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SAISA South Points #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 9 7 16
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 16 17 33
3 New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 20 17 37
4 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 15 27 42
5 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 22 23 45
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 35 14 49
7 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 28 38 66
8 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 35 37 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 1 2 2 3 1 9 Seth Barrows '15
Morgan Engle '15
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 2 1 3 5 4 15 Ian Nora '14 [1-2]
Blake Pierce '14 [3-5]
Blake Pierce '14 [1-4]
Alexis Ryan '16 [5]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 4 8 1 1 2 16 Peter Hidley '17
Hannah Knighton '17
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 3 4 6 4 3 20 Sophia Schultz '17
Julia Pope '17
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 6 3 5 2 6 22 Jacqueline Taylor '15
William Layne '16
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 5 6 4 8 5 28 Bryce Scarfone '15
Abigail Beauchamp '14
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 7 7 8 6 7 35 Lauren Youngerman '16
Tekla Mayotte '16
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 8 5 7 7 8 35 Angela Skane '16
Samyak Shah '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 2 1 1 1 7 Erik Brydges '14
Audrey Franchett '17
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 3 4 2 4 14 Sara Simon '15
Sarah Smith '16
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 3 4 3 4 3 17 Cornell Lee '16
Orion Morton '17
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 4 1 2 5 5 17 Mara Strobel-Lanka '17
Victoria Caba '17
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 5 5 5 6 2 23 Ryan Clarke '16
Trevor Johnson '16
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 6 6 6 3 6 27 Mitchell Wilkins '14 [1-2]
Maria Ayala '18 [3-5]
Maria Ayala '18 [1-2]
Mitchell Wilkins '14 [3-5]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 8 7 8 7 7 37 Thomas Monson '14
Bryan Reynoso '14
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 7 8 7 8 8 38 Ben Kleimen '17
Sunder Praro '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons11335
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles22446
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators66882
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins33557
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes77113
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College44668
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars55771
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls88224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons22446
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles33557
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators77113
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins44668
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes88224
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College55771
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars66882
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls11335

Conditions — 03/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1021.9 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 4.5 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1021.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Rollins: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →