Dartmouth College '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 60.84 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.105 rating points from 50 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.51 (fleet 3.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 44–49 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 19–25 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 25–24 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (93 matches) the record is 44–49 against 46.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.31 | 1.90 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −1.42 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.12 | 4.38 | 10–5 | 6.1 | +1.26 | 3.5 | 3% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 4.21 | 4–8 | 2.1 | +1.02 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 2.49 | 4–9 | 5.6 | −0.72 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.87 | 3.25 | 12–5 | 10.8 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 1.27 | 5–13 | 11.1 | −1.70 | 7.3 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.74 | 2.33 | 8–6 | 8.8 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Crew | A | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 4.9 | 4.20 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 3.1 | — |
| Olympians Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 15 | 2.1 | — |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.5 | 3.42 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.7 | 1.91 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 5.7 | 3.33 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 5.0 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 5.7 | 3.76 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | A | 10 | 5.8 | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.6 | 3.61 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.9 | 3.00 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.7 | 3.07 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.7 | 3.13 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | A | 3 | 5.3 | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.7 | 2.72 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.8 | 2.09 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 1.71 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.6 | 2.69 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 2.06 |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 19 | 9.8 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 5.6 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.5 | 0.62 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
