North Fall #1

HostHobart & William Sm
Date09/28/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	37	23	60
2	Cornell University	Big Red	61	40	101
3	Fordham University	Rams	62	61	123
4	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	66	63	129
5	University of Buffalo	Bulls	51	93	144
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	51	103	154
7	Columbia University	Lions	71	106	177
8	Queen's University	Gaels	120	85	205
9	Webb Institute	Clippers	143	80	223
10	Colgate University	Raiders	126	101	227
11	Hamilton College	Hamilton	168	154	322
12	Syracuse University	Orange	181	147	328
13	University of Toronto	True Blue	185	156	341
14	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	128 MRP	242 MRP	370 MRP
15	University of Rochester	U. Rochester	193	190	383
16	Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	180	204 MRP	384 MRP
17	Skidmore College	Skidmore	215 MRP	208 MRP	423 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	1	1	6	3	4	6	6	2	1	2	1	3	1	37	Louis Padnos '14 [1-13] Julia Oak '14 [1-8, 13] Michael Deady '14 [9-12]
University of Buffalo	Bulls	3	2	4	1	6	3	3	6	4	4	4	6	5	51	Griffin Orr '15 Melissa Eiffert '14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	4	4	1	2	2	1	2	3	6	5	6	9	6	51	Andrew Bates '15 [1-13] Cara Halm '16 [1-10, 13] Peter Heinbockel '16 [11-12]
Cornell University	Big Red	2	7	2	4	1	5	1	4	3	3	OCS	7	4	61	Duncan Howes '15 [1-13] Constance Noziere '16 [1-2, 5-8] Claire Riedman '16 [3-4, 9-13]
Fordham University	Rams	5	3	8	8	9	7	5	5	5	1	2	1	3	62	Alecsander Tayler '17 [1-13] Madeleine Sims '16 [1-10] Emma Huntress '16 [11-13]
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	9	6	3	9	5	2	7	1	2	10	3	2	7	66	Mike Carr '15 Whitney Taylor '16
Columbia University	Lions	7	5	5	5	3	4	4	9	8	8	7	4	2	71	Conor Cashel '14 Catherine Duggan '15
Queen's University	Gaels	11	9	10	12	8	8	14	8	9	7	5	8	11	120	Matthew Sherar '17 James Morrin '14
Colgate University	Raiders	6	10	11	10	10	10	8	10	14	9	8	11	9	126	Sara Klik '17 [1-13] Anna Conway '17 [1-6, 9-13] Matthew Nelson '17 [7-8]
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	8	12	7	6	13	11	9	7	7	6	9	5	8	128 MRP	Andrew Beckmann '15 Danielle Jordan '17
Webb Institute	Clippers	10	8	9	7	7	15	17	11	10	11	OCS	10	10	143	Nathan Fast '14 [1-13] James Codega '14 [1-6, 9-10] Ian Lawson '17 [7-8, 11-13]
Hamilton College	Hamilton	DNS	16	13	11	12	9	11	12	16	12	11	12	15	168	Jeremy Acosta '17 John Boudreau '14
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	OCS	17	16	13	16	12	10	16	11	13	12	13	13	180	Daniel Christiani '15 William Mccaffrey '18
Syracuse University	Orange	13	11	15	15	11	17	13	15	15	15	13	14	14	181	Nicholas Woviotis '15 [1-13] Patrick Stege '14 [1-8] Claire Alex '17 [9-12] Kelly Brust '16 [13]
University of Toronto	True Blue	12	14	12	16	14	16	15	14	13	17	14	16	12	185	Rachel Kozicz '16 Rudolph Guliani '16
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	14	13	14	17	15	14	16	13	12	16	15	17	17	193	Kelly Chang '17 Michael Danta '14
Skidmore College	Skidmore	DNS	15	17	14	17	13	12	17	17	14	10	15	16	215 MRP	Benjamin Goldlust '14 Matthew Sumner '15

