Bob Bavier Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/01/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	17–4
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	15–6
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	15–6
4	College of Charleston	Cougars 1	12–9
5	Boston College	Eagles	10–8
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–9
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–10
8	University of South Florida	Bulls	5–13
9	College of Charleston	Cougars 2	4–14
10	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,991 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 73 of 96 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.21: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	13.03	Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.71 Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 4.14	79%	17–4 (81%)	+0.4
2	Stanford University Cardinal	3	12.18	Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.38 Hans Henken / Mary Vangelos 3.50 Antoine Screve / Helena Scutt 3.97	63%	15–6 (71%)	+1.8
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	11.99 school −0.06	Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.15 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.62 Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.91	56%	15–6 (71%)	+3.2
4	College of Charleston Cougars 1	7	11.60 school −0.08	Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.77 Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.21 Nick Johnstone / Septima Mcadams 3.55	47%	12–9 (57%)	+2.1
5	Boston College Eagles	2	12.31	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 3.81 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.22 Raul Rios / Shelby Hamilton 4.17	66%	10–8 (56%)	−1.9
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	11.95 school +0.46	Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 4.17 Joshua Greenslade / Nicole Deangeli 4.03 6–4 John Wallace / Nicole Deangeli 3.34 3–5 Ian Liberty / Allison Shane 3.38 5–3 John Wallace / Allison Shane 3.38 3–3 Joshua Greenslade / Allison Shane 4.05 1–3	60%	9–9 (50%)	−1.8
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	11.68 school +0.17	Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 4.01 Mary Hall / Chelsea Smith 3.75 Michael Popp / Elizabeth Morrison 3.67	52%	8–10 (44%)	−1.4
8	University of South Florida Bulls	8	11.04 school +0.20	Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 4.10 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.55 Connor Brady / Charlie Bess 3.15	38%	5–13 (28%)	−1.8
9	College of Charleston Cougars 2	9	10.21 school −0.08	Reed Baldridge / Katherine Baker Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll Jack Jorgensen / Michaela Reynolds 1–7 Alexander Whipple / Morgan Buckley 2–4 Roy Shaw / Morgan Buckley 1–3	22%	4–14 (22%)	+0.1
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	9.24 school −0.24	Joseph David / Kaylie Gallagher 2.81 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.89 Nathan Fields / Katelyn Talley 2.72 1–15 Gabriel Smith / Katelyn Talley 0–2	9%	1–17 (6%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	11.99	12.78	15–6	11.8	+0.78	1.8	10%
4	College of Charleston Cougars 1	11.60	12.10	12–9	9.9	+0.50	0.8	21%
2	Stanford University Cardinal	12.18	12.64	15–6	13.2	+0.47	0.6	26%
1	Yale University Bulldogs	13.03	13.15	17–4	16.6	+0.12	0.0	55%
9	College of Charleston Cougars 2	10.21	10.24	4–14	3.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11.68	11.30	8–10	9.4	−0.38	0.4	84%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	11.95	11.45	9–9	10.8	−0.50	0.6	89%
5	Boston College Eagles	12.31	11.77	10–8	11.9	−0.54	0.8	90%
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	9.24	8.65	1–17	1.7	−0.59	0.3	84%
8	University of South Florida Bulls	11.04	10.43	5–13	6.8	−0.61	0.8	91%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.15	3.93	15–6	11.8	+0.78	1.8	10%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.62	4.40	15–6	11.8	+0.78	1.8	10%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.91	5.69	15–6	11.8	+0.78	1.8	10%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.77	4.27	12–9	9.9	+0.50	0.8	21%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.21	4.71	12–9	9.9	+0.50	0.8	21%
Nick Johnstone	College of Charleston	3.55	4.05	12–9	9.9	+0.50	0.8	21%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.38	4.84	15–6	13.2	+0.47	0.6	26%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.50	3.97	15–6	13.2	+0.47	0.6	26%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	3.97	4.44	15–6	13.2	+0.47	0.6	26%
Roy Shaw	College of Charleston	2.79	2.99	1–3	0.9	+0.19	0.0	63%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	3.86	3.98	17–4	16.6	+0.12	0.0	55%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.71	4.82	17–4	16.6	+0.12	0.0	55%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.14	4.25	17–4	16.6	+0.12	0.0	55%
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.38	3.47	5–3	4.9	+0.08	0.0	63%
Reed Baldridge	College of Charleston	3.20	3.24	4–14	3.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	3.64	3.68	4–14	3.9	+0.04	0.0	59%
Alexander Whipple	College of Charleston	3.17	3.18	2–4	2.0	+0.01	0.0	72%
Jack Jorgensen	College of Charleston	2.85	2.78	1–7	1.1	−0.06	0.0	68%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	4.01	3.63	8–10	9.4	−0.38	0.4	84%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.75	3.36	8–10	9.4	−0.38	0.4	84%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.67	3.29	8–10	9.4	−0.38	0.4	84%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.03	3.60	7–7	8.3	−0.42	0.4	85%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.17	3.67	9–9	10.8	−0.50	0.6	89%
Nathan Fields	Old Dominion University	2.72	2.22	1–15	1.6	−0.50	0.2	82%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.81	3.27	10–8	11.9	−0.54	0.8	90%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.22	3.68	10–8	11.9	−0.54	0.8	90%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.17	3.64	10–8	11.9	−0.54	0.8	90%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	2.81	2.21	1–17	1.7	−0.59	0.3	84%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.89	3.30	1–17	1.7	−0.59	0.3	84%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	4.10	3.49	5–13	6.8	−0.61	0.8	91%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.55	2.94	5–13	6.8	−0.61	0.8	91%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.34	2.43	6–8	8.4	−0.91	1.6	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	Old Dominion University Monarchs	92%
1	2	Georgetown University Hoyas	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	40%	upset
1	3	Stanford University Cardinal	College of Charleston Cougars 2	91%
1	4	College of Charleston Cougars 1	University of South Florida Bulls	61%
1	5	Boston College Eagles	Yale University Bulldogs	38%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University Hoyas	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	53%
1	7	College of Charleston Cougars 2	Old Dominion University Monarchs	70%
