Stewart Draheim

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.52 (fleet 3.49)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	−0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 132–111 (54%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2017	4	35–25	—
Spring 2016	3	23–24	—
Fall 2015	1	9–7	—
Spring 2015	2	17–5	—
Spring 2014	5	40–32	—
Spring 2013	2	8–18	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 15 graded regattas (217 matches) the record is 124–93 against 131.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.0). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2017-04-08	New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	skipper	3.44	4.08	13–10	10.0	+0.64	1.4	12%
2017-04-01	The 36th Lynne Marchiando Trophy	skipper	3.65	3.30	4–10	5.0	−0.35	0.2	80%
2017-03-18	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	3.55	4.88	13–1	11.1	+1.33	1.6	16%
2017-03-11	St. Mary's Team Race Interconference	skipper	3.50	3.91	5–4	4.2	+0.41	0.2	41%
2016-04-02	The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy	skipper	3.58	3.75	6–4	5.7	+0.17	0.0	55%
2016-03-12	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	skipper	3.49	2.79	8–6	9.6	−0.70	0.8	93%
2016-03-05	Bob Bavier Team Race	skipper	3.63	2.53	9–14	13.4	−1.11	3.5	99%
2015-11-07	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	3.80	2.40	9–7	12.7	−1.39	3.9	>99%
2015-04-04	Barque Eagle Team Race	skipper	2.96	5.04	11–1	7.2	+2.07	4.7	2%
2015-03-28	Team Race Invite	skipper	2.98	3.51	6–4	5.0	+0.53	0.4	35%
2014-04-05	Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational	skipper	2.92	2.20	5–13	7.3	−0.73	1.2	94%
2014-03-29	2nd Barque Eagle Team Race	skipper	2.75	2.53	11–6	11.7	−0.22	0.1	76%
2014-03-22	Team Race Invitational	skipper	2.90	2.77	12–3	12.3	−0.13	0.0	72%
2014-03-15	Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy	skipper	3.08	2.30	9–6	11.1	−0.78	1.2	95%
2014-03-01	Thames River Team Race	skipper	3.16	1.80	3–4	4.9	−1.36	1.9	98%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Fall 2013 Team page Season
War Memorial	Skipper	B	8	6.4	3.38
North Fall #1	Skipper	B	13	1.8	4.54
64th Nevins Trophy	Skipper	B	10	11.6	2.40
Navy Fall	Skipper	B	20	13.1	2.49
KP Dinghy Open	Skipper	A	16	6.4	3.27
HWS Fall Intersectional	Skipper	B	9	3.0	3.71
Spring 2013 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted	Skipper	B	8	11.2	2.81
Thompson Trophy	Skipper	B	11	8.5	2.74
Southern New England Team Race	Skipper	TR	11	9%	—
MAISA Spring Open	Skipper	B	8	1.9	3.53
Gill Coed Championships	Skipper	B	6	12.8	2.67
Georgetown Team Race	Skipper	TR	15	47%	—
Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup	Skipper	C	17	10.0	2.31
Fall 2012 Team page Season
Top 9 Regatta	Skipper	B	14	8.2	0.80
Navy Fall	Skipper	B	14	8.3	3.16
MAISA Open	Skipper	A	16	2.2	2.12
HWS Fall Intersectional	Skipper	B	12	4.0	3.56
The Hatch Brown Trophy	Skipper	A	15	13.5	2.22
Cornell Fall Open	Skipper	B	2	4.0	2.00

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ICSA	Stewart Draheim	Roger Williams University	'16

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →