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SAISA South Points #5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 13 6 19
2 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 16 6 22
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 16 13 29
4 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 9 21 30
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 10 28 38
6 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 2 23 24 47
7 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 32 19 51
8 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 28 27 55
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 5 1 2 9 Paul Perry '15
Mary Guidi '15
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 4 1 4 1 10 Laura Hernandez '15
Nick Gangemi '16
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 3 4 2 4 13 Timothy Siemers '16
Amanda Smith '15
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 2 6 3 5 16 Daniel Lawless '17
Hannah Knighton '17
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 5 3 5 3 16 William Layne '16
Branden Nathe '14
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 2 DNF 2 6 6 23 Mara Strobel-Lanka '17 [1-2]
Benjamin Tino '16 [3-4]
Karolina Dzieniszewski '15 [1-2]
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 6 7 8 7 28 Maria Ayala '18 [1-2]
Bernardo Pineda '16 [3-4]
Chance Sweat '16 [1-2]
Alexis Ryan '16 [3-4]
University of Florida University of Florida Gators DNF 8 7 8 32 Nicholas Algozzine '15 [1-4]
Sara Wedemeyer '17 [1-2]
Sara Andersen '15 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 1 2 2 6 Joel Hurley '14
Trevor Johnson '16
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 2 1 1 6 Walker Banks '14 [1-4]
Aliki Fornier '17 [1-3]
Sophie Abadia '15 [4]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 4 3 3 3 13 Peter Hidley '17
Victoria Caba '17
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 6 5 4 4 19 Thomas Monson '14
Bryan Reynoso '14
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 5 4 7 5 21 Sarah Smith '16
Lizette Arnold '17
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 2 3 6 8 7 24 Matthew Martin '16
Alison Devivero '15
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 8 8 5 6 27 Cameron Lamir '15 [1-4]
Emily Pasco-Anderson '17 [1-2]
Zane Driggers '18 [3-4]
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 7 7 6 8 28 Benjamin Kaminsky '17
Rose Killian '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1133
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles2244
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators6688
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins 13355
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins 24466
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes7711
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars5577
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls8822

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons2244
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles3355
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators7711
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins 14466
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins 25577
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes8822
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars6688
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1133

Conditions — 03/29/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.5 kn
Gusts to 26.2 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine3.5 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1013.0 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jacksonville: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →