Hap Moore Team Race

HostCoast Guard
Date11/08/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	11–3
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–3
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–5
4	Brown University	Bears	8–6
5	University of Vermont	Catamounts	7–4
6	Connecticut College	Camels	6–5
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	6–5
8	Georgetown University	Hoyas	5–6
9	Roger Williams University	Hawks	5–6
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	3–8
11	Columbia University	Lions	1–10
12	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,064 team race matches sailed before 2014-11-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 72 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.499 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.46 ± 0.38: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	5	10.79 school −0.23	Marek Zaleski / Emma Wheeler 3.55 7–2 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.81 6–3 Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 4.16 8–0 Michael Drumm / Kevin Coakley 3.11 5–3 Gram Slattery / Sydney Karnovsky 3.66 4–0 Gram Slattery / Emma Wheeler 3.49 3–1	61%	11–3 (79%)	+2.5
2	Boston College Eagles	6	10.52	Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris Henry Dumke / Katherine Downey 3.11 Maxwell Simmons / Riley Calhoun 3.41	57%	11–3 (79%)	+3.0
3	Tufts University Jumbos	1	11.10 school +0.06	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 4.19 Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.62 Scott Barbano / Caroline Atwood 3.19	70%	9–5 (64%)	−0.8
4	Brown University Bears	2	11.13 school +0.48	Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 3.42 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.84 Lucas Adams / Marina Cano 3.23 7–6 James Barry / Rachel Gutman 2.90 1–0	69%	8–6 (57%)	−1.7
5	University of Vermont Catamounts	4	10.49 school −0.15	Michael Zonnenberg / Sydney Connor 3.44 Nate Jermain / Travis Bobley 3.46 Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 3.58	61%	7–4 (64%)	+0.3
6	Connecticut College Camels	9	9.71 school −0.19	Jordan Bothwick / Lea Bushnell 3.42 Bryce Kopp / Victoria Allen 3.51 Hugh Macgillivray / Kim Bolick	43%	6–5 (55%)	+1.2
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	10	9.40 school −0.34, home +0.32	Nikole Barnes / Robert Turley 3.82 Dylan Finneran / Hannah Herring 2.48 Kayla Ellis / Andrew Britton	38%	6–5 (55%)	+1.8
8	Georgetown University Hoyas	7	10.25	Sean Golden / Emily Fung 3.93 Aj Reiter / Emily Ito 3.32 Jack Marshall / Brian Poirier 3–1 Jack Gerli / Maggie Kelly 2.91 1–3 Massimo Mazzolini / Elizabeth Mullarney 2.70 1–2	54%	5–6 (45%)	−0.9
9	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	10.93	Connor Corgard / Wendy Reuss 3.98 Henry Vogel / Breanne Baldino 3.62 Mackenzie Bryan / Abby Preston 3.46 2–4 Dirk Johnson / Abby Preston 3.06 3–2	69%	5–6 (45%)	−2.6
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8	10.16 school +0.58	Thomas Galster / Kaitlyn Noreen 2.88 3–6 Edmund Cooper / Allison Shane 3.56 2–7 Kyle Burgess / Grace Mcdougall 2.89 1–7 Bradley Adam / Grace Mcdougall 3.32 2–1 Bradley Adam / Allison Shane 3.49 1–1 Bradley Adam / Kaitlyn Noreen 3.43 0–2	54%	3–8 (27%)	−2.9
11	Columbia University Lions	12	2.31 school +0.17	Michael Fagundo / Anna Quincy Haley Collins / Louisa Sainz De La Maza Paolo Bertolotti / Kelsey Burns 1.10 1–6 Adam Devita / Kelsey Burns 0–4	4%	1–10 (9%)	+0.5
12	U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	11	2.44	Andrew Beckmann / Timothy Lynch Albert Biddle / Brian Bui Michael Danko / Ruby Garcia	5%	0–11 (0%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
11	Columbia University	2.31	5.16	1–10	0.5	+2.85	0.9	48%
2	Boston College	10.52	11.71	11–3	8.0	+1.19	2.5	6%
1	Harvard University	10.79	11.81	11–3	8.5	+1.02	1.8	11%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.40	10.39	6–5	4.2	+0.98	1.4	14%
6	Connecticut College	9.71	10.35	6–5	4.8	+0.64	0.6	28%
5	University of Vermont	10.49	10.61	7–4	6.7	+0.13	0.0	57%
3	Tufts University	11.10	10.81	9–5	9.8	−0.29	0.2	79%
8	Georgetown University	10.25	9.77	5–6	5.9	−0.48	0.3	84%
4	Brown University	11.13	10.52	8–6	9.7	−0.61	0.7	91%
9	Roger Williams University	10.93	9.61	5–6	7.6	−1.31	2.4	99%
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.16	8.30	3–8	5.9	−1.86	3.3	99%
12	U. S. Military Academy	2.44	-0.56	0–11	0.5	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Paolo Bertolotti	Columbia University	1.10	4.22	1–6	0.5	+3.12	0.9	48%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	4.16	7.16	8–0	5.9	≥+3.00	3.7	6%
Haley Collins	Columbia University	0.00	2.85	1–10	0.5	+2.85	0.9	48%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.66	5.33	7–1	5.2	+1.66	2.0	12%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	2.71	4.23	3–1	1.9	+1.52	1.2	22%
Henry Dumke	Boston College	3.11	4.30	11–3	8.0	+1.19	2.5	6%
Maxwell Simmons	Boston College	3.41	4.60	11–3	8.0	+1.19	2.5	6%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.82	4.80	6–5	4.2	+0.98	1.4	14%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.48	3.46	6–5	4.2	+0.98	1.4	14%
Kayla Ellis	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.94	3.92	6–5	4.2	+0.98	1.4	14%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.81	4.55	6–3	4.5	+0.74	0.8	25%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.55	4.28	7–2	5.9	+0.73	0.6	32%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	3.42	4.06	6–5	4.8	+0.64	0.6	28%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.51	4.15	6–5	4.8	+0.64	0.6	28%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.11	3.67	5–3	4.0	+0.56	0.4	36%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.44	3.56	7–4	6.7	+0.13	0.0	57%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.46	3.59	7–4	6.7	+0.13	0.0	57%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.58	3.70	7–4	6.7	+0.13	0.0	57%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	4.19	3.90	9–5	9.8	−0.29	0.2	79%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.62	3.33	9–5	9.8	−0.29	0.2	79%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.19	2.91	9–5	9.8	−0.29	0.2	79%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.93	3.45	5–6	5.9	−0.48	0.3	84%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.32	2.83	5–6	5.9	−0.48	0.3	84%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.42	2.81	8–6	9.7	−0.61	0.7	91%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.23	2.62	7–6	8.7	−0.61	0.7	91%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.32	2.07	3–4	4.3	−1.25	1.1	96%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.98	2.67	5–6	7.6	−1.31	2.4	99%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.62	2.31	5–6	7.6	−1.31	2.4	99%
Jack Gerli	Georgetown University	2.91	1.48	1–3	2.2	−1.43	1.2	97%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.56	1.94	2–7	4.3	−1.62	2.3	99%
Thomas Galster	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.88	1.22	3–6	5.2	−1.66	2.3	99%
Andrew Beckmann	U. S. Military Academy	1.07	-1.93	0–11	0.5	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%
Albert Biddle	U. S. Military Academy	-0.10	-3.10	0–11	0.5	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%
Michael Danko	U. S. Military Academy	0.69	-2.31	0–11	0.5	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%
Adam Devita	Columbia University	1.17	-1.83	0–4	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%
Massimo Mazzolini	Georgetown University	2.70	-1.25	1–2	1.8	−3.95	1.4	>99%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.89	-1.79	1–7	3.9	−4.68	5.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Columbia University	100%
1	2	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
1	3	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	18%	upset
1	4	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	5	Tufts University	Boston College	65%
1	6	University of Vermont	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Columbia University	100%
1	8	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	36%	upset
1	9	Harvard University	Brown University	56%
1	10	Boston College	Roger Williams University	35%	upset
1	11	University of Vermont	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
1	12	Tufts University	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	13	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	58%
1	14	Brown University	Columbia University	100%
1	15	Boston College	Georgetown University	61%
1	16	University of Vermont	Harvard University	54%
1	17	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	59%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	19	Brown University	Connecticut College	81%
1	20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	25%	upset
1	21	University of Vermont	Columbia University	100%
1	22	Georgetown University	Tufts University	32%	upset
1	23	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	58%
1	24	Roger Williams University	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	25	Boston College	Brown University	34%	upset
1	26	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	68%
1	27	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	16%	upset
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Columbia University	100%
1	29	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
1	30	Harvard University	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	31	Boston College	University of Vermont	50%
1	32	Brown University	Tufts University	52%
1	33	Connecticut College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	44%	upset
1	34	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
1	35	Harvard University	Columbia University	100%
1	36	Georgetown University	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	37	Tufts University	University of Vermont	64%
1	38	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
1	39	Brown University	Roger Williams University	62%
1	40	Harvard University	Connecticut College	83%
1	41	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Georgetown University	27%	upset
1	42	Columbia University	U. S. Military Academy	47%	upset
1	43	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
1	44	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	54%
1	45	Harvard University	Boston College	47%	upset
1	46	Georgetown University	Brown University	30%	upset
1	47	Connecticut College	Columbia University	100%
1	48	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	49	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
1	50	Tufts University	Harvard University	68%
1	51	University of Vermont	Georgetown University	59%
1	52	Boston College	Columbia University	100%
1	53	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	54	Connecticut College	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	55	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
1	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	48%	upset
1	57	Tufts University	Columbia University	100%
1	58	University of Vermont	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
1	59	Boston College	Connecticut College	68%
1	60	Brown University	U. S. Military Academy	100%
1	61	Harvard University	Georgetown University	68%
1	62	Roger Williams University	Columbia University	100%
1	63	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	39%	upset
1	64	Tufts University	Connecticut College	79%
1	65	Brown University	University of Vermont	66%
1	66	Boston College	U. S. Military Academy	100%
4	67	Boston College	Brown University	34%	upset
4	68	Harvard University	Tufts University	32%	upset
4	69	Boston College	Tufts University	37%	upset
4	70	Harvard University	Brown University	52%
4	71	Tufts University	Brown University	47%	upset
4	72	Boston College	Harvard University	53%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Jumbos	Bears	Catamounts	Camels	Bears	Hoyas	Hawks	Seahawks	Lions	Knights
