University of South Florida '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 84.22 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.087 rating points from 191 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–19 (37%) as crew 5–13 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 11–19 | 5–13 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 16–32 against 17.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | crew | 3.15 | 2.54 | 5–13 | 6.8 | −0.61 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.65 | 1.77 | 11–19 | 10.6 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Reserve | A | 7 | 8.6 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Crew | A, B | 18 | 8.4 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| SAISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 2.3 | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 2.52 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 6.7 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.7 | 2.42 |
| Harry Anderson | Crew | B | 15 | 11.3 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 2.2 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 8.4 | — |
| Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 18 | 2.1 | 3.37 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 9.3 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 12.1 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.2 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 13.5 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Womens Fall 2014 Doublehanded Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| SAISA Open | Crew | B | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 9.3 | — |
| Kathryn Hammond Memorial | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 3.15 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 11 | 9.8 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 8.3 | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A, B | 9 | 10.1 | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 13.8 | — |
| SAISA Women's Championships Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 3.5 | — |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 2.22 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 11.5 | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.2 | 1.82 |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 37% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 2.07 |
| SAISA South 2nd Annual USF Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 1.17 |
| SAISA/MAISA | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 0.99 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 1.13 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.6 | 1.11 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