1	8	College of Charleston Cougars 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	37%	upset
1	9	Yale University Bulldogs	Stanford University Cardinal	70%
1	10	University of South Florida Bulls	Boston College Eagles	22%	upset
1	11	Georgetown University Hoyas	College of Charleston Cougars 2	83%
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	College of Charleston Cougars 1	53%
1	13	Yale University Bulldogs	Old Dominion University Monarchs	97%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	University of South Florida Bulls	74%
1	15	Boston College Eagles	Stanford University Cardinal	56%
1	16	College of Charleston Cougars 1	College of Charleston Cougars 2	85%
1	17	Yale University Bulldogs	Georgetown University Hoyas	75%
1	18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	University of South Florida Bulls	65%
1	19	Stanford University Cardinal	Old Dominion University Monarchs	94%
1	20	Boston College Eagles	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	55%
1	21	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Yale University Bulldogs	20%	upset
1	22	University of South Florida Bulls	College of Charleston Cougars 2	76%
1	23	Stanford University Cardinal	Georgetown University Hoyas	55%
1	24	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	60%
1	25	Boston College Eagles	Old Dominion University Monarchs	95%
1	26	Yale University Bulldogs	University of South Florida Bulls	88%
1	27	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Stanford University Cardinal	36%	upset
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	College of Charleston Cougars 2	89%
1	29	Georgetown University Hoyas	Old Dominion University Monarchs	93%
1	30	Boston College Eagles	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	65%
1	31	Stanford University Cardinal	University of South Florida Bulls	75%
1	32	Yale University Bulldogs	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	71%
1	33	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs	91%
1	34	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	College of Charleston Cougars 2	83%
1	35	Georgetown University Hoyas	Boston College Eagles	41%	upset
1	36	Stanford University Cardinal	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	68%
1	37	University of South Florida Bulls	Old Dominion University Monarchs	85%
1	38	Yale University Bulldogs	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	79%
1	39	Georgetown University Hoyas	College of Charleston Cougars 1	60%
1	40	Boston College Eagles	College of Charleston Cougars 2	90%
1	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Old Dominion University Monarchs	93%
1	42	Stanford University Cardinal	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	62%
1	43	Georgetown University Hoyas	University of South Florida Bulls	72%
1	44	Yale University Bulldogs	College of Charleston Cougars 2	93%
1	45	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Boston College Eagles	33%	upset
2	46	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	Old Dominion University Monarchs	92%
2	47	Georgetown University Hoyas	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	48%	upset
2	48	Stanford University Cardinal	College of Charleston Cougars 2	88%
2	49	College of Charleston Cougars 1	University of South Florida Bulls	63%
2	50	Yale University Bulldogs	Boston College Eagles	67%
2	51	Georgetown University Hoyas	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	58%
2	52	Old Dominion University Monarchs	College of Charleston Cougars 2	22%	upset
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	College of Charleston Cougars 1	62%
2	54	Stanford University Cardinal	Yale University Bulldogs	30%	upset
2	55	Boston College Eagles	University of South Florida Bulls	78%
2	56	College of Charleston Cougars 2	Georgetown University Hoyas	19%	upset
2	57	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	College of Charleston Cougars 1	52%
2	58	Yale University Bulldogs	Old Dominion University Monarchs	98%
2	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	University of South Florida Bulls	74%
2	60	Stanford University Cardinal	Boston College Eagles	47%	upset
2	61	College of Charleston Cougars 1	College of Charleston Cougars 2	82%
2	62	Yale University Bulldogs	Georgetown University Hoyas	74%
2	63	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	University of South Florida Bulls	66%
2	64	Stanford University Cardinal	Old Dominion University Monarchs	95%
2	65	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Boston College Eagles	45%	upset
2	66	Yale University Bulldogs	College of Charleston Cougars 1	81%
2	67	College of Charleston Cougars 2	University of South Florida Bulls	29%	upset
2	68	Stanford University Cardinal	Georgetown University Hoyas	54%
2	69	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	40%	upset
2	70	Boston College Eagles	Old Dominion University Monarchs	95%
2	71	Yale University Bulldogs	University of South Florida Bulls	89%
2	72	Stanford University Cardinal	College of Charleston Cougars 1	65%
2	73	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	College of Charleston Cougars 2	86%
2	74	Georgetown University Hoyas	Old Dominion University Monarchs	94%
2	75	Boston College Eagles	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	65%
2	76	University of South Florida Bulls	Stanford University Cardinal	23%	upset
2	77	Yale University Bulldogs	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	73%
2	78	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs	91%
2	79	College of Charleston Cougars 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	20%	upset
2	80	Georgetown University Hoyas	Boston College Eagles	44%	upset
2	81	Stanford University Cardinal	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	69%
2	82	University of South Florida Bulls	Old Dominion University Monarchs	85%
2	83	Yale University Bulldogs	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	80%
2	84	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Georgetown University Hoyas	39%	upset
2	85	Boston College Eagles	College of Charleston Cougars 2	88%
2	86	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	Old Dominion University Monarchs	93%
2	87	Stanford University Cardinal	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	63%
2	88	Georgetown University Hoyas	University of South Florida Bulls	74%
2	89	Yale University Bulldogs	College of Charleston Cougars 2	92%
2	90	College of Charleston Cougars 1	Boston College Eagles	33%	upset
2	91	Georgetown University Hoyas	Stanford University Cardinal	46%	upset
2	92	Yale University Bulldogs	College of Charleston Cougars 1	81%
2	93	Yale University Bulldogs	Stanford University Cardinal	70%
2	94	Georgetown University Hoyas	College of Charleston Cougars 1	62%
2	95	Stanford University Cardinal	College of Charleston Cougars 1	65%
2	96	Georgetown University Hoyas	Yale University Bulldogs	27%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Hoyas	1	Eagles	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Bulls	2	Monarchs
