Boston College '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 92–30 (75%) as crew 26–19 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 4 | 1–3 | 21–10 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 19–2 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 18–3 | 5–9 |
| Fall 2014 | 2 | 19–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 2 | 20–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (165 matches) the record is 116–49 against 107.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+8.4). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.85 | 4.03 | 7–2 | 6.8 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2017-04-08 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.90 | 2.99 | 9–6 | 11.7 | −0.91 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.89 | 0.64 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −3.25 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | crew | 3.89 | 3.88 | 3–2 | 3.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.15 | 4.77 | 19–2 | 14.5 | +1.62 | 4.5 | 2% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.30 | 4.00 | 9–5 | 7.1 | +0.69 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 4.53 | 9–2 | 7.0 | +1.22 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 3.43 | 2.55 | 5–9 | 7.5 | −0.88 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2015-03-28 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 3.10 | 3.98 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +0.88 | 0.6 | 37% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.11 | 4.30 | 11–3 | 8.0 | +1.19 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 3.12 | 8–3 | 7.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.86 | 3.50 | 6–3 | 4.9 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.56 | 2.45 | 11–4 | 11.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.47 | 2.94 | 9–4 | 8.0 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 23 | 61% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 25 | 68% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Graham Hall | Crew | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 3.56 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 3.3 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.2 | 2.83 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.6 | 3.62 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 5.58 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.0 | 3.05 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.9 | 3.71 |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 90% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | 3.28 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.7 | 2.10 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.3 | 3.26 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.4 | 3.22 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 2.20 |
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.8 | 3.26 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.5 | 2.69 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.8 | 3.04 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 3.83 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.8 | 2.58 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 3.7 | 3.35 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 3.53 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 3.06 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 3.10 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.2 | 2.67 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 7.2 | 2.98 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.13 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.0 | 2.52 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
