Frank Mendelblatt Team Race

HostSouth Florida
Date02/22/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of South Florida	Bulls 1	29–1
2	University of South Florida	Bulls 3	21–9
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–12
4	Eckerd College	Tritons	11–19
4	University of South Florida	Bulls 2	11–19
6	University of South Florida	Bulls 4	0–30

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,886 team race matches sailed before 2014-02-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 78 of 90 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.302 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.19: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of South Florida Bulls 1	1	10.66 home +0.26	Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.95 Connor Brady / Katie Berg 2.67 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.41	88%	29–1 (97%)	+2.6
2	University of South Florida Bulls 3	3	8.90 home +0.26	Benjamin Mohney / Nicole Santana 2.90 Aj Degen / Kristen Walker 2.27 Paul Perry / Mary Guidi	62%	21–9 (70%)	+2.3
3	Stanford University Cardinal	2	9.68 school +0.22	Molly Mckinney / Cally Tullo 2.97 16–8 Maeve White / Mckenzie Wilson 17–7 Sarah Mace / Samantha Steele 3.38 14–10 Axel Sly / Nicolette Obel 7–11	77%	18–12 (60%)	−5.1
4	Eckerd College Tritons	5	7.29 school −0.42	Walker Banks / Jessica Resnick 2.60 Robert Savoie / Meredith Weber 2.22 Timothy Siemers / Shaughnessy Lindquist	34%	11–19 (37%)	+0.7
4	University of South Florida Bulls 2	4	7.36 home +0.26	Dominique Wright / Darcy Jensen Alison Knoles / Kayla Burrows Charlie Bess / Lizette Arnold	35%	11–19 (37%)	+0.4
6	University of South Florida Bulls 4	6	4.77 home +0.26	Dean Nixon / Lauren Youngerman Richard Romer / Sara Simon Tekla Mayotte / Thomas Hamby	3%	0–30 (0%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	University of South Florida Bulls 1	10.66	12.21	29–1	26.4	+1.55	2.4	9%
2	University of South Florida Bulls 3	8.90	9.51	21–9	18.7	+0.61	1.0	18%
4	Eckerd College Tritons	7.29	7.49	11–19	10.3	+0.20	0.1	44%
4	University of South Florida Bulls 2	7.36	7.49	11–19	10.6	+0.12	0.0	50%
3	Stanford University Cardinal	9.68	8.52	18–12	23.1	−1.16	4.4	>99%
6	University of South Florida Bulls 4	4.77	1.77	0–30	1.0	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.95	5.50	29–1	26.4	+1.55	2.4	9%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.41	4.96	29–1	26.4	+1.55	2.4	9%
Benjamin Mohney	University of South Florida	2.90	3.50	21–9	18.7	+0.61	1.0	18%
Aj Degen	University of South Florida	2.27	2.88	21–9	18.7	+0.61	1.0	18%
Paul Perry	University of South Florida	2.56	3.17	21–9	18.7	+0.61	1.0	18%
Walker Banks	Eckerd College	2.60	2.80	11–19	10.3	+0.20	0.1	44%
Robert Savoie	Eckerd College	2.22	2.42	11–19	10.3	+0.20	0.1	44%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	2.28	2.48	11–19	10.3	+0.20	0.1	44%
Dominique Wright	University of South Florida	2.54	2.66	11–19	10.6	+0.12	0.0	50%
Alison Knoles	University of South Florida	1.99	2.11	11–19	10.6	+0.12	0.0	50%
Charlie Bess	University of South Florida	1.65	1.77	11–19	10.6	+0.12	0.0	50%
Molly Mckinney	Stanford University	2.97	1.93	16–8	19.0	−1.04	2.3	98%
Sarah Mace	Stanford University	3.38	2.32	14–10	17.7	−1.05	2.8	99%
Maeve White	Stanford University	2.43	1.27	17–7	20.8	−1.17	3.4	99%
Axel Sly	Stanford University	3.04	1.67	7–11	11.7	−1.37	4.7	>99%
Dean Nixon	University of South Florida	1.13	-1.87	0–30	1.0	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%
Tekla Mayotte	University of South Florida	1.09	-1.91	0–30	1.0	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University Cardinal	Eckerd College Tritons	88%
1	2	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 2	98%
1	3	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 4	98%
1	4	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Eckerd College Tritons	81%
1	5	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Stanford University Cardinal	65%
1	6	University of South Florida Bulls 2	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
1	7	University of South Florida Bulls 2	Eckerd College Tritons	48%	upset
1	8	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Stanford University Cardinal	29%	upset
1	9	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 4	100%
1	10	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Eckerd College Tritons	97%
1	11	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 2	82%
1	12	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 4	99%
1	13	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 2	91%
1	14	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 3	87%
1	15	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
2	16	Stanford University Cardinal	Eckerd College Tritons	89%
2	17	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 2	97%
2	18	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 4	98%
2	19	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Eckerd College Tritons	83%
2	20	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Stanford University Cardinal	63%
2	21	University of South Florida Bulls 2	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
2	22	University of South Florida Bulls 2	Eckerd College Tritons	51%
2	23	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Stanford University Cardinal	31%	upset
2	24	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 4	100%
2	25	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Eckerd College Tritons	97%
2	26	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 2	82%
2	27	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 4	99%
2	28	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 2	90%
2	29	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 3	86%
2	30	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
3	31	Eckerd College Tritons	Stanford University Cardinal	10%	upset
3	32	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 2	96%
3	33	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 4	98%
3	34	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Eckerd College Tritons	83%
3	35	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Stanford University Cardinal	62%
3	36	University of South Florida Bulls 2	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
3	37	University of South Florida Bulls 2	Eckerd College Tritons	52%
3	38	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Stanford University Cardinal	32%	upset
3	39	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 4	100%
3	40	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Eckerd College Tritons	97%
3	41	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 2	82%
3	42	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 4	99%
3	43	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 2	90%
3	44	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 3	85%
3	45	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 4	92%
4	46	Stanford University Cardinal	Eckerd College Tritons	90%
4	47	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 2	96%
4	48	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 4	98%
4	49	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 3	16%	upset
4	50	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 1	39%	upset
4	51	University of South Florida Bulls 2	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
4	52	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 2	47%	upset
4	53	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Stanford University Cardinal	33%	upset
4	54	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 4	100%
4	55	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Eckerd College Tritons	97%
4	56	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 2	82%
4	57	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 4	99%
4	58	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 2	90%
4	59	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 3	84%
4	60	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 4	92%
5	61	Stanford University Cardinal	Eckerd College Tritons	90%
5	62	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 2	96%
5	63	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 4	98%
5	64	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Eckerd College Tritons	84%
5	65	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Stanford University Cardinal	61%
5	66	University of South Florida Bulls 2	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
5	67	University of South Florida Bulls 2	Eckerd College Tritons	53%
5	68	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 3	67%
5	69	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 4	100%
5	70	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Eckerd College Tritons	96%
5	71	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 2	82%
5	72	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 4	99%
5	73	University of South Florida Bulls 2	Stanford University Cardinal	11%	upset
5	74	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 3	83%
5	75	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 4	92%
6	76	Eckerd College Tritons	Stanford University Cardinal	10%	upset
6	77	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 2	96%
6	78	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 4	98%
6	79	University of South Florida Bulls 3	Eckerd College Tritons	84%
6	80	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Stanford University Cardinal	60%
6	81	University of South Florida Bulls 2	University of South Florida Bulls 4	93%
6	82	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 2	46%	upset
6	83	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 3	66%
6	84	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 4	100%
6	85	University of South Florida Bulls 1	Eckerd College Tritons	96%
6	86	University of South Florida Bulls 3	University of South Florida Bulls 2	82%
6	87	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 4	99%
6	88	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls 2	89%
6	89	University of South Florida Bulls 1	University of South Florida Bulls 3	83%
6	90	Eckerd College Tritons	University of South Florida Bulls 4	92%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	3	Cardinal	Tritons	2	4
University of South Florida Bulls 1	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 3	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–4	W	W	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls 2	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 4	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	1	3	Cardinal	Tritons	2	4
University of South Florida Bulls 1	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 3	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–4	W	W	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls 2	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 4	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	1	3	Cardinal	Tritons	2	4
University of South Florida Bulls 1	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 3	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
Stanford University Cardinal	2–3	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–3	W	W	W	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls 2	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 4	11–9	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	1	3	Cardinal	Tritons	2	4
University of South Florida Bulls 1	8–12	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 3	8–12	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–2	W	W	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls 2	8–12	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 4	8–12	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	1	3	Cardinal	Tritons	2	4
University of South Florida Bulls 1	11–9	✕	✕	W	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 3	11–9	✕	✕	W	L	✕	✕
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	L	L	✕	W	L	L
Eckerd College Tritons	1–4	W	W	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls 2	11–9	✕	✕	W	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 4	11–9	✕	✕	W	L	✕	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	1	3	Cardinal	Tritons	2	4
University of South Florida Bulls 1	9–11	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 3	9–11	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–2	W	W	W	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls 2	9–11	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕
University of South Florida Bulls 4	9–11	✕	✕	L	L	✕	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
2	Bulls 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulls 2	3-5-6
