University of South Florida '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.37 (fleet 1.89) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–30 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 0–30 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 0–30 against 1.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.13 | -1.87 | 0–30 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | 1.24 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 1.14 |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 3.14 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 0.34 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.7 | 2.63 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 0.81 |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | 1.40 |
| Old South Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.4 | 1.79 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.1 | 0.62 |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | -0.49 |
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 0.90 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
