompson / Zola Johnson Benjamin Ringrose / Olivia Gassner	4%	0–16 (0%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	College of Charleston	12.36	15.36	16–0	15.7	≥+3.00	0.4	74%
2	University of South Florida	9.01	11.25	14–2	10.8	+2.24	4.4	2%
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	7.60	8.19	8–8	6.5	+0.59	0.7	26%
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	7.96	8.45	9–7	7.7	+0.49	0.4	32%
3	Eckerd College	9.56	9.05	11–5	12.0	−0.50	0.4	87%
7	University of Michigan	7.05	6.52	4–12	5.1	−0.53	0.4	86%
8	Salve Regina University	7.23	6.50	4–12	5.6	−0.73	0.8	92%
6	Jacksonville University	8.02	7.25	6–10	8.0	−0.76	1.1	94%
9	University of Miami	4.77	1.77	0–16	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.62	6.62	12–0	11.8	≥+3.00	0.3	80%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	3.84	6.84	12–0	11.7	≥+3.00	0.4	77%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.26	7.26	12–0	11.7	≥+3.00	0.4	77%
Reed Baldridge	College of Charleston	3.77	6.77	12–0	11.8	≥+3.00	0.2	85%
Michael Trebilcock	University of South Florida	2.06	5.06	10–0	8.1	≥+3.00	3.0	11%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.36	5.60	14–2	10.8	+2.24	4.4	2%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.25	5.49	14–2	10.8	+2.24	4.4	2%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	2.57	4.39	4–2	2.7	+1.83	1.7	18%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.67	3.26	8–8	6.5	+0.59	0.7	26%
Noah Barrengos Barrengos	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.57	3.06	9–7	7.7	+0.49	0.4	32%
Bailey Carter	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.66	3.15	9–7	7.7	+0.49	0.4	32%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	3.19	2.69	11–5	12.0	−0.50	0.4	87%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.26	2.75	11–5	12.0	−0.50	0.4	87%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	2.99	2.49	11–5	12.0	−0.50	0.4	87%
Christopher Cyr	University of Michigan	2.41	1.88	4–12	5.1	−0.53	0.4	86%
Thomas Etheridge	University of Michigan	1.89	1.36	4–12	5.1	−0.53	0.4	86%
Mason Wolters	University of Michigan	2.58	2.05	4–12	5.1	−0.53	0.4	86%
John Silvestri	Salve Regina University	2.59	1.85	4–12	5.6	−0.73	0.8	92%
Sean Beaulieu	Salve Regina University	2.34	1.60	4–12	5.6	−0.73	0.8	92%
Sam Shannon	Salve Regina University	1.98	1.24	4–12	5.6	−0.73	0.8	92%
Daniel Lawless	Jacksonville University	2.82	2.05	6–10	8.0	−0.76	1.1	94%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	2.48	1.71	6–10	8.0	−0.76	1.1	94%
Peter Hidley	Jacksonville University	2.23	1.46	5–5	6.4	−0.77	0.8	92%
Benjamin Ringrose	University of Miami	0.76	-2.24	0–16	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	93%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jacksonville University	50%	upset
1	3	University of Michigan	University of Miami	96%
1	4	University of California at Santa Barbara	Salve Regina University	49%	upset
1	5	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	96%
1	6	Eckerd College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	7	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	97%
1	8	University of Michigan	Salve Regina University	50%	upset
1	9	University of South Florida	University of California at Santa Barbara	89%
1	10	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	99%
1	11	Eckerd College	Jacksonville University	86%
1	12	Salve Regina University	University of Miami	94%
1	13	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Michigan	57%
1	14	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	99%
1	15	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	42%	upset
1	16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	97%
1	17	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	99%
1	18	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	84%
1	19	Salve Regina University	Jacksonville University	30%	upset
1	20	Eckerd College	University of California at Santa Barbara	89%
1	21	College of Charleston	University of Miami	100%
1	22	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
1	23	Jacksonville University	University of Michigan	73%
1	24	Eckerd College	Salve Regina University	92%
1	25	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Miami	94%
1	26	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	68%
1	27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	71%
1	28	College of Charleston	Salve Regina University	99%
1	29	University of South Florida	University of Miami	98%
1	30	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	93%
1	31	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	40%	upset
1	32	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Salve Regina University	67%
1	33	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	99%
1	34	Eckerd College	University of Miami	99%
1	35	University of California at Santa Barbara	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	42%	upset
1	36	University of South Florida	Salve Regina University	83%
2	37	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	95%
2	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jacksonville University	48%	upset
2	39	University of Michigan	University of Miami	90%
2	40	University of California at Santa Barbara	Salve Regina University	60%
2	41	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	96%
2	42	Eckerd College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
2	43	Jacksonville University	University of Miami	96%
2	44	Salve Regina University	University of Michigan	56%
2	45	University of South Florida	University of California at Santa Barbara	84%
2	46	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	99%
2	47	Jacksonville University	Eckerd College	19%	upset
2	48	Salve Regina University	University of Miami	91%
2	49	University of Michigan	University of California at Santa Barbara	33%	upset
2	50	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	98%
2	51	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	46%	upset
2	52	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	95%
2	53	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	99%
2	54	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	86%
2	55	Jacksonville University	Salve Regina University	68%
2	56	Eckerd College	University of California at Santa Barbara	85%
2	57	College of Charleston	University of Miami	100%
2	58	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	71%
2	59	Jacksonville University	University of Michigan	74%
2	60	Eckerd College	Salve Regina University	90%
2	61	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Miami	94%
2	62	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	69%
2	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	72%
2	64	College of Charleston	Salve Regina University	99%
2	65	University of South Florida	University of Miami	98%
2	66	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	92%
2	67	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	42%	upset
2	68	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Salve Regina University	66%
2	69	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	99%
