34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta

HostMIT
Date04/04/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/NC Firefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–2
2	Harvard University	Crimson	12–3
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–4
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–5
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–5
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	9–6
7	University of Vermont	Catamounts	8–7
8	Brown University	Bears	8–7
9	Connecticut College	Camels	7–8
10	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–9
11	Boston College	Eagles	6–9
12	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	5–10
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–10
14	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–11
15	Eckerd College	Tritons	3–12
16	Boston University	Terriers	3–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,258 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 84 of 120 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.593 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.20 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.76 school +0.19	Malcolm Lamphere / Charlotte Belling 3.33 Ian Barrows / Katherine Gaumond 4.68 Graham Landy / Christopher Champa 4.45	88%	13–2 (87%)	−0.2
2	Harvard University Crimson	3	11.20 school −0.38	Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 4.25 8–2 Marek Zaleski / Sydney Karnovsky 3.81 7–2 Gram Slattery / Kevin Coakley 3.63 4–0 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.84 3–1 Gram Slattery / Michael Drumm 3.69 2–1 Andrew Mollerus / Jacob Bradt 3.98 2–1 Nick Sertl / Brian Drumm 3.15 2–0 Gram Slattery / Jacob Bradt 3.92 2–0 Gram Slattery / Julia Lord 3.74 2–0 Gram Slattery / Brian Drumm 3.69 1–1 Michael Drumm / Kevin Coakley 3.46 1–0 Marek Zaleski / Michael Drumm 3.73 1–0 Brian Drumm / Matthew Mollerus 3.95 1–0 Andrew Mollerus / Michael Drumm 3.76 0–1	62%	12–3 (80%)	+2.6
3	Stanford University Cardinal	2	11.94 school +0.56	Antoine Screve / John Cannistraro 4.06 Hans Henken / Nicolette Obel 3.82 Axel Sly / Daniel Ron 3.42 11–3 Axel Sly / Cally Tullo 3.44 0–1	76%	11–4 (73%)	−0.3
4	Tufts University Jumbos	4	11.08 school +0.10	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Aaron Klein 3.66 8–4 Dan Nickerson / Sam Madden 3.59 8–4 Duncan Swain / Alexander Tong 3.55 8–4 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Alexander Tong 3.91 2–1 Dan Nickerson / Caitlin Durand 3.38 2–1 Duncan Swain / Sam Madden 3.71 2–1	62%	10–5 (67%)	+0.7
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	11	10.25 school −0.05	Charles Lalumiere / Abigail Rohman 3.53 Ian Storck / Lizzie Guynn 3.12 7–3 Scott Houck / Nathaniel Greason 3.61 7–2 Scott Houck / Lizzie Guynn 3.49 3–2 Ian Storck / Madeleine Cooney 3.17 3–2 Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 3.94 0–1	41%	10–5 (67%)	+3.9
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	6	10.97 school +0.08	William Macdonald / James Kennedy 4.08 5–6 Connor Corgard / Riley Eger 3.59 4–3 Henry Vogel / James Bartlein 3.37 4–3 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.79 3–1 Mackenzie Bryan / Riley Eger 3.18 2–2 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.52 2–1 Mackenzie Bryan / James Bartlein 3.24 1–2 Mackenzie Bryan / Breanne Baldino 3.37 2–0 Mackenzie Bryan / James Kennedy 3.19 1–0 William Macdonald / Riley Eger 4.11 1–0 Henry Vogel / Breanne Baldino 3.49 1–0 Henry Vogel / Abby Preston 3.51 1–0	58%	9–6 (60%)	+0.3
7	University of Vermont Catamounts	7	10.97 school +0.06	Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.92 6–5 Nate Jermain / Megan Mackinnon 3.54 6–5 Michael Booker / Sydney Connor 3.52 6–5 Michael Booker / Brittney Manning 3.44 2–2 Michael Zonnenberg / Mike Kanare 3.47 2–2 Nate Jermain / Travis Bobley 3.62 2–2	57%	8–7 (53%)	−0.6
8	Brown University Bears	5	11.16 school +0.35	Lucas Adams / Jessica O'Dell 3.59 6–6 Nathan Allman / Henry Sharpe 3.45 5–3 James Barry / Ragna Eide 3.29 3–4 Pearson Potts / Henry Sharpe 3.76 3–3 Pearson Potts / Ragna Eide 3.91 3–3 Lucas Adams / Marina Cano 3.55 2–1 Pearson Potts / Jessica O'Dell 3.80 2–1	62%	8–7 (53%)	−1.3
9	Connecticut College Camels	14	9.56 school −0.12	Hugh Macgillivray / Albert Rodiger 2.81 6–5 Bryce Kopp / Walter Florio 3.33 5–5 Jordan Bothwick / Lea Bushnell 3.41 2–4 Jordan Bothwick / Victoria Allen 3.36 3–2 Jordan Bothwick / Walter Florio 3.11 2–2 Bryce Kopp / Cooper Nefsky 3.38 2–2 Hugh Macgillivray / Kim Bolick 3.15 1–2 Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 3.00 0–1 Bryce Kopp / Eliza Garry 3.36 0–1	28%	7–8 (47%)	+2.8
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10	10.61 school +0.39	Jack Mcguire / Charlotte Williamson 3.62 William Hawk / Julia Rew 2.98 Michael Croteau / Dana Bloch 3.53 4–8 Michael Croteau / Sydney Avitia-Jacques 3.57 2–1	51%	6–9 (40%)	−1.7
11	Boston College Eagles	8	10.85 school +0.11	Harry Koeppel / Lily Mcgrath 3.19 Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris 4.08 Maxwell Simmons / Henry Dumke 3.43 5–9 Maxwell Simmons / Kaitlin Driscoll 3.38 1–0	54%	6–9 (40%)	−2.1
12	University of Wisconsin Badgers	15	9.47 school +0.09	Connor Trepton / Katie Hall 3.02 George Kutschenreuter / Erik Elliott 3.30 Laura Wefer / Jennifer Burke 3.01 3–7 Laura Wefer / Benjamin Reiland 2.92 2–3	26%	5–10 (33%)	+1.0
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9	10.77 school −0.14, home +0.31	Cutter O'Connell / Christopher Ford 3.40 David Larson / Jordan Ladd 3.67 Alexander Stewart / Ty Ingram 3.33 5–8 Alexander Stewart / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.69 0–2	54%	5–10 (33%)	−3.1