Yale University Bulldogs	7–2	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars 1	8–10	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	6–3	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–6	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars 2	8–10	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Hoyas	1	Eagles	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Bulls	2	Monarchs
Yale University Bulldogs	10–2	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	9–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–4	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars 1	8–13	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars 2	8–13	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars 2	3-5-6
4	Cougars 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
5	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
7	Cougars 2	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
8	Cougars 1	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
10	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
11	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars 2	4-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars 1	3-4-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
14	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
16	Cougars 1	1-2-5	def.	Cougars 2	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
18	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
21	Cougars 1	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
22	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Cougars 2	3-4-5
23	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
24	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
25	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
27	Cougars 1	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Cougars 2	3-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
30	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
33	Cougars 1	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
34	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Cougars 2	3-5-6
35	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
37	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6 DNF
38	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
39	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Cougars 1	2-4-5
40	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cougars 2	1-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
42	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
43	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars 2	4-5-6
45	Cougars 1	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
46	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
47	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars 2	4-5-6
49	Cougars 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
52	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars 2	3-4-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars 1	3-4-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
55	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
56	Cougars 2	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cougars 1	3-4-5
58	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
59	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
60	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
61	Cougars 1	1-2-5	def.	Cougars 2	3-4-6
62	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
63	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
65	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars 1	3-4-6
67	Cougars 2	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
69	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
70	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
71	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
72	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Cougars 1	3-4-5
73	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars 2	4-5-6
74	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
75	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
76	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
78	Cougars 1	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
79	Cougars 2	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
80	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
81	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
82	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
83	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
84	Cougars 1	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
85	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cougars 2	1-5-6
86	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
87	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
88	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
89	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cougars 2	3-4-5
90	Cougars 1	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
91	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
92	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars 1	4-5-6
93	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
94	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars 1	3-4-5
95	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Cougars 1	2-5-6
96	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17	Charlotte Belling '16 Katherine Gaumond '15 Meredith Megarry '17
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Hans Henken '15 Kieran Chung '15	Helena Scutt '14 Mary Vangelos '17 Haley Kirk '15
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Bettina Redway '16 Katia Dasilva '15 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
College of Charleston	Cougars 1	Jake Reynolds '16 Nick Johnstone '15 Ryan Davidson '16	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Septima Mcadams '16 Emily Stuart '16
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Shelby Hamilton '14 Katherine Wysocki '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Ian Liberty '14 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Kelley Merryman '14 Allison Shane '15 Nicole Deangeli '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Michael Popp '16	Chelsea Smith '14 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Elizabeth Morrison '14
University of South Florida	Bulls	Christopher Stocke '15 Connor Brady '15 Fernando Monllor '16	Ali Yarbrough '16 Charlie Bess '17 Rebecca Campbell '16
College of Charleston	Cougars 2	Alexander Whipple '16 Charles Rees '16 Jack Jorgensen '16 Reed Baldridge '16 Roy Shaw '14	Morgan Buckley '15 Tierney Driscoll '15 Michaela Reynolds '16 Katherine Baker '14
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Esteban Forrer '16 Gabriel Smith '17 Joseph David '16 Nathan Fields '17	Julia Wiesner '14 Katelyn Talley '16 Kaylie Gallagher '16

Conditions — 03/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 59°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 18.1 kn

From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1024.7 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu