Eckerd College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.71 (fleet 2.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–77 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 14–34 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 10–43 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 15–41 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | SAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.51 | -0.49 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.65 | 3.04 | 3–12 | 2.4 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 2.80 | 11–19 | 10.3 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 2013-04-13 | SAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.48 | 2.90 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.5 | 3.01 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 37% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 6 | 13.8 | 1.26 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA/MAISA | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.5 | 2.62 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 3.51 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 14.2 | 2.13 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 23% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 2.40 |
| SAISA/MAISA | Skipper | A | 20 | 4.2 | 2.54 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 16.0 | 1.85 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 2.15 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.2 | 2.51 |
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 1.10 |
| SAISA Fall Coed Championships | Crew | A | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 17.4 | 1.00 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| ICSA Coed Dinghy Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 1.14 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall | Skipper | B | 18 | 14.2 | 1.25 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 0.88 |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.2 | 1.74 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