3	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
4	Bulls 3	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
5	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
6	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
7	Bulls 2	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
8	Bulls 3	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
9	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
10	Bulls 1	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
11	Bulls 3	1-2-4	def.	Bulls 2	3-5-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
14	Bulls 1	2-3-4	def.	Bulls 3	1-5-6
15	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
16	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
17	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 2	4-5-6
18	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
19	Bulls 3	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
20	Bulls 1	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
21	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
22	Bulls 2	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
23	Bulls 3	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
24	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
25	Bulls 1	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
26	Bulls 3	1-2-4	def.	Bulls 2	3-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
28	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
29	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 3	3-4-6
30	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
31	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
32	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
33	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
34	Bulls 3	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
35	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
36	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
37	Bulls 2	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
38	Bulls 3	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
39	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
40	Bulls 1	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
41	Bulls 3	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 2	4-5-6
44	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 3	3-4-6
45	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
46	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
47	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 2	4-5-6
48	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
49	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Bulls 3	2-5-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulls 1	3-4-5
51	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
52	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
53	Bulls 3	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
54	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
55	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
56	Bulls 3	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
58	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-5
59	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 3	4-5-6
60	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
61	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
62	Bulls 1	1-2-6	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-5
63	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
64	Bulls 3	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
65	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
66	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
67	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 3	4-5-6
69	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
70	Bulls 1	2-3-5	def.	Tritons	1-4-6
71	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 2	4-5-6
72	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
73	Bulls 2	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
74	Bulls 1	2-3-4	def.	Bulls 3	1-5-6
75	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
76	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
77	Bulls 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulls 2	3-5-6
78	Bulls 3	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
79	Bulls 3	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
80	Bulls 1	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
81	Bulls 2	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
82	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-5
83	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bulls 3	1-4-6
84	Bulls 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
85	Bulls 1	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
86	Bulls 3	1-2-5	def.	Bulls 2	3-4-6
87	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6
88	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulls 2	3-5-6
89	Bulls 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulls 3	3-5-6
90	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls 4	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of South Florida	Bulls 1	Christopher Stocke '15 Connor Brady '15 Fernando Monllor '16	Ali Yarbrough '16 Katie Berg '17 Rebecca Campbell '16
University of South Florida	Bulls 3	Aj Degen '16 Benjamin Mohney '15 Paul Perry '15	Kristen Walker '17 Nicole Santana '16 Mary Guidi '15
Stanford University	Cardinal	Axel Sly '16 Maeve White '17 Molly Mckinney '14 Sarah Mace '14	Nicolette Obel '17 Mckenzie Wilson '14 Cally Tullo '17 Samantha Steele '16
Eckerd College	Tritons	Robert Savoie '14 Timothy Siemers '16 Walker Banks '14	Meredith Weber '14 Shaughnessy Lindquist '16 Jessica Resnick '16
University of South Florida	Bulls 2	Alison Knoles '17 Charlie Bess '17 Dominique Wright '15	Kayla Burrows '17 Lizette Arnold '17 Darcy Jensen '16
University of South Florida	Bulls 4	Dean Nixon '16 Richard Romer '15 Tekla Mayotte '16	Lauren Youngerman '16 Sara Simon '15 Thomas Hamby '15

Conditions — 02/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

72°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 68°F

Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.1 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 17.5 kn

From W (260°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1018.3 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

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