U. S. Merchant Marine Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 (fleet 1.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 2–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 2–10 against 4.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 1.81 | -0.44 | 1–6 | 2.5 | −2.26 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 1.58 | 0.75 | 1–4 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.1 | 1.57 |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.5 | 3.12 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.8 | 1.92 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.6 | 2.02 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 14.0 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 7 | 14.4 | 0.76 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.1 | 1.70 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.2 | 1.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
