University of South Florida '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (fleet 3.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 59–46 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 34–26 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 21–9 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (94 matches) the record is 56–38 against 51.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 3.41 | 3.14 | 6–9 | 6.5 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2015-04-11 | SAISA Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.77 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 65% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.41 | 6–9 | 6.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 3.94 | 3–4 | 2.3 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 3.25 | 4.46 | 16–1 | 14.7 | +1.21 | 1.1 | 25% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 3.50 | 21–9 | 18.7 | +0.61 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2013-04-13 | SAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.26 | 3.98 | 1–3 | 0.6 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 3.01 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.7 | 3.57 |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | 3.77 |
| SAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | 3.44 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.8 | 3.44 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 2.84 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 8.0 | 3.00 |
| SAISA Spring Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 3.59 |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 70% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 3.32 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.3 | 5.07 |
| SAISA/MAISA | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.3 | 3.49 |
| SAISA Fall Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.7 | 2.66 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 5.2 | — |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 3.42 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 12.6 | 2.85 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 11 | 12.3 | 2.68 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.4 | 4.23 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| SAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.4 | 3.47 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 2.79 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.6 | 2.89 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.2 | 2.30 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 1.40 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 2.80 |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.0 | 2.48 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.0 | 2.52 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 2.51 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.6 | 2.09 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.6 | 0.58 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
