| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,412 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 9 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.336 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 11.71 school +0.23 | Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.13 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.84 Nick Johnstone / Septima Mcadams 3.50 | 94% | 5–1 (83%) | −0.7 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 2 | 9.53 school −0.17 | Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.77 Connor Brady / Colleen Hartman 2.55 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.27 | 49% | 4–2 (67%) | +1.1 |
| 3 | Eckerd College Tritons | 3 | 7.52 school −0.40 | Tony Collins / Sarah Hanson 2.86 Walker Banks / Jessica Resnick 2.51 0–3 Robert Savoie / William Mckenzie 2.38 0–3 Jason D'Agostino / William Mckenzie 0–3 Robert Savoie / Jessica Resnick 2.75 0–3 | 7% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of South Florida | 9.53 | 11.16 | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.63 | 1.3 | 19% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 11.71 | 10.43 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.28 | 0.7 | 96% |
| 3 | Eckerd College | 7.52 | 4.52 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Stocke | University of South Florida | 3.77 | 5.39 | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.63 | 1.3 | 19% |
| Fernando Monllor | University of South Florida | 3.27 | 4.90 | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.63 | 1.3 | 19% |
| Jake Reynolds | College of Charleston | 4.13 | 2.85 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.28 | 0.7 | 96% |
| Ryan Davidson | College of Charleston | 3.84 | 2.56 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.28 | 0.7 | 96% |
| Nick Johnstone | College of Charleston | 3.50 | 2.23 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.28 | 0.7 | 96% |
| Tony Collins | Eckerd College | 2.86 | -0.14 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Walker Banks | Eckerd College | 2.51 | -0.49 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Robert Savoie | Eckerd College | 2.38 | -0.62 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Jason D'Agostino | Eckerd College | 2.27 | -0.73 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Jake Reynolds '16 Nick Johnstone '15 Ryan Davidson '16 |
Alicia Blumenthal '15 Septima Mcadams '16 Emily Stuart '16 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Christopher Stocke '15 Connor Brady '15 Fernando Monllor '16 |
Ali Yarbrough '16 Colleen Hartman '13 Rebecca Campbell '16 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Jason D'Agostino '17 Robert Savoie '14 Tony Collins '15 Walker Banks '14 |
William Mckenzie '17 Jessica Resnick '16 Sarah Hanson '16 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
