| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 1–6 |
| 7 |  |
Columbia University | Lions | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
University of Buffalo | Bulls | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,109 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 28 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.349 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cornell University | 8.64 | 11.64 | 7–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.8 | 6% |
| 7 | Columbia University | 3.10 | 4.71 | 1–6 | 0.3 | +1.62 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 3 | SUNY Maritime College | 8.41 | 8.69 | 5–2 | 4.7 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 9.39 | 9.56 | 6–1 | 5.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 5 | George Washington University | 6.56 | 6.69 | 3–4 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 8 | University of Buffalo | 4.80 | 3.95 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.85 | 0.2 | 93% |
| 4 | Washington College | 8.61 | 7.30 | 4–3 | 5.3 | −1.31 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 6 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 5.93 | 3.68 | 1–6 | 2.5 | −2.26 | 2.3 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Red | Statesmen | Privateers | Shoremen | Colonials | Mariners | Lions | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell University Big Red | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Columbia University Lions | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| University of Buffalo Bulls | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Big Red | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Lions | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