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	13	9.56 school +0.29	Caleb Armstrong / Matthew Gibbs 3.19 Samuel Cushing / Jack Hurley 2.82 Matthew Coughlin / Robert Piispanen 3.00 4–10 Matthew Coughlin / Kaitlyn Norton 3.40 0–1	29%	4–11 (27%)	−0.3
15	Eckerd College Tritons	16	8.91 school −0.21	Jason D'Agostino / Ann Williamson 3.27 Timothy Siemers / Jessica Resnick 3.05 Andrew Schoene / Shaughnessy Lindquist 2.74	17%	3–12 (20%)	+0.4
16	Boston University Terriers	12	9.80	Michael Saldi / Lindsey Kennett 2.78 Ryan Astwood / Kayla Lynch 3.78 Brendan Cook / Reed Lorimer 3.15	34%	3–12 (20%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Dartmouth College	10.25	11.51	10–5	6.1	+1.26	3.5	3%
2	Harvard University	11.20	12.24	12–3	9.4	+1.04	1.9	10%
9	Connecticut College	9.56	10.51	7–8	4.2	+0.94	2.0	8%
12	University of Wisconsin	9.47	9.86	5–10	4.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
4	Tufts University	11.08	11.31	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
15	Eckerd College	8.91	9.10	3–12	2.6	+0.18	0.1	51%
6	Roger Williams University	10.97	11.07	9–6	8.7	+0.10	0.0	55%
14	University of Rhode Island	9.56	9.45	4–11	4.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
1	Yale University	12.76	12.64	13–2	13.2	−0.12	0.0	73%
3	Stanford University	11.94	11.79	11–4	11.4	−0.14	0.0	72%
7	University of Vermont	10.97	10.77	8–7	8.6	−0.20	0.1	74%
8	Brown University	11.16	10.73	8–7	9.3	−0.43	0.4	85%
10	Bowdoin College	10.61	10.05	6–9	7.7	−0.55	0.7	90%
11	Boston College	10.85	10.15	6–9	8.1	−0.69	1.1	93%
16	Boston University	9.80	8.97	3–12	5.0	−0.83	1.2	94%
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.77	9.73	5–10	8.1	−1.04	2.3	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.61	5.06	10–4	5.9	+1.45	4.1	2%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.63	5.00	11–2	8.2	+1.37	2.5	7%
Ian Storck	Dartmouth College	3.12	4.38	10–5	6.1	+1.26	3.5	3%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.53	4.79	10–5	6.1	+1.26	3.5	3%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	4.25	5.46	9–2	6.8	+1.22	1.8	12%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	3.41	4.35	7–8	4.2	+0.94	2.0	8%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.33	4.27	7–8	4.2	+0.94	2.0	8%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.81	4.60	8–2	6.7	+0.79	0.7	28%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.59	4.11	7–4	5.8	+0.53	0.5	32%
Connor Trepton	University of Wisconsin	3.02	3.41	5–10	4.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
George Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	3.30	3.70	5–10	4.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
Laura Wefer	University of Wisconsin	3.01	3.40	5–10	4.0	+0.39	0.3	35%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.37	3.75	8–4	7.1	+0.39	0.3	40%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.45	3.76	5–3	4.5	+0.31	0.1	51%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.84	4.14	5–3	4.5	+0.30	0.1	51%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.66	3.89	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.59	3.83	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.55	3.78	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.27	3.45	3–12	2.6	+0.18	0.1	51%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	3.05	3.24	3–12	2.6	+0.18	0.1	51%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	2.74	2.92	3–12	2.6	+0.18	0.1	51%
Matthew Coughlin	University of Rhode Island	3.00	2.89	4–11	4.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
Samuel Cushing	University of Rhode Island	2.82	2.71	4–11	4.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.68	4.56	13–2	13.2	−0.12	0.0	73%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.45	4.33	13–2	13.2	−0.12	0.0	73%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	4.06	3.92	11–4	11.4	−0.14	0.0	72%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.82	3.67	11–4	11.4	−0.14	0.0	72%
Axel Sly	Stanford University	3.42	3.28	11–4	11.4	−0.14	0.0	72%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.92	3.72	8–7	8.6	−0.20	0.1	74%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.54	3.34	8–7	8.6	−0.20	0.1	74%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.52	3.32	8–7	8.6	−0.20	0.1	74%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.08	3.68	6–6	7.0	−0.40	0.3	83%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.59	3.16	8–7	9.3	−0.43	0.4	85%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	3.53	2.98	6–9	7.7	−0.55	0.7	90%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.62	3.07	6–9	7.7	−0.55	0.7	90%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	2.98	2.43	6–9	7.7	−0.55	0.7	90%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.19	2.49	6–9	8.1	−0.69	1.1	93%
Maxwell Simmons	Boston College	3.43	2.74	6–9	8.1	−0.69	1.1	93%
Michael Saldi	Boston University	2.78	1.95	3–12	5.0	−0.83	1.2	94%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.78	2.95	3–12	5.0	−0.83	1.2	94%
Brendan Cook	Boston University	3.15	2.32	3–12	5.0	−0.83	1.2	94%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.33	2.29	5–10	8.1	−1.04	2.3	98%
David Larson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.67	2.63	5–10	8.1	−1.04	2.3	98%
James Barry	Brown University	3.29	2.08	3–4	4.8	−1.21	1.6	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Brown University	58%
1	2	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	84%
1	3	University of Wisconsin	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	17%	upset
1	4	Yale University	Roger Williams University	76%
1	5	Connecticut College	Boston University	37%	upset
1	6	Boston College	Dartmouth College	65%
1	7	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	86%
1	8	Stanford University	University of Vermont	69%
1	9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	40%	upset
1	10	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	42%	upset
1	11	Harvard University	University of Wisconsin	88%
1	12	Yale University	Eckerd College	98%
1	13	Tufts University	Boston University	80%
1	14	Stanford University	Boston College	75%
1	15	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	53%
1	16	University of Vermont	Dartmouth College	71%
1	17	Brown University	University of Wisconsin	84%
1	18	Yale University	Bowdoin College	90%
1	19	Harvard University	Boston University	80%
1	20	Eckerd College	Boston College	13%	upset
1	21	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	21%	upset
1	22	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	38%	upset
1	23	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	24	University of Vermont	Bowdoin College	51%
1	25	Harvard University	Tufts University	38%	upset
1	26	Stanford University	Eckerd College	95%
1	27	University of Wisconsin	Boston University	41%	upset
1	28	Yale University	Boston College	87%
1	29	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	23%	upset
1	30	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	59%
1	31	Brown University	Connecticut College	81%
1	32	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	41%	upset
1	33	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	83%
1	34	Yale University	Stanford University	70%
1	35	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	73%
1	36	University of Vermont	Eckerd College	86%
1	37	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	72%
1	38	Boston College	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
1	39	Tufts University	Brown University	49%	upset
1	40	Bowdoin College	Stanford University	21%	upset
1	41	University of Rhode Island	University of Wisconsin	51%
1	42	Yale University	University of Vermont	88%
1	43	Harvard University	Connecticut College	83%
1	44	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	79%
1	45	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	58%
1	46	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	32%	upset
1	47	Boston University	Brown University	22%	upset
1	48	Bowdoin College	Boston College	45%	upset
1	49	Connecticut College	University of Wisconsin	51%
1	50	Dartmouth College	Yale University	7%	upset
1	51	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	65%
1	52	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	82%
1	53	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	56%
1	54	University of Vermont	Boston College	56%
1	55	Connecticut College	Tufts University	18%	upset
1	56	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	80%
1	57	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	65%
1	58	Yale University	Brown University	81%
1	59	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	86%
1	60	Roger Williams University	Boston University	72%
1	61	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	18%	upset
1	62	Stanford University	Connecticut College	91%
1	63	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	61%
1	64	University of Wisconsin	Boston College	21%	upset
1	65	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	77%
1	66	Brown University	Eckerd College	92%
1	67	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	68	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
1	69	Boston University	Bowdoin College	31%	upset
1	70	Tufts University	Boston College	56%
1	71	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	19%	upset
1	72	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	92%
1	73	Harvard University	Eckerd College	90%
1	74	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	75	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	54%
1	76	Brown University	Boston College	58%
1	77	Dartmouth College	Boston University	59%
1	78	University of Vermont	University of Wisconsin	83%
1	79	Stanford University	Tufts University	69%
1	80	Yale University	Connecticut College	96%
1	81	Eckerd College	University of Rhode Island	34%	upset
1	82	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	52%
1	83	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	35%	upset
1	84	University of Vermont	Boston University	78%
1	85	Brown University	Stanford University	31%	upset
1	86	Connecticut College	Boston College	26%	upset
1	87	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	96%
1	88	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	73%
1	89	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	41%	upset
1	90	Eckerd College	Boston University	29%	upset
1	91	Harvard University	University of Vermont	59%
1	92	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	60%
1	93	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	47%	upset
1	94	Brown University	Bowdoin College	66%
1	95	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
1	96	University of Wisconsin	Roger Williams University	22%	upset
1	97	Stanford University	Harvard University	63%
1	98	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	65%
1	99	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
1	100	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	74%
1	101	Boston College	Boston University	73%
1	102	University of Wisconsin	Eckerd College	65%
1	103	Brown University	Roger Williams University	56%
1	104	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	70%
1	105	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
1	106	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	91%
1	107	Boston College	Harvard University	44%	upset
1	108	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	67%
1	109	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	67%
1	110	University of Vermont	Brown University	44%	upset
1	111	Yale University	Boston University	95%
1	112	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	113	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	77%
1	114	Tufts University	Eckerd College	90%
1	115	Bowdoin College	University of Wisconsin	75%
1	116	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	80%
1	117	Dartmouth College	Brown University	26%	upset
1	118	Harvard University	Yale University	20%	upset
1	119	Stanford University	Boston University	89%
1	120	Tufts University	University of Vermont	51%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Cardinal	Jumbos	Green	Hawks	Catamounts	Bears	Camels	Bears	Eagles	Badgers	Engineers	Rams	Tritons	Terriers
Yale University Bulldogs	13–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	12–3	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	11–4	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	10–5	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	10–5	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	9–6	L	W	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	L	L	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	8–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–7	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	L
Connecticut College Camels	7–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–9	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	L
Boston College Eagles	6–9	L	W	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	W	W	✕	L	L
Eckerd College Tritons	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
2	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
3	Badgers	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
4	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
5	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6 DNF
6	Eagles	2-4-5	def.	Big Green	1-3-6 OCS
7	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
8	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
9	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
10	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
11	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-6 DNS	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
13	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
15	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
16	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
17	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
19	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
20	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
21	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
22	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6 DNF
23	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6 DNF,DNF
24	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
25	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
27	Badgers	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6 DNF
28	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
29	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
30	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
31	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
32	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
33	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
34	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
35	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
36	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
37	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
38	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6 DSQ
39	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
40	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
41	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
42	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
43	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
44	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
45	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
46	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
47	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
48	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
49	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
50	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6 DSQ
51	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
52	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
53	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
54	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
55	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
56	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
57	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
59	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
60	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
61	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
62	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
64	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
65	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
66	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
67	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
68	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
69	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
70	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
71	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
72	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Badgers	2-3-6
73	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
74	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
75	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
76	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
77	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
78	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Badgers	2-4-6
79	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
80	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
81	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
82	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
83	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
84	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
85	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
86	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
87	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
88	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
89	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
90	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
91	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
92	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
93	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
94	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
95	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
96	Badgers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
97	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
98	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
99	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
100	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
101	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
102	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
103	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
104	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
105	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
106	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6 DNF
107	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
108	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
109	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
110	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
111	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
112	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
113	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
114	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
115	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
116	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
117	Big Green	1-2-6 DSQ	def.	Bears	3-4-5 DSQ
118	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
119	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
120	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18	Christopher Champa '18 Katherine Gaumond '15 Charlotte Belling '16
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Marek Zaleski '16 Michael Drumm '15 Nick Sertl '18	Jacob Bradt '16 Sydney Karnovsky '16 Michael Drumm '15 Matthew Mollerus '17 Kevin Coakley '18 Brian Drumm '15 Julia Lord '17
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Axel Sly '16 Hans Henken '15	John Cannistraro '17 Daniel Ron '17 Cally Tullo '17 Nicolette Obel '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15	Aaron Klein '18 Alexander Tong '17 Sam Madden '15 Caitlin Durand '15
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Deirdre Lambert '15 Ian Storck '15 Scott Houck '15	Abigail Rohman '16 Nathaniel Greason '17 Lizzie Guynn '16 Madeleine Cooney '17
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 Mackenzie Bryan '18 William Macdonald '15	Riley Eger '17 Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 James Bartlein '15 Breanne Baldino '16 James Kennedy '17
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Sydney Connor '18 Brittney Manning '18 Bridget Murphy '15 Mike Kanare '16 Megan Mackinnon '17 Travis Bobley '17
Brown University	Bears	James Barry '16 Lucas Adams '15 Nathan Allman '16 Pearson Potts '16	Ragna Eide '16 Marina Cano '17 Jessica O'Dell '17 Henry Sharpe '17
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Jordan Bothwick '15	Walter Florio '18 Cooper Nefsky '17 Eliza Garry '17 Albert Rodiger '18 Kim Bolick '15 Lea Bushnell '15 Victoria Allen '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Michael Croteau '15 William Hawk '18	Charlotte Williamson '15 Dana Bloch '17 Sydney Avitia-Jacques '18 Julia Rew '16
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Harry Koeppel '17 Maxwell Simmons '17	Allison Ferraris '17 Lily Mcgrath '18 Henry Dumke '17 Kaitlin Driscoll '16
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Connor Trepton '15 George Kutschenreuter '15 Laura Wefer '16	Katie Hall '16 Erik Elliott '17 Benjamin Reiland '15 Jennifer Burke '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 David Larson '16	Ty Ingram '18 Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Christopher Ford '16 Jordan Ladd '17
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Caleb Armstrong '16 Matthew Coughlin '16 Samuel Cushing '15	Matthew Gibbs '17 Robert Piispanen '16 Kaitlyn Norton '15 Jack Hurley '18
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Timothy Siemers '16	Shaughnessy Lindquist '16 Ann Williamson '15 Jessica Resnick '16
Boston University	Terriers	Brendan Cook '16 Michael Saldi '15 Ryan Astwood '16	Reed Lorimer '18 Lindsey Kennett '15 Kayla Lynch '16

Conditions — 04/04/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1003.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

15.0 kn

avg · max 18.8 kn

Gusts to 38.1 kn

From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1003.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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