SUNY Maritime College '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 50.37 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 10 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.89 (fleet 2.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 38–71 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 22–21 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 16–50 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 22–21 against 15.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.79 | 3.07 | 5–2 | 4.7 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 4.55 | 12–9 | 4.0 | +1.94 | 12.1 | <1% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 1.51 | 1–9 | 2.4 | −1.30 | 1.2 | 96% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | skipper | 2.84 | 1.57 | 4–1 | 4.7 | −1.27 | 0.7 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.3 | 1.73 |
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 2.39 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.5 | 2.44 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 2.80 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.0 | 2.24 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.7 | 2.42 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | 2.52 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.1 | 2.17 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.2 | 3.35 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.8 | 3.11 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 1.90 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | B | 10 | 10.3 | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.3 | 1.48 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.2 | 2.80 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 3.08 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.8 | 2.61 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.7 | 2.23 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 3.12 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.9 | 2.98 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.4 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 1.92 |
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.2 | 1.92 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 2.58 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.1 | 1.78 |
| Top 9 Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.2 | -0.41 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.0 | 1.73 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.7 | 2.15 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Top Nine Invitational | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | 1.35 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 1.46 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.3 | 1.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
