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SAISA South Points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 8 4 12
2 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 11 10 21
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 13 15 28
4 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 16 17 33
5 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 22 18 40
6 New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 24 23 47
7 Rollins College Rollins College Tars 21 27 48
8 Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic 29 34 63
9 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 37 32 69
10 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 39 40 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 2 1 1 4 8 Aj Degen '16
Cory Santero '16
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 4 2 4 1 11 Seth Barrows '15
Morgan Engle '15
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 1 3 6 3 13 Ian Ikeda '17
Hannah Knighton '17
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 3 8 3 2 16 Charlie Bess '17
Lizette Arnold '17
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 5 4 7 5 21 Ian Nora '14
Ashley Siana '14
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 6 7 2 7 22 Dean Nixon '16
Devin Hansen '16
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 7 6 5 6 24 Sophia Schultz '17
Julia Pope '17
Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic 8 5 8 8 29 Joseph Bello '17
No Show
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 9 10 9 9 37 Angela Skane '16
Amy Rumbaugh '15
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 10 9 10 10 39 Dean Hawn '14 [1]
Katherine Schmicker '15 [2-4]
Katherine Schmicker '15 [1]
Dean Hawn '14 [2-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 1 1 1 1 1 4 Paul Perry '15
Mary Guidi '15
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 2 3 2 3 10 Erik Brydges '14
Audrey Franchett '17
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 4 2 4 5 15 Mara Strobel-Lanka '17
Victoria Caba '17
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 3 4 6 4 17 Sara Simon '15
Tekla Mayotte '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 3 5 6 5 2 18 Richard Romer '15
Amanda Milford '15
New College of Florida New College of Florida New College 6 7 3 7 23 Cornell Lee '16
Francisco Perez '17
Rollins College Rollins College Tars 7 5 9 6 27 Mitchell Wilkins '14
Chance Sweat '16
University of Florida University of Florida Gators 9 8 7 8 32 Thomas Monson '14 [1-4]
David Shim '17 [1-2]
Arik Maurice '17 [3-4]
Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic 8 9 8 9 34 James Kalenti '17
No Show
University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 10 10 10 10 40 Benjamin Kaminsky '17
Rose Killian '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (51 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons1122
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators7788
Florida Atlantic UniversityFlorida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic3344
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins4433
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes2211
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College5566
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars6655
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 18877
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 2991010
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 3101099

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons11111212
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators17171818
Florida Atlantic UniversityFlorida Atlantic University Florida Atlantic13131414
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins14141313
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes12121111
New College of FloridaNew College of Florida New College15151616
Rollins CollegeRollins College Tars16161515
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 118181717
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 219192020
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls 320201919

Conditions — 03/15/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.3 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From SE (133°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1019.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at South Florida: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.54 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →