St. Mary's College of Maryland '14
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.48 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 162 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.17 (fleet 2.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 136–63 (68%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 73–31 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 6 | 63–32 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (144 matches) the record is 103–41 against 92.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+10.9). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.21 | 3.65 | 18–7 | 16.2 | +0.44 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.25 | 3.62 | 18–3 | 17.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 4.48 | 16–5 | 10.8 | +1.29 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.33 | 3.24 | 8–4 | 8.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.29 | 2.83 | 7–4 | 7.9 | −0.46 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 2.43 | 6–8 | 8.4 | −0.91 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.22 | 4.22 | 16–7 | 11.7 | +1.00 | 3.1 | 3% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.35 | 4.33 | 14–3 | 11.7 | +0.98 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.6 | 2.58 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 72% | — |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.8 | 3.66 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 7.0 | 3.69 |
| MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 4.4 | 3.26 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 1.57 |
| ICSA/LP Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.8 | 4.01 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.2 | 4.08 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 77% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.0 | 3.48 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.9 | 4.74 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.2 | 2.88 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 5.6 | 3.90 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.8 | 3.16 |
| LP / ICSA Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.7 | 2.57 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.7 | 4.05 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 5.1 | 3.78 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 6 | 8.8 | 3.12 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.6 | 3.05 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Senators Cup | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.6 | 2.18 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 4.3 | 4.23 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 18 | 8.9 | 2.87 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 3.60 |
| ICSA Men's Singlehandeds Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.5 | 3.17 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.2 | 4.68 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 16 | 6.8 | 3.38 |
| Old Guard/ Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 2.90 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Skipper | B | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.9 | 4.08 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.7 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Top Nine Invitational | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.0 | 2.92 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 5.3 | 3.81 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 6.0 | 3.73 |
| Laser South #2 Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 2.93 |
| Carl Van Duyne Maisa Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.1 | 2.83 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
