St. Mary's Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/09/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–2
2	Boston College	Eagles	10–4
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	9–5
4	Brown University	Bears	7–7
4	Yale University	Bulldogs	7–7
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–8
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	3–6
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	2–7
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	2–7
10	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 530 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 60 matches (55%) with a log-loss of 0.691 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	6	11.48 school −0.17	Kevin Laube / Carolyn Ortel Kieran Chung / Yuri Namikawa 3.50 Oliver Toole / Haley Kirk 4.00	48%	12–2 (86%)	+5.3
2	Boston College Eagles	7	11.31 school −0.48	William Bailey / Molly Clarke 3.95 Alex Cook / Laura Mckenna 3.90 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 3.72 5–2 Raul Rios / Patrick Hession 4.15 4–2 Maximiliano Agnese / Elizabeth Barnard 3.45 1–0	43%	10–4 (71%)	+4.0
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	12.24 school +0.20	Chris Barnard / Hilary Kenyon 4.36 Nevin Snow / Victoria Lynch 4.29 Alex Post / Katia Dasilva 3.33	66%	9–5 (64%)	−0.2
4	Brown University Bears	3	11.80 school +0.14	Colin Smith / Louisa Chafee 3.95 Tommy Fink / Ashley Noble 4.02 Tyler Rice / Michael Yanagisawa 3.59	56%	7–7 (50%)	−0.8
4	Yale University Bulldogs	5	11.71 school +0.30	Cam Cullman / Marlena Fauer 3.26 Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 3.76 Graham Landy / Heather May 4.04	52%	7–7 (50%)	−0.2
6	College of Charleston Cougars	1	12.75 school +0.26	Mac Mace / Corinna Decollibus 3.88 Ben Spector / Alicia Blumenthal 3.92 Juan Maegli / Septima Mcadams 4.62	78%	6–8 (43%)	−4.9
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	11.52 school +0.56, home +0.30	John Wallace / Katherine Gluskin 3.25 Joshua Greenslade / Kelley Merryman 3.96 Jacob La Dow / Ainsley Thomson 3.23 1–4 Fletcher Sims / Ben Lezin 3.56 1–1 Fletcher Sims / Ainsley Thomson 3.51 1–1	54%	3–6 (33%)	−1.9
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9	10.05 school −0.14	Johnny Norfleet / Bridget Nannig 3.78 Louis Padnos / Jane Rew Eddie Cox / Catherine Pelo 2.98 1–4 William Godfrey / Catherine Pelo 2.85 1–3	21%	2–7 (22%)	+0.1
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8	10.78 school +0.29	Taylor Vann / Jocelynn Knudsen 3.46 Devin Laviano / Elizabeth Morrison 3.39 Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.59	38%	2–7 (22%)	−1.4
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	10.05	Dillon Paiva / Chloe Constants 3.69 Zach Runci / Jill Fattibene 2.73 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.56	21%	2–7 (22%)	+0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.48	13.55	12–2	6.7	+2.07	7.1	<1%
2	Boston College	11.31	12.67	10–4	6.0	+1.35	3.8	2%
10	Old Dominion University	10.05	10.16	2–7	1.9	+0.11	0.0	59%
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.05	10.10	2–7	1.9	+0.05	0.0	62%
3	Georgetown University	12.24	12.17	9–5	9.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
4	Yale University	11.71	11.63	7–7	7.2	−0.08	0.0	66%
4	Brown University	11.80	11.54	7–7	7.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
8	U. S. Naval Academy	10.78	9.89	2–7	3.4	−0.89	0.9	93%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.52	10.50	3–6	4.9	−1.02	1.4	96%
6	College of Charleston	12.75	11.06	6–8	10.9	−1.69	6.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	3.63	5.70	12–2	6.7	+2.07	7.1	<1%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	3.50	5.57	12–2	6.7	+2.07	7.1	<1%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	4.00	6.07	12–2	6.7	+2.07	7.1	<1%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	3.72	5.44	5–2	2.3	+1.72	3.2	4%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.95	5.31	10–4	6.0	+1.35	3.8	2%
Alex Cook	Boston College	3.90	5.25	10–4	6.0	+1.35	3.8	2%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.15	4.82	4–2	3.2	+0.67	0.4	39%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.85	3.19	1–3	0.8	+0.34	0.1	59%
Dillon Paiva	Old Dominion University	3.69	3.79	2–7	1.9	+0.11	0.0	59%
Zach Runci	Old Dominion University	2.73	2.83	2–7	1.9	+0.11	0.0	59%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.56	3.66	2–7	1.9	+0.11	0.0	59%
Louis Padnos	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.48	3.53	2–7	1.9	+0.05	0.0	62%
Chris Barnard	Georgetown University	4.36	4.29	9–5	9.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.29	4.22	9–5	9.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.33	3.27	9–5	9.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
Cam Cullman	Yale University	3.26	3.18	7–7	7.2	−0.08	0.0	66%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	3.76	3.68	7–7	7.2	−0.08	0.0	66%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.04	3.96	7–7	7.2	−0.08	0.0	66%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.98	2.77	1–4	1.2	−0.21	0.0	76%
Colin Smith	Brown University	3.95	3.69	7–7	7.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
Tommy Fink	Brown University	4.02	3.76	7–7	7.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.59	3.34	7–7	7.8	−0.26	0.1	77%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.56	3.06	2–2	2.4	−0.50	0.2	85%
Taylor Vann	U. S. Naval Academy	3.46	2.57	2–7	3.4	−0.89	0.9	93%
Devin Laviano	U. S. Naval Academy	3.39	2.50	2–7	3.4	−0.89	0.9	93%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.59	2.70	2–7	3.4	−0.89	0.9	93%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.25	2.23	3–6	4.9	−1.02	1.4	96%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.96	2.94	3–6	4.9	−1.02	1.4	96%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.23	1.64	1–4	2.4	−1.59	1.6	98%
Mac Mace	College of Charleston	3.88	2.19	6–8	10.9	−1.69	6.3	>99%
Ben Spector	College of Charleston	3.92	2.23	6–8	10.9	−1.69	6.3	>99%
Juan Maegli	College of Charleston	4.62	2.93	6–8	10.9	−1.69	6.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	84%
1	2	Yale University	College of Charleston	21%	upset
1	3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	32%	upset
1	4	Georgetown University	Brown University	61%
1	5	Boston College	Stanford University	53%
1	6	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	94%
1	7	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
1	8	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	9	Stanford University	Brown University	36%	upset
1	10	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	38%	upset
1	11	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
1	12	Georgetown University	Yale University	66%
1	13	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
1	14	Brown University	Boston College	65%
1	15	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
1	16	Old Dominion University	Yale University	17%	upset
1	17	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	18	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	86%
1	19	Boston College	College of Charleston	17%	upset
1	20	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%	upset
1	21	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	90%
1	22	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	27%	upset
1	24	College of Charleston	Stanford University	79%
1	25	Boston College	Georgetown University	34%	upset
1	26	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
1	27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	51%
1	28	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
1	29	Stanford University	Georgetown University	32%	upset
1	30	Brown University	Yale University	51%
1	31	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	81%
1	32	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	35%	upset
1	33	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	81%
1	34	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	38%	upset
1	35	Boston College	Yale University	45%	upset
1	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	79%
1	37	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
1	38	Brown University	College of Charleston	28%	upset
1	39	Boston College	Old Dominion University	81%
1	40	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
1	41	Stanford University	Yale University	45%	upset
1	42	Brown University	Old Dominion University	85%
1	43	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
1	44	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
1	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	48%	upset
6	46	Yale University	College of Charleston	28%	upset
6	47	Brown University	Georgetown University	39%	upset
6	48	Stanford University	Boston College	60%
6	49	Brown University	College of Charleston	28%	upset
6	50	Yale University	Boston College	56%
6	51	Stanford University	Georgetown University	35%	upset
6	52	Boston College	College of Charleston	17%	upset
6	53	Stanford University	Brown University	46%	upset
6	54	Georgetown University	Yale University	60%
6	55	Stanford University	College of Charleston	25%	upset
6	56	Boston College	Brown University	35%	upset
6	57	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	63%
6	58	Stanford University	Yale University	46%	upset
6	59	Georgetown University	Boston College	67%
6	60	Yale University	Brown University	51%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Eagles	Hoyas	Bears	Bulldogs	Cougars	Seahawks	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Monarchs
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–4	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	5–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Eagles	Hoyas	Bears	Bulldogs	Cougars
Stanford University Cardinal	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–3	L	W	✕	L	W	L
Brown University Bears	2–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–2	L	W	L	W	✕	W
College of Charleston Cougars	1–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
3	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
5	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
6	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
7	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
8	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
9	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
10	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
11	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
12	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
13	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
14	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
15	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
16	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
18	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
19	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
20	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
21	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
22	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
24	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
26	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
27	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
28	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
29	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
31	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
32	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
33	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
34	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6 DSQ
35	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
36	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
38	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
39	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
40	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
41	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
42	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
43	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
44	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
46	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
47	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
49	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
50	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
52	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
53	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
56	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
57	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
58	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
59	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
60	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Kevin Laube '14 Kieran Chung '15 Oliver Toole '14	Carolyn Ortel '14 Yuri Namikawa '14 Haley Kirk '15
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Cook '13 Erika Reineke '17 Maximiliano Agnese '16 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Laura Mckenna '13 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Patrick Hession '13 Molly Clarke '13
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Chris Barnard '13 Nevin Snow '16	Katia Dasilva '15 Hilary Kenyon '13 Victoria Lynch '13
Brown University	Bears	Colin Smith '13 Tommy Fink '13 Tyler Rice '14	Louisa Chafee '14 Ashley Noble '13 Michael Yanagisawa '13
Yale University	Bulldogs	Cam Cullman '13 Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15	Marlena Fauer '14 Charlotte Belling '16 Heather May '13
College of Charleston	Cougars	Ben Spector '13 Juan Maegli '13 Mac Mace '13	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Septima Mcadams '16 Corinna Decollibus '13
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Jacob La Dow '15 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Ben Lezin '13 Ainsley Thomson '13 Katherine Gluskin '13 Kelley Merryman '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Johnny Norfleet '13 Louis Padnos '14 William Godfrey '16	Catherine Pelo '13 Bridget Nannig '13 Jane Rew '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Devin Laviano '13 Michael Grove '14 Taylor Vann '13	Elizabeth Morrison '14 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Jocelynn Knudsen '13
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dillon Paiva '13 Esteban Forrer '16 Zach Runci '13	Chloe Constants '14 Julia Wiesner '14 Jill Fattibene '14

Conditions — 03/09/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1026.0 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.8 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From NNW (335°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1026.0 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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