| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 4–1 |
| 1 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton University | Pirates | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 1–4 |
| 5 |  |
University of Virginia | Wahoos | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,886 team race matches sailed before 2014-02-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 15 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.551 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.18 ± 0.54: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 6.62 | 7.89 | 4–1 | 3.1 | +1.27 | 0.8 | 35% |
| 3 | Christopher Newport University | 5.96 | 6.69 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 4 | Hampton University | 5.24 | 5.82 | 2–3 | 1.4 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 5 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 5.43 | 4.60 | 1–4 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 5 | University of Virginia | 5.50 | 4.55 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −0.95 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 1 | SUNY Maritime College | 8.50 | 7.23 | 4–1 | 4.7 | −1.27 | 0.7 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Privateers | Captains | Pirates | Mariners | Wahoos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Hampton University Pirates | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| University of Virginia Wahoos | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Privateers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Wahoos | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 4 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Pirates | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Captains | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Pirates | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Captains | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Pirates | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Captains | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Pirates | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Killian Corbishley '14 Philip Youngberg '15 Spencer Nora '17 |
Mary Robertson '17 Karen Vargas '16 Aaron Hull '16 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Arthur Libby '17 Julia Paxton '14 Nick Valente '16 |
Zachery Harris '15 Paige Conlin '14 George Roberson '15 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Annie Eckmann '14 Austin Powers '17 Ben Buhl '16 |
Kayla Harper '16 Laura Kilgore '17 Andrew Hall '17 |
|
Hampton University | Pirates | Giuditta Di Laghi '16 Kimannee Simon '14 Veronica Maccari '17 |
Ramatoulie Sallah-Mohammed '15 Albert Berk Toledo '15 Joshua Gopeesingh '14 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | Charles Skord '17 Dylan Marohn '16 Max Neubelt '17 |
Charles Hageboeck '17 Patrick Scollard '17 Wardlaw Skinner '17 |
|
University of Virginia | Wahoos | Christopher Craven '16 Christopher Stessing '14 Ellen Hubbard '14 |
Olivia Bicks '17 Eliza Schuett '17 Jordan Cornell '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