Harvard University Crimson	9–2	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–3	W	W	✕	L	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	7–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–5	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–6	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Columbia University Lions	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Jumbos	Bears
Harvard University Crimson	2–1	✕	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Lions	3-5-6
2	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
3	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
5	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
6	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Black Knights	3-4-6
7	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Lions	4-5-6
8	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
9	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
10	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
11	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
12	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
13	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
14	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Lions	4-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
16	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
17	Jumbos	1-5-6	def.	Hawks	2-3-4 DSQ
18	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
20	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
21	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Lions	4-5-6
22	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
23	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
24	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
26	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Lions	4-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
30	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
31	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
32	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
33	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
34	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
35	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Lions	3-5-6
36	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
37	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
38	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
40	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
41	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
42	Lions	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
44	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
45	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
47	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Lions	3-4-6
48	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
49	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
50	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
51	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
52	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Lions	4-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
54	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
55	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Lions	3-5-6
58	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
59	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
61	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
62	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Lions	4-5-6
63	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
64	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
66	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Black Knights	4-5-6
67	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
68	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
69	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
70	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
71	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
72	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Marek Zaleski '16 Michael Drumm '15	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Jacob Bradt '16 Emma Wheeler '17 Kevin Coakley '18
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Henry Dumke '17 Maxwell Simmons '17	Allison Ferraris '17 Katherine Downey '16 Riley Calhoun '16
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Scott Barbano '17	Sam Madden '15 Jamie Maffeo '15 Caroline Atwood '16
Brown University	Bears	James Barry '16 Lucas Adams '15 Nathan Allman '16 Pearson Potts '16	Rachel Gutman '17 Marina Cano '17 Ragna Eide '16 Lydia Whiteford '15
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Lauren Jones '15 Sydney Connor '18 Travis Bobley '17
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Jordan Bothwick '15	Victoria Allen '16 Kim Bolick '15 Lea Bushnell '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Dylan Finneran '15 Kayla Ellis '16 Nikole Barnes '17	Hannah Herring '18 Andrew Britton '16 Robert Turley '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Jack Gerli '17 Jack Marshall '18 Massimo Mazzolini '17 Sean Golden '16	Emily Ito '19 Maggie Kelly '17 Brian Poirier '17 Elizabeth Mullarney '16 Emily Fung '17
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Dirk Johnson '18 Henry Vogel '15 Mackenzie Bryan '18	Wendy Reuss '15 Abby Preston '15 Breanne Baldino '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Edmund Cooper '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Thomas Galster '15	Allison Shane '15 Grace Mcdougall '16 Kaitlyn Noreen '16
Columbia University	Lions	Adam Devita '18 Haley Collins '18 Michael Fagundo '18 Paolo Bertolotti '16	Kelsey Burns '16 Louisa Sainz De La Maza '18 Anna Quincy '15
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	Albert Biddle '17 Andrew Beckmann '15 Michael Danko '17	Brian Bui '16 Timothy Lynch '16 Ruby Garcia '18

Conditions — 11/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 45°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 7.4 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From WSW (251°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1014.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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