Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/23/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–3
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	10–4
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	9–5
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–6
5	Boston College	Eagles	8–7
6	Dartmouth College	Big Green	5–9
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3–11
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 720 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 57 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.556 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	12.55 school +0.35	Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 3.90 Oliver Toole / Haley Kirk 4.13 Kevin Laube / Carolyn Ortel 4.10	80%	11–3 (79%)	−0.2
2	College of Charleston Cougars	2	12.20	Ben Spector / Alicia Blumenthal 3.85 Mac Mace / Corinna Decollibus 3.82 Juan Maegli / Septima Mcadams 4.53	73%	10–4 (71%)	−0.2
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	11.30 school +0.18	Alex Post / Katia Dasilva 3.46 Sean Golden / Victoria Lynch 3.38 Nevin Snow / Annalee Leggett 4.24	52%	9–5 (64%)	+1.7
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	11.53 school +0.34	Fletcher Sims / Katherine Gluskin 3.72 John Wallace / Mayumi Roller 3.44 Joshua Greenslade / Kayla Mccomb 3.95	58%	9–6 (60%)	+0.3
5	Boston College Eagles	5	11.17 school −0.27	Maximiliano Agnese / Molly Clarke 3.71 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.04 Alex Cook / Katherine Wysocki 3.45	49%	8–7 (53%)	+0.7
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	8	9.94	Deirdre Lambert / Carissa Crawford Matthew Wefer / Avery Plough Bo Mcclatchy / Charlotte Snow	21%	5–9 (36%)	+2.1
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	10.63 school +0.13	Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.65 Devin Laviano / Elizabeth Morrison 3.37 Taylor Vann / Jocelynn Knudsen 3.44	37%	3–11 (21%)	−2.1
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	10.40 home +0.24	Zach Runci / Jill Fattibene 2.73 Dillon Paiva / Chloe Constants 3.81 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.60	31%	2–12 (14%)	−2.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Dartmouth College	9.94	10.74	5–9	2.9	+0.81	1.3	14%
3	Georgetown University	11.30	11.90	9–5	7.3	+0.60	0.7	24%
5	Boston College	11.17	11.40	8–7	7.3	+0.23	0.1	45%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.53	11.64	9–6	8.7	+0.11	0.0	54%
2	College of Charleston	12.20	12.12	10–4	10.2	−0.08	0.0	69%
1	Stanford University	12.55	12.46	11–3	11.2	−0.09	0.0	70%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	10.63	9.76	3–11	5.1	−0.88	1.3	95%
8	Old Dominion University	10.40	9.28	2–12	4.4	−1.12	1.7	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.27	4.08	5–9	2.9	+0.81	1.3	14%
Matthew Wefer	Dartmouth College	3.50	4.31	5–9	2.9	+0.81	1.3	14%
Bo Mcclatchy	Dartmouth College	2.64	3.45	5–9	2.9	+0.81	1.3	14%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.46	4.07	9–5	7.3	+0.60	0.7	24%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.38	3.98	9–5	7.3	+0.60	0.7	24%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.24	4.84	9–5	7.3	+0.60	0.7	24%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.04	4.27	8–7	7.3	+0.23	0.1	45%
Alex Cook	Boston College	3.45	3.68	8–7	7.3	+0.23	0.1	45%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.72	3.83	9–6	8.7	+0.11	0.0	54%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.44	3.55	9–6	8.7	+0.11	0.0	54%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.95	4.06	9–6	8.7	+0.11	0.0	54%
Ben Spector	College of Charleston	3.85	3.77	10–4	10.2	−0.08	0.0	69%
Mac Mace	College of Charleston	3.82	3.74	10–4	10.2	−0.08	0.0	69%
Juan Maegli	College of Charleston	4.53	4.45	10–4	10.2	−0.08	0.0	69%
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	3.90	3.81	11–3	11.2	−0.09	0.0	70%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	4.13	4.04	11–3	11.2	−0.09	0.0	70%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.10	4.01	11–3	11.2	−0.09	0.0	70%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.65	2.77	3–11	5.1	−0.88	1.3	95%
Devin Laviano	U. S. Naval Academy	3.37	2.49	3–11	5.1	−0.88	1.3	95%
Taylor Vann	U. S. Naval Academy	3.44	2.57	3–11	5.1	−0.88	1.3	95%
Zach Runci	Old Dominion University	2.73	1.60	2–12	4.4	−1.12	1.7	97%
Dillon Paiva	Old Dominion University	3.81	2.68	2–12	4.4	−1.12	1.7	97%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.60	2.48	2–12	4.4	−1.12	1.7	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	71%
1	2	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	24%	upset
1	3	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	37%	upset
1	4	Stanford University	College of Charleston	58%
1	5	Old Dominion University	Dartmouth College	68%
1	6	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	34%	upset
1	7	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	67%
1	8	Boston College	Stanford University	19%	upset
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	56%
1	10	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	45%	upset
1	11	Boston College	Dartmouth College	79%
1	12	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	13	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	71%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	15	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	94%
1	16	Boston College	Old Dominion University	67%
1	17	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
1	18	Stanford University	Georgetown University	78%
1	19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	84%
1	20	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	86%
1	21	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
1	22	Boston College	Georgetown University	46%	upset
1	23	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	91%
1	24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	75%
1	25	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
1	26	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	79%
1	27	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	27%	upset
1	28	College of Charleston	Boston College	74%
2	29	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	29%	upset
2	30	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	35%	upset
2	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	58%
2	32	Stanford University	College of Charleston	59%
2	33	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
2	34	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
2	35	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
2	36	Stanford University	Boston College	79%
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	56%
2	38	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
2	39	Dartmouth College	Boston College	24%	upset
2	40	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	90%
2	41	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	29%	upset
2	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
2	43	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	92%
2	44	Boston College	Old Dominion University	69%
2	45	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
2	46	Georgetown University	Stanford University	22%	upset
2	47	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	81%
2	48	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	86%
2	49	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
2	50	Georgetown University	Boston College	52%
2	51	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	11%	upset
2	52	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	76%
2	53	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	65%
2	54	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	76%
2	55	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
2	56	College of Charleston	Boston College	72%
4	57	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	57%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Hoyas	Seahawks	Eagles	Green	Midshipmen	Monarchs
Stanford University Cardinal	5–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–1	W	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Cougars	Hoyas	Seahawks	Eagles	Green	Midshipmen	Monarchs
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

	Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Eagles
	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–0	✕	W
	Boston College Eagles	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
2	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
3	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
5	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
6	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
7	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
8	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
9	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
11	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
13	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
15	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
17	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
19	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
20	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
21	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
22	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
23	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
24	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
25	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
26	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
27	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
28	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
29	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
30	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
31	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
32	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
33	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
34	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
35	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
36	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
37	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
38	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
39	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
41	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
44	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
45	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
46	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
47	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
48	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
49	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
50	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
51	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
52	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
53	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
56	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
57	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Kevin Laube '14 Mateo Vargas '14 Oliver Toole '14	Carolyn Ortel '14 Tally Buckstaff '14 Haley Kirk '15
College of Charleston	Cougars	Ben Spector '13 Juan Maegli '13 Mac Mace '13	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Septima Mcadams '16 Corinna Decollibus '13
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Katia Dasilva '15 Annalee Leggett '13 Victoria Lynch '13
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Katherine Gluskin '13 Mayumi Roller '13 Kayla Mccomb '13
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Cook '13 Erika Reineke '17 Maximiliano Agnese '16	Katherine Wysocki '15 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Molly Clarke '13
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bo Mcclatchy '13 Deirdre Lambert '15 Matthew Wefer '14	Charlotte Snow '15 Carissa Crawford '14 Avery Plough '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Devin Laviano '13 Michael Grove '14 Taylor Vann '13	Elizabeth Morrison '14 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Jocelynn Knudsen '13
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dillon Paiva '13 Esteban Forrer '16 Zach Runci '13	Chloe Constants '14 Julia Wiesner '14 Jill Fattibene '14

Conditions — 03/23/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.6 kn

avg · max 5.5 kn

Gusts to 13.6 kn

From NW (305°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1016.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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