University of South Florida '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 2.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 82–64 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 58–44 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 10–9 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 2 | 14–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (114 matches) the record is 65–49 against 73.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 18 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.84 | 3.25 | 6–9 | 5.3 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2014-04-05 | SAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.55 | 4.18 | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.63 | 1.3 | 19% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 1.67 | 10–8 | 14.4 | −1.28 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 1.00 | 4–11 | 8.7 | −2.16 | 7.2 | >99% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 2.54 | 5–13 | 6.8 | −0.61 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 4.22 | 29–1 | 26.4 | +1.55 | 2.4 | 9% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 2.13 | 7–5 | 9.0 | −0.95 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.16 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 97% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Connor Brady |  Roger Williams University |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
