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HWS Fall Intersectional

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 66 32 98
2 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 58 57 115
3 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 36 97 133
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 89 48 137
5 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 77 67 144
6 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 78 85 163
7 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 90 113 203
8 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 103 101 204
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 111 94 205
10 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 125 85 210
11 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 112 107 219
12 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 114 118 232
13 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 116 126 242
14 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 113 133 246
15 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 152 204 356
16 Huskies Huskies Huskies 204 204 408
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 6 6 2 2 3 4 2 4 1 2 1 3 36 Dillon Paiva '13
Haley Garst '14
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 9 3 3 6 1 3 4 3 2 12 3 9 58 Tyler Steel '13 [1-12]
Morgan Keating '13 [1-8]
Paige Conlin '14 [9-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 1 5 7 9 7 7 7 8 4 6 4 66 Taylor Vann '13
Alexandra Asuncion '15
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 9 11 10 11 2 6 8 10 5 2 1 77 Christopher Price '14
Matthew Habig '13
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 11 11 8 4 10 1 1 1 6 3 10 12 78 John Ortel '15
Samantha Steele '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 13 8 1 3 2 8 9 6 13 14 4 8 89 Eddie Cox '16
Sarah Hogg '16
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 2 6 9 15 14 14 2 14 1 8 2 90 Connor Godfrey '16
Jennifer Irwin '15
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 5 5 15 1 5 15 12 13 5 10 12 5 103 Connor Trepton '15
Arielle Henderson '13
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 10 10 13 8 6 5 8 5 12 7 14 13 111 Andrew Tamblyn '13
Josh Gershuny '14
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 15 4 12 13 12 5 10 7 11 9 6 112 Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [1-12]
Juliet Levine '14 [1-6, 9-12]
David Sternau '15 [7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 7 12 9 11 8 11 3 15 3 13 11 10 113 Ryan Seago '14 [1-12]
Evelyn Hull '13 [1-2, 7-12]
Elizabeth Wallace '15 [3-6]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 12 4 12 5 14 13 10 12 4 9 5 14 114 Samuel Bedinger '13 [1-12]
Matt Lawler '13 [1-4, 9-12]
Eric Siegel '16 [5-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 7 10 13 4 9 13 9 9 8 15 15 116 Andrew Bates '15
Cara Halm '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 14 14 7 14 7 10 11 11 11 6 13 7 125 Bryan White '13
Rebecca Campbell '16
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 15 13 14 15 12 6 15 14 15 15 7 11 152 Mary Margaret Meehan '15
Laura Maranto '14
Huskies Huskies Huskies DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 204
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 1 1 9 4 4 1 1 3 1 1 4 32 Michael Popp '16 [1-12]
Chelsea Smith '14 [1-6, 9-12]
Connor Hendi '15 [7-8]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 10 3 2 6 1 4 4 1 5 8 1 48 Stewart Draheim '16
Bridget Nannig '13
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 6 3 13 1 3 2 5 5 5 6 3 5 57 Julia Paxton '14 [1-12]
Paige Conlin '14 [1-6]
Andrew Haggerty '14 [7-8]
Morgan Keating '13 [9-12]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 8 7 9 3 2 10 9 2 6 3 2 6 67 Colin Murphy '15
Emily Petno '16
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 4 12 5 DSQ 5 9 2 10 4 11 4 2 85 Benjamin Mohney '15
Aj Degen '16
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 5 11 8 4 1 7 7 7 9 2 13 11 85 Max Kohrman '15
Noelle Herring '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 12 6 4 5 12 8 3 8 7 12 10 7 94 Ian Hollerbach '14
Chelsea Maguire '13
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 13 13 12 13 10 3 6 3 2 10 9 3 97 Zach Runci '13 [1-12]
Jill Fattibene '14 [1-6, 9-12]
Cooper Paiva '16 [7-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 5 14 11 8 5 12 13 12 7 5 8 101 Brendan Boylan '13 [1-6]
John Kinzel '14 [7-12]
Erin Monahan '14 [1-2, 9-12]
Peter Lewis '14 [3-8]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 9 2 7 7 11 12 14 6 11 8 11 9 107 Duncan Howes '15 [1-12]
Erin Ahlers '13 [1-4, 9-12]
Gregory Reppucci '15 [5-8]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 14 8 11 10 7 11 10 9 13 4 6 10 113 Alex Reynolds '14
Emma Huntress '16
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 11 4 6 6 9 13 8 14 14 14 7 12 118 Thomas Heist '15 [1-10]
Eric Siegel '16 [11-12]
Richard Grouser Iii '16 [1-4, 7-12]
Eleanor Conroy '15 [5-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 7 14 2 12 13 6 11 11 10 13 14 13 126 Francois Conde-Jahn '13
Erin Hofstetter '14
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 10 9 10 8 14 14 13 12 8 9 12 14 133 Thomas Etheridge '16 [1-12]
Karinne Smolenyak '15 [1-4, 9-12]
