Jacksonville University '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 14.59 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.69 (fleet 2.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–13 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 8–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 13–13 against 12.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-27 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 1.46 | 5–5 | 6.4 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 1.56 | 2.46 | 8–8 | 6.2 | +0.90 | 1.2 | 17% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| 2017 SailPack Oriental Intercollegiate | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 2.48 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 1.64 |
| Old South Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.0 | 2.33 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 2.26 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 2.57 |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 1.40 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 2.74 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 13.8 | 1.70 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 1.88 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 2.44 |
| SAISA Spring Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.3 | 1.74 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 1.54 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 2.10 |
| Old South Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.0 | 1.98 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Crew | A | 9 | 15.1 | — |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 2.48 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.3 | 1.04 |
| SAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.4 | 1.39 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.1 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 1.74 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.4 | -0.48 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 1.18 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | 1.21 |
| Old South Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.6 | 1.61 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Crew | B | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 0.46 |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.7 | 1.94 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 0.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