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3	3	1	1	1	1	2	4	3	1	1	1	1	23	Stewart Draheim '16 [1-13] Allison Aughtry '16 [1-8, 13] Alex Nugent '15 [9-12]
Cornell University	Big Red	4	1	4	4	5	6	3	2	2	3	2	2	2	40	Matthew Schofield '17 Lindsey Ludwig '14
Fordham University	Rams	6	4	2	3	8	4	1	7	7	7	4	5	3	61	Elizabeth Tell '17 [1-13] Emma Huntress '16 [1-6] Dan Canziani '14 [7-13]
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1	5	3	2	9	3	4	10	6	6	3	3	8	63	Arthur Libby '17 [1-13] Christina Marcellari '16 [1-8, 13] James Lane '17 [9-12]
Webb Institute	Clippers	2	7	10	11	6	5	7	6	4	2	7	8	5	80	Cody Stansky '16 [1-13] Kurt Gavel '16 [1-9] Alexander Donlan '16 [10-13]
Queen's University	Gaels	5	6	7	12	14	12	8	1	1	5	6	4	4	85	John Machum '17 [1-4, 7-13] Will Jones '17 [5-6] Marie Boileau '16 [1-8, 13] Will Jones '17 [9-12]
University of Buffalo	Bulls	11	8	5	6	7	8	6	3	8	8	5	9	9	93	Luke Miller '15 Kishen Das '14
Colgate University	Raiders	9	11	9	5	2	2	10	11	11	11	8	6	6	101	Emily Bicks '16 Caroline Libby '14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	10	9	6	10	10	9	9	8	5	4	9	7	7	103	Samuel Watterson '16 [1-4, 9-13] James Gardner '16 [5-8] Danielle Ciufia '17 [1-4] Max Neubelt '17 [5-13]
Columbia University	Lions	7	2	13	8	3	7	5	5	9	9	10	10	OCS	106	Mary Margaret Meehan '15 [1-13] Nicolas Leeper '14 [1-10, 13] Josiah Hyatt '15 [11-12]
Syracuse University	Orange	8	10	8	7	4	11	14	13	15	13	15	15	14	147	Nicholas Pardini '16 [1-6] Patrick Stege '14 [7-13] Megan Peck '16 [1-6] Marisa Freedman '17 [7-13]
Hamilton College	Hamilton	13	14	11	14	12	13	11	12	10	10	11	11	12	154	Nathan Arndt '16 Ian Brown '17
University of Toronto	True Blue	14	12	12	9	15	15	12	9	12	12	12	12	10	156	Karl Kane-Collery '17 Macneal Darnley '17
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	16	15	16	16	13	14	16	15	14	DNS	13	13	11	190	Liza Gerwig '16 Thomas Barton '17
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	12	13	14	13	11	10	15	16	17	15	17	16	15	204 MRP	Ross Swerling '16 Ben Pacnas '16
Skidmore College	Skidmore	15	16	15	15	16	16	13	14	13	14	14	14	13	208 MRP	Andrew Lowy '15 Ella Sampou '17
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	16	DNF	16	DNF	DNS	242 MRP	Jake Mocci '17 Colton Currah '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
University of Buffalo Bulls	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Colgate University Raiders	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8
Columbia University Lions	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Cornell University Big Red	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10
Fordham University Rams	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Hamilton College Hamilton	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Queen's University Gaels	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
University of Rochester U. Rochester	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18
Skidmore College Skidmore	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2
Syracuse University Orange	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
University of Toronto True Blue	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4
Webb Institute Clippers	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
University of Buffalo Bulls	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Colgate University Raiders	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7
Columbia University Lions	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Cornell University Big Red	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9
Fordham University Rams	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Hamilton College Hamilton	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Queen's University Gaels	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
University of Rochester U. Rochester	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17
Skidmore College Skidmore	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1
Syracuse University Orange	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
University of Toronto True Blue	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3
Webb Institute Clippers	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Colgate University	Sara Klik '17 [1-13]	Anna Conway '17 [1-6, 9-13] Matthew Nelson '17 [7-8]
Raiders	Emily Bicks '16	Caroline Libby '14
Columbia University	Conor Cashel '14	Catherine Duggan '15
Lions	Mary Margaret Meehan '15 [1-13]	Nicolas Leeper '14 [1-10, 13] Josiah Hyatt '15 [11-12]
Cornell University	Duncan Howes '15 [1-13]	Constance Noziere '16 [1-2, 5-8] Claire Riedman '16 [3-4, 9-13]
Big Red	Matthew Schofield '17	Lindsey Ludwig '14
Fordham University	Alecsander Tayler '17 [1-13]	Madeleine Sims '16 [1-10] Emma Huntress '16 [11-13]
Rams	Elizabeth Tell '17 [1-13]	Emma Huntress '16 [1-6] Dan Canziani '14 [7-13]
Hamilton College	Jeremy Acosta '17	John Boudreau '14
Hamilton	Nathan Arndt '16	Ian Brown '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Louis Padnos '14 [1-13]	Julia Oak '14 [1-8, 13] Michael Deady '14 [9-12]
Statesmen	Stewart Draheim '16 [1-13]	Allison Aughtry '16 [1-8, 13] Alex Nugent '15 [9-12]
Queen's University	Matthew Sherar '17	James Morrin '14
Gaels	John Machum '17 [1-4, 7-13] Will Jones '17 [5-6]	Marie Boileau '16 [1-8, 13] Will Jones '17 [9-12]
Rochester Institute of Technology	Daniel Christiani '15	William Mccaffrey '18
Rochester	Ross Swerling '16	Ben Pacnas '16
SUNY Maritime College	Mike Carr '15	Whitney Taylor '16
Privateers	Arthur Libby '17 [1-13]	Christina Marcellari '16 [1-8, 13] James Lane '17 [9-12]
Skidmore College	Benjamin Goldlust '14	Matthew Sumner '15
Skidmore	Andrew Lowy '15	Ella Sampou '17
Syracuse University	Nicholas Woviotis '15 [1-13]	Patrick Stege '14 [1-8] Claire Alex '17 [9-12] Kelly Brust '16 [13]
Orange	Nicholas Pardini '16 [1-6] Patrick Stege '14 [7-13]	Megan Peck '16 [1-6] Marisa Freedman '17 [7-13]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Andrew Bates '15 [1-13]	Cara Halm '16 [1-10, 13] Peter Heinbockel '16 [11-12]
Mariners	Samuel Watterson '16 [1-4, 9-13] James Gardner '16 [5-8]	Danielle Ciufia '17 [1-4] Max Neubelt '17 [5-13]
U. S. Military Academy	Andrew Beckmann '15	Danielle Jordan '17
Black Knights	Jake Mocci '17	Colton Currah '16
University of Buffalo	Griffin Orr '15	Melissa Eiffert '14
Bulls	Luke Miller '15	Kishen Das '14
University of Rochester	Kelly Chang '17	Michael Danta '14
U. Rochester	Liza Gerwig '16	Thomas Barton '17
University of Toronto	Rachel Kozicz '16	Rudolph Guliani '16
True Blue	Karl Kane-Collery '17	Macneal Darnley '17
Webb Institute	Nathan Fast '14 [1-13]	James Codega '14 [1-6, 9-10] Ian Lawson '17 [7-8, 11-13]
Clippers	Cody Stansky '16 [1-13]	Kurt Gavel '16 [1-9] Alexander Donlan '16 [10-13]

Conditions — 09/28/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 5.8 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From SSE (150°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1025.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · S 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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