Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/21/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	16–2
2	Boston College	Eagles	15–3
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	13–5
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	13–5
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas	13–5
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–7
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–9
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–11
9	Brown University	Bears	6–9
10	Roger Williams University	Hawks	6–9
11	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–9
12	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–9
13	Fordham University	Rams	5–10
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3–12
15	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	2–13
16	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,579 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 104 of 132 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.453 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.18 ± 0.19: a typical event, more orderly than 63% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	12.62 school +0.17	Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll 4.04 Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.41 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.95 14–2 Ryan Davidson / Rebekah Schiff 4.01 2–0	76%	16–2 (89%)	+2.4
2	Boston College Eagles	2	12.54 school +0.06	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 4.18 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.19 Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris 4.10 13–3 Charles Sinks / Christopher Dwyer 3.98 2–0	74%	15–3 (83%)	+1.6
3	Stanford University Cardinal	4	12.13 school +0.35	Will La Dow / Samantha Steele 3.71 Hans Henken / Nicolette Obel 3.79 Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.23	65%	13–5 (72%)	+1.3
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	12.15 school +0.68	Edmund Cooper / Allison Shane 3.66 Alexander Curtiss / Mariah Leffingwell 4.04 Jacob La Dow / Shelby Jacobs 3.75	66%	13–5 (72%)	+1.1
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	6	11.77 school −0.12	Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 4.19 Aj Reiter / Elizabeth Mullarney 3.84 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.83	62%	13–5 (72%)	+1.9
6	Tufts University Jumbos	8	11.52 school +0.17	Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.59 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 4.14 9–7 Duncan Swain / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.57 9–7 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Alexander Tong 3.91 2–0 Duncan Swain / Sam Madden 3.77 2–0	58%	11–7 (61%)	+0.6
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	11.59 home +0.29	Mary Hall / Connor Hendi 3.80 9–6 Michael Popp / Alexandra Asuncion 3.86 9–6 Patrick Snow / Emma Ferris 3.68 9–6 Mary Hall / Peter Hogan 3.45 0–3 Michael Popp / Charles Peck 3.73 0–3 Patrick Snow / Aaron Hull 3.69 0–3	59%	9–9 (50%)	−1.6
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	11	10.82 school −0.22	Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 4.04 6–9 Charles Lalumiere / Abigail Rohman 3.77 4–10 Ian Storck / Madeleine Cooney 3.22 4–9 Scott Houck / Sophie Kerr 3.57 7–5	44%	7–11 (39%)	−0.8
9	Brown University Bears	9	11.27 school +0.40	Lucas Adams / Marina Cano 3.53 Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 3.53 5–7 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.86 3–7 Pearson Potts / Rachel Gutman 3.75 3–2 James Barry / Rachel Gutman 3.19 0–2 James Barry / Ragna Eide 3.35 1–0	52%	6–9 (40%)	−1.8
10	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	11.81	Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.62 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.93 William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 4.39 6–6 William Macdonald / James Bartlein 4.20 0–2 Riley Eger / William Macdonald 0–1	63%	6–9 (40%)	−3.5
11	Old Dominion University Monarchs	14	9.62 school −0.45	Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.98 Joseph David / Grace Mason 3.08 Daniel Lochner / Carter Little 2.87 5–7 Jacob Spracher / Katelyn Talley 2.73 1–2	26%	6–9 (40%)	+2.2
12	University of South Florida Bulls	12	10.60	Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.98 Benjamin Mohney / Kristen Walker 3.46 Sean Cornell / Brendan Feeney 3.05 5–4 Paul Perry / Brendan Feeney 3.05 0–3 Sean Cornell / Paul Perry 3.28 1–2	41%	6–9 (40%)	−0.1
13	Fordham University Rams	10	10.86 school −0.05	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 3.25 Alecsander Tayler / Evan Morgan 3.45 4–8 Olin Paine / Jamie Spence 3.92 4–8 Olin Paine / Evan Morgan 4.17 1–2 Alecsander Tayler / Connor Murphy 3.74 1–2	47%	5–10 (33%)	−2.0
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	13	10.37 school +0.10	Eddie Cox / Shannon Lawler 3.24 Greiner Hobbs / Kelly Monahan 3.32 Elliott Morrill / Haley Okun 3.47	35%	3–12 (20%)	−2.2
15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	15	8.22 school −0.17	Nick Valente / Caitlin Cummings 3.58 Austin Buonsignore / James Lane 2.10 0–9 Matthew Romanuski / Christopher Whalen 0–9 Austin Buonsignore / Matthew Romanuski 2.18 2–4 Zachary Hill / Christopher Whalen 3.84 2–3 Zachary Hill / James Lane 3.72 0–1	13%	2–13 (13%)	+0.1
16	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	16	6.89 school −0.47	Drew Gallagher / Lucy Sergeant Joseph Egan / Caroline Garth Jack Swikart / Cary Kane 3.18	2%	1–14 (7%)	+0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
16	University of Pennsylvania	6.89	8.18	1–14	0.3	+1.29	0.8	27%
1	College of Charleston	12.62	13.67	16–2	13.6	+1.05	1.7	13%
11	Old Dominion University	9.62	10.64	6–9	3.8	+1.02	1.7	10%
2	Boston College	12.54	13.16	15–3	13.4	+0.62	0.7	26%
5	Georgetown University	11.77	12.34	13–5	11.1	+0.57	0.8	23%
3	Stanford University	12.13	12.54	13–5	11.7	+0.41	0.4	33%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	12.15	12.50	13–5	11.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
6	Tufts University	11.52	11.70	11–7	10.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
15	SUNY Maritime College	8.22	8.33	2–13	1.9	+0.11	0.0	63%
12	University of South Florida	10.60	10.55	6–9	6.1	−0.05	0.0	64%
8	Dartmouth College	10.82	10.58	7–11	7.8	−0.24	0.1	76%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	11.59	11.15	9–9	10.5	−0.44	0.5	86%
9	Brown University	11.27	10.59	6–9	7.8	−0.68	0.9	92%
13	Fordham University	10.86	10.01	5–10	7.0	−0.85	1.2	95%
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.37	9.29	3–12	5.2	−1.08	1.6	97%
10	Roger Williams University	11.81	10.49	6–9	9.5	−1.32	3.2	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.73	4.31	1–2	0.3	+1.58	0.9	29%
Drew Gallagher	University of Pennsylvania	2.29	3.59	1–14	0.3	+1.29	0.8	27%
Joseph Egan	University of Pennsylvania	1.14	2.43	1–14	0.3	+1.29	0.8	27%
Jack Swikart	University of Pennsylvania	3.18	4.47	1–14	0.3	+1.29	0.8	27%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	4.04	5.09	16–2	13.6	+1.05	1.7	13%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.95	5.00	16–2	13.6	+1.05	1.7	13%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.41	5.46	16–2	13.6	+1.05	1.7	13%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.98	5.00	6–9	3.8	+1.02	1.7	10%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	3.08	4.10	6–9	3.8	+1.02	1.7	10%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	2.87	3.73	5–7	3.5	+0.87	1.0	20%
William Bailey	Boston College	4.18	4.80	15–3	13.4	+0.62	0.7	26%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.19	4.81	15–3	13.4	+0.62	0.7	26%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	4.19	4.76	13–5	11.1	+0.57	0.8	23%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.84	4.41	13–5	11.1	+0.57	0.8	23%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.83	4.40	13–5	11.1	+0.57	0.8	23%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.05	3.59	6–6	4.9	+0.54	0.4	32%
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.57	4.10	7–5	5.8	+0.53	0.5	32%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.84	4.32	2–4	1.7	+0.48	0.1	53%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.79	4.20	13–5	11.7	+0.41	0.4	33%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.23	4.64	13–5	11.7	+0.41	0.4	33%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.66	4.00	13–5	11.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.04	4.39	13–5	11.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.75	4.09	13–5	11.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	4.14	4.32	11–7	10.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.59	3.77	11–7	10.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.57	3.75	11–7	10.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.58	3.68	2–13	1.9	+0.11	0.0	63%
Austin Buonsignore	SUNY Maritime College	2.10	2.21	2–13	1.9	+0.11	0.0	63%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	4.04	4.03	6–9	6.0	−0.01	0.0	61%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.98	3.94	6–9	6.1	−0.05	0.0	64%
Benjamin Mohney	University of South Florida	3.46	3.41	6–9	6.1	−0.05	0.0	64%
James Barry	Brown University	3.19	3.14	1–2	1.0	−0.05	0.0	74%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.80	3.36	9–9	10.5	−0.44	0.5	86%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.86	3.41	9–9	10.5	−0.44	0.5	86%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.68	3.24	9–9	10.5	−0.44	0.5	86%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.53	2.85	6–9	7.8	−0.68	0.9	92%
Ian Storck	Dartmouth College	3.22	2.49	4–9	5.6	−0.72	0.8	92%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.77	3.03	4–10	6.1	−0.74	1.1	94%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.25	2.40	5–10	7.0	−0.85	1.2	95%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.45	2.61	5–10	7.0	−0.85	1.2	95%
Olin Paine	Fordham University	3.92	3.08	5–10	7.0	−0.85	1.2	95%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.53	2.67	5–7	6.8	−0.86	1.1	94%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.24	2.16	3–12	5.2	−1.08	1.6	97%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.47	2.39	3–12	5.2	−1.08	1.6	97%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.39	3.11	6–8	9.2	−1.29	3.0	99%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.62	2.30	6–9	9.5	−1.32	3.2	99%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.93	2.61	6–9	9.5	−1.32	3.2	99%
Matthew Romanuski	SUNY Maritime College	1.84	-1.16	0–9	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%
Paul Perry	University of South Florida	3.05	0.05	0–3	1.2	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	66%
1	2	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
1	3	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	4	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	5	College of Charleston	Boston College	51%
1	6	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
1	7	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
1	8	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	27%	upset
1	9	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18%	upset
1	10	Stanford University	Brown University	68%
1	11	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	13	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	14	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	77%
1	15	College of Charleston	Fordham University	87%
1	16	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	92%
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	100%
1	18	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	19	Boston College	Tufts University	74%
1	20	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
1	21	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	88%
1	22	Brown University	Roger Williams University	35%	upset
1	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	81%
1	24	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	92%
1	25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	22%	upset
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	75%
1	27	Boston College	University of Pennsylvania	100%
1	28	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	29	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	47%	upset
1	30	Brown University	Old Dominion University	83%
1	31	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	61%
1	32	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	54%
1	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	97%
1	34	University of South Florida	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	35	Fordham University	Tufts University	32%	upset
1	36	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	88%
1	37	Boston College	Dartmouth College	85%
1	38	Georgetown University	Brown University	63%
1	39	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	86%
1	40	Stanford University	University of South Florida	83%
1	41	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	2%	upset
1	42	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	43	College of Charleston	Tufts University	75%
1	44	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
1	45	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	38%	upset
1	46	University of South Florida	Brown University	31%	upset
1	47	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	40%	upset
1	48	Stanford University	Georgetown University	59%
1	49	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	100%
1	50	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	51	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	66%
1	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	66%
1	53	Boston College	Fordham University	85%
1	54	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	92%
1	55	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	56	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	80%
1	57	Tufts University	Stanford University	35%	upset
1	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	70%
1	60	Boston College	Brown University	82%
1	61	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	19%	upset
1	62	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	88%
1	63	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	64	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	65	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
1	66	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	62%
1	67	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	68	Dartmouth College	Brown University	46%	upset
1	69	Stanford University	Boston College	40%	upset
1	70	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	80%
1	71	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	96%
1	72	University of South Florida	University of Pennsylvania	97%
1	73	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
1	74	Brown University	Fordham University	51%
1	75	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	72%
1	76	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	59%
1	77	Boston College	Roger Williams University	66%
1	78	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	79	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	57%
1	80	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	81	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
1	82	Tufts University	Brown University	54%
1	83	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	76%
1	84	Boston College	Old Dominion University	94%
1	85	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	81%
1	86	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	71%
1	87	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	91%
1	88	Stanford University	Fordham University	73%
1	89	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	90	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	91	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	86%
1	92	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	70%
1	93	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	36%	upset
1	94	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	50%
1	95	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	27%	upset
1	96	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	97	Tufts University	University of South Florida	69%
1	98	Fordham University	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
1	99	Old Dominion University	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
1	100	College of Charleston	Stanford University	62%
1	101	Boston College	Georgetown University	69%
1	102	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	103	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	70%
1	104	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	105	Dartmouth College	SUNY Maritime College	72%
1	106	University of South Florida	Fordham University	43%	upset
1	107	Georgetown University	Tufts University	56%
1	108	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
1	109	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	110	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	92%
1	111	Boston College	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	112	University of South Florida	Dartmouth College	56%
1	113	Georgetown University	Fordham University	70%
1	114	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	77%
1	115	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	116	College of Charleston	Brown University	78%
1	117	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	45%	upset
1	118	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	89%
1	119	Boston College	University of South Florida	87%
1	120	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	33%	upset
4	121	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%	upset
4	122	Boston College	College of Charleston	49%	upset
4	123	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	60%
4	124	College of Charleston	Stanford University	62%
4	125	Boston College	Stanford University	60%
4	126	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	39%	upset
4	127	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
4	128	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	64%
4	129	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	67%
4	130	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
4	131	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	70%
4	132	Georgetown University	Tufts University	56%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Eagles	Cardinal	Seahawks	Hoyas	Jumbos	Midshipmen	Green	Bears	Hawks	Monarchs	Bulls	Rams	Statesmen	Privateers	Quakers
College of Charleston Cougars	15–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	12–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	12–3	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	12–3	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	10–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	9–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	7–8	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–9	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Eagles	Cardinal	Seahawks	Hoyas	Jumbos	Midshipmen	Green
College of Charleston Cougars	1–2	✕	L	W	L	–	–	–	–
Boston College Eagles	3–0	W	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	1–2	L	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–2	W	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
2	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
3	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
5	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
7	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
8	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
9	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
11	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
13	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
14	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
15	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
16	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
17	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
19	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
21	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
22	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
23	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
24	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
25	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
26	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
27	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
28	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
29	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
30	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
31	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
32	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
33	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
34	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
35	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
37	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
38	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
39	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
41	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
42	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
43	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
44	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
45	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
46	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
47	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
49	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
50	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
51	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
53	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
55	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
56	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
58	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
60	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
61	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
62	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
63	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
64	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
65	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
66	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
67	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
68	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
70	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
71	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
72	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
73	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
74	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
75	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
76	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
77	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
78	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
79	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
80	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
81	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
82	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
83	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
84	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
85	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
86	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
87	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
88	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
89	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
90	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
91	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
92	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
93	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
94	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
95	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
96	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
97	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
98	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
99	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
100	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
101	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
102	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
103	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
104	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
105	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
106	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
107	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
108	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
109	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
110	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
111	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
112	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
113	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
114	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
115	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
116	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
117	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
118	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
119	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
120	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
121	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
122	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
123	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
124	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
125	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
126	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
127	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
128	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
129	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
130	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
131	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
132	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Tierney Driscoll '15 Alicia Blumenthal '15 Emily Stuart '16 Rebekah Schiff '16
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Erika Reineke '17 William Bailey '15	Allison Ferraris '17 Christopher Dwyer '15 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Katherine Wysocki '15
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hans Henken '15 Kieran Chung '15 Will La Dow '18	Nicolette Obel '17 Haley Kirk '15 Samantha Steele '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Edmund Cooper '17 Jacob La Dow '15	Mariah Leffingwell '16 Allison Shane '15 Shelby Jacobs '17
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Alex Post '15 Sean Golden '16	Elizabeth Mullarney '16 Bettina Redway '16 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15	Sam Madden '15 Alexander Tong '17 Jamie Maffeo '15 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Connor Hendi '15 Peter Hogan '18 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Charles Peck '15 Emma Ferris '15 Aaron Hull '16
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Deirdre Lambert '15 Ian Storck '15 Scott Houck '15	Abigail Rohman '16 Nathaniel Greason '17 Madeleine Cooney '17 Sophie Kerr '17
Brown University	Bears	James Barry '16 Lucas Adams '15 Nathan Allman '16 Pearson Potts '16	Rachel Gutman '17 Ragna Eide '16 Marina Cano '17 Lydia Whiteford '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 Riley Eger '17 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 William Macdonald '15 Breanne Baldino '16 James Bartlein '15
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15 Joseph David '16	Carter Little '18 Gabriel Smith '17 Katelyn Talley '16 Grace Mason '16
University of South Florida	Bulls	Benjamin Mohney '15 Christopher Stocke '15 Paul Perry '15 Sean Cornell '18	Kristen Walker '17 Ali Yarbrough '16 Brendan Feeney '18 Paul Perry '15
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Olin Paine '16 Will Holz '17	Evan Morgan '18 Connor Murphy '16 Jamie Spence '18 Emma Huntress '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Greiner Hobbs '18	Shannon Lawler '18 Haley Okun '18 Kelly Monahan '18
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Austin Buonsignore '16 Matthew Romanuski '16 Nick Valente '16 Zachary Hill '18	James Lane '17 Matthew Romanuski '16 Christopher Whalen '15 Caitlin Cummings '18
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Drew Gallagher '18 Jack Swikart '15 Joseph Egan '18	Lucy Sergeant '18 Cary Kane '17 Caroline Garth '17

Conditions — 03/21/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 71% · Pressure 1017.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.3 kn

avg · max 6.4 kn

Gusts to 16.1 kn

From WSW (251°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1017.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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