College of Charleston '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.64 (fleet 3.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 64–26 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 6 | 64–26 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 20–8 against 20.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.59 | 3.46 | 13–7 | 13.5 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2013-04-13 | SAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.87 | 3.30 | 7–1 | 7.4 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| SAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 91% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | 2.25 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | 2.50 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.7 | 3.50 |
| SAISA Fall Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.4 | 5.08 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 3.68 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.5 | 2.91 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 3.73 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.8 | 3.21 |
| SAISA Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 4.00 |
| Gill Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 3.95 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.0 | 3.78 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Fall Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.3 | 4.02 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.1 | 4.25 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 3.88 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.4 | 3.99 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.7 | 3.78 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.7 | 3.85 |
| ICSA Coed Dinghy Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.0 | 3.89 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| 26th U S C Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 4.03 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 4.08 |
| SAISA Co-Ed Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.7 | 3.53 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 6.2 | 3.81 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.7 | 3.13 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.6 | 3.94 |
| Atlantic Coast Dinghies | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.8 | 2.51 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 3.03 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.6 | 3.79 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.3 | 3.38 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.1 | 3.53 |
| 68th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 20 | 12.4 | 2.52 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