2	70	Eckerd College	University of Miami	99%
2	71	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of California at Santa Barbara	54%
2	72	University of South Florida	Salve Regina University	83%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulls	Tritons	Statesmen	Gauchos	Fins	Wolverines	Seahawks	Hurricanes
College of Charleston Cougars	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	6–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	5–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulls	Tritons	Statesmen	Gauchos	Fins	Wolverines	Seahawks	Hurricanes
College of Charleston Cougars	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	7–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	5–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
2	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
3	Wolverines	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	2-5-6
4	Gauchos	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
5	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
6	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
7	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
8	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
9	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
10	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
11	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Fins	2-4-5
12	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
13	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
14	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
15	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
16	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-4-6
17	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
18	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
19	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
20	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
21	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
22	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
23	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
24	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
25	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
26	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
27	Statesmen	3-4-5	def.	Wolverines	1-2-6 DSQ
28	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
29	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
30	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
31	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
32	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
33	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
34	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
35	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
36	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
37	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
38	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Fins	2-4-5
39	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
40	Gauchos	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
41	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
42	Tritons	2-4-5	def.	Statesmen	1-3-6 DSQ
43	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
44	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Wolverines	1-4-6
45	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
46	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
47	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
48	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
49	Wolverines	1-3-6	def.	Gauchos	2-4-5
50	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
51	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
52	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
53	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
54	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
55	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
56	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
57	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
58	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
59	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
60	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
61	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
62	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
63	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
64	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
65	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
66	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
67	Gauchos	3-4-5	def.	Fins	1-2-6 DSQ
68	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
69	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
70	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
71	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
72	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Reed Baldridge '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Bayley Davidson '17 Annabel Carrington '19 Maura Lonergan '19
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Fernando Monllor '16 Michael Trebilcock '17 Sean Cornell '18	Isabella Uribe '18 Rebecca Campbell '16 Darby Capellin '19 Rachel Yannelli '19
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Timothy Siemers '16	Shaughnessy Lindquist '16 Sarah Hanson '16 Jessica Resnick '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Bailey Carter '19 Connor Swikart '18 Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	Adam Schaefer '17 Kate Homet '19 Haley Okun '18
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Cooper Weitz '19 Sterling Henken '18 Will Dana '19	Robert Johnson '19 Amelia Anderson '18 Madisson Thomas '17
Jacksonville University	Fins	Daniel Lawless '17 Peter Hidley '17 Peter Steo '19 Stephan Verhulst '19	Lauri Niklason '16 Hannah Knighton '17 Anna Palmer '17 Kelsy Waack '18
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Christopher Cyr '16 Mason Wolters '18 Thomas Etheridge '16	Alison Bradley '16 Michael Gapuz '18 Meredith Wiles '17
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	John Silvestri '16 Sam Shannon '19 Sean Beaulieu '18	Kathryn Travers '16 Jennifer Killian '19 Shannon Killian '16
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Benjamin Ringrose '19 Kyle Magno '18 Max Thompson '19	Olivia Gassner '18 Geoffrey Calderone '18 Zola Johnson '18

Conditions — 02/27/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1024.8 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 8.2 kn

Gusts to 16.7 kn

From N (356°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover13% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1024.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Eckerd — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Eckerd in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Eckerd by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (55 labelled fleet-race days at Eckerd).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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