Alex Mayo '15 [5-8]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 204 John Koehler '13
Catherine Thies '16
Huskies Huskies Huskies DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 204
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions11335577991111
HuskiesHuskies Huskies1313151511335577
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red2244668810101212
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green3355779911111313
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams446688101012121414
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen557799111113131515
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners66881010121214141616
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines779911111313151511
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen88101012121414161622
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers991111131315151133
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs10101212141416162244
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks111113131515113355
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1414161622446688
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal121214141616224466
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen15151133557799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1616224466881010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2244668810101212
HuskiesHuskies Huskies1414161622446688
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red3355779911111313
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green446688101012121414
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams557799111113131515
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen66881010121214141616
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners779911111313151511
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines88101012121414161622
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen991111131315151133
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers10101212141416162244
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs111113131515113355
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks121214141616224466
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls15151133557799
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1313151511335577
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1616224466881010
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers11335577991111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Columbia University Columbia University Mary Margaret Meehan '15 Laura Maranto '14
Lions John Koehler '13 Catherine Thies '16
Cornell University Cornell University Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 [1-12] Juliet Levine '14 [1-6, 9-12]
David Sternau '15 [7-8]
Big Red Duncan Howes '15 [1-12] Erin Ahlers '13 [1-4, 9-12]
Gregory Reppucci '15 [5-8]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Christopher Price '14 Matthew Habig '13
Big Green Colin Murphy '15 Emily Petno '16
Fordham University Fordham University Connor Godfrey '16 Jennifer Irwin '15
Rams Alex Reynolds '14 Emma Huntress '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Eddie Cox '16 Sarah Hogg '16
Statesmen Stewart Draheim '16 Bridget Nannig '13
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Dillon Paiva '13 Haley Garst '14
Monarchs Zach Runci '13 [1-12] Jill Fattibene '14 [1-6, 9-12]
Cooper Paiva '16 [7-8]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Andrew Tamblyn '13 Josh Gershuny '14
Hawks Ian Hollerbach '14 Chelsea Maguire '13
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Tyler Steel '13 [1-12] Morgan Keating '13 [1-8]
Paige Conlin '14 [9-12]
Privateers Julia Paxton '14 [1-12] Paige Conlin '14 [1-6]
Andrew Haggerty '14 [7-8]
Morgan Keating '13 [9-12]
Stanford University Stanford University John Ortel '15 Samantha Steele '16
Cardinal Max Kohrman '15 Noelle Herring '16
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Andrew Bates '15 Cara Halm '16
Mariners Francois Conde-Jahn '13 Erin Hofstetter '14
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Taylor Vann '13 Alexandra Asuncion '15
Midshipmen Michael Popp '16 [1-12] Chelsea Smith '14 [1-6, 9-12]
Connor Hendi '15 [7-8]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Ryan Seago '14 [1-12] Evelyn Hull '13 [1-2, 7-12]
Elizabeth Wallace '15 [3-6]
Wolverines Thomas Etheridge '16 [1-12] Karinne Smolenyak '15 [1-4, 9-12]
Alex Mayo '15 [5-8]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bryan White '13 Rebecca Campbell '16
Bulls Benjamin Mohney '15 Aj Degen '16
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Connor Trepton '15 Arielle Henderson '13
Badgers Brendan Boylan '13 [1-6]
John Kinzel '14 [7-12]		 Erin Monahan '14 [1-2, 9-12]
Peter Lewis '14 [3-8]
Washington College Washington College Samuel Bedinger '13 [1-12] Matt Lawler '13 [1-4, 9-12]
Eric Siegel '16 [5-8]
Shoremen Thomas Heist '15 [1-10]
Eric Siegel '16 [11-12]		 Richard Grouser Iii '16 [1-4, 7-12]
Eleanor Conroy '15 [5-6]

Conditions — 10/06/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 24.5 kn
From W (274°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1012.2 hPa Rain0.16 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn · SW 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →