Hobart and William Smith Colleges '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.88 (fleet 2.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 46–62 (43%) as crew 9–4 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 32–39 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 14–23 | 9–4 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (74 matches) the record is 32–42 against 31.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.52 | 2.06 | 6–15 | 7.4 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.77 | 2.94 | 6–1 | 5.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 3.15 | 14–7 | 11.9 | +0.48 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 2.83 | 4–9 | 4.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 2.57 | 2–7 | 2.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.17 | 0.17 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 2.5 | 3.26 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.8 | 2.27 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.0 | 1.90 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | A, B | 9 | 14.2 | — |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.8 | 2.45 |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 1.6 | 2.70 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | 0.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
