U. S. Military Academy '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.94 (fleet 1.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–11 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 0–11 against 0.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.07 | -1.93 | 0–11 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 2.08 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.3 | 0.74 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.2 | 0.92 |
| North Spring Qualifier | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.0 | 1.93 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| North Fall 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.3 | 0.30 |
| North Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.3 | 1.64 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.8 | 2.16 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.3 | 1.90 |
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.2 | 0.56 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.0 | 0.21 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North Fall #2 Qualifier | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 0.85 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.4 | 0.42 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Andrew Beckmann |  George Washington University |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
