LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships

HostBrown/Salve Regina
Date05/29/2015
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420/FJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	21–4
2	Boston College	Eagles	19–6
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	17–8
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	17–8
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas	15–7
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	14–8
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12–10
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–13
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–8
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–9
11	Fordham University	Rams	6–9
12	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	5–10
13	University of Michigan	Wolverines	3–12
14	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	2–13
15	Oregon State University	Beavers	1–14
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,784 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 128 of 155 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.352 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.25 ± 0.17: an orderly event, more orderly than 71% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	4	12.85 school +0.16	Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.36 Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 4.42 20–3 Graham Landy / Charlotte Belling 4.71 11–2 Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.93 10–2 Ian Barrows / Natalya Doris 4.41 1–1	70%	21–4 (84%)	+3.5
2	Boston College Eagles	5	12.71 school +0.13	Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.20 Raul Rios / Allison Ferraris 4.23 William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 4.12 18–6 Charles Sinks / Katherine Wysocki 4.08 1–0	67%	19–6 (76%)	+2.2
3	Stanford University Cardinal	1	13.08 school +0.57	Antoine Screve / John Cannistraro 4.05 Hans Henken / Nicolette Obel 4.04 Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.38	74%	17–8 (68%)	−1.4
4	College of Charleston Cougars	3	12.98 school +0.38	Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.44 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.97 Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll 4.14	72%	17–8 (68%)	−1.0
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	12.75	Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.78 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 4.11 14–7 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.91 11–7 Alex Post / Elizabeth Mullarney 3.87 2–0 Aj Reiter / Mary Kate Mezzetti 3.69 1–0 Aj Reiter / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.84 1–0 Aj Reiter / Elizabeth Mullarney 3.78 1–0	72%	15–7 (68%)	−0.8
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	11.56 school +0.09	Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.77 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.46 William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 4.23 13–8 William Macdonald / Michael Mcbrien 4.18 1–0	49%	14–8 (64%)	+3.2
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	12.34 school +0.61	Edmund Cooper / Allison Shane 3.72 Alexander Curtiss / Mariah Leffingwell 4.24 Jacob La Dow / Shelby Jacobs 3.73	63%	12–10 (55%)	−1.9
8	Tufts University Jumbos	9	11.30 school +0.14	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 4.02 Duncan Swain / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.59 Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.51 9–13 Dan Nickerson / Leah Fletcher 3.55 1–0	45%	10–13 (43%)	−0.3
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	11.19 school −0.10	Patrick Snow / Emma Ferris 3.70 Mary Hall / Connor Hendi 3.74 Michael Popp / Alexandra Asuncion 3.83	53%	7–9 (44%)	−1.4
10	University of South Florida Bulls	10	10.49 school −0.17	Benjamin Mohney / Kristen Walker 3.41 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.38 6–8 Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.92 5–8 Sean Cornell / Ali Yarbrough 3.40 1–1 Paul Perry / Rebecca Campbell 3.27 0–1	43%	6–9 (40%)	−0.5
11	Fordham University Rams	11	10.35 school −0.08	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 3.32 Alecsander Tayler / Jamie Spence 3.52 Connor Godfrey / Evan Morgan 3.54 6–8 Connor Godfrey / Connor Murphy 3.76 0–1	40%	6–9 (40%)	−0.1
12	University of Wisconsin Badgers	12	9.82 school +0.11	George Kutschenreuter / Katrina Debbink 3.41 Connor Trepton / Kirstin Reeser 3.18 Laura Wefer / Jennifer Burke 3.04	34%	5–10 (33%)	−0.1
13	University of Michigan Wolverines	14	7.94 school +0.05	Thomas Etheridge / Emily Gazall 2.10 Alex Ramos / Lane Tobin 3.29 Christopher Cyr / Sidney Thompson 2.43	17%	3–12 (20%)	+0.4
14	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	13	8.98	Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 3.50 Sterling Henken / Ginger Luckey 2.89 Joseph Schiff / Neil Stapleton 2.50	25%	2–13 (13%)	−1.8
15	Oregon State University Beavers	15	5.18 school +0.06	Andrew Wilkinson / Madison Thompson 1.68 1–13 Brian Hickman / Kyle Peterzã©N 1.90 1–12 Cody Odou / Aike Burger 1.85 1–12 Alexander Muschler / Kyle Peterzã©N 0.60 0–2 Alexander Muschler / Aike Burger 0.66 0–2 Alexander Muschler / Madison Thompson 0.56 0–1	5%	1–14 (7%)	+0.3
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	16	5.37 school −0.26	Michael Sager / Mariana Perrigo 2.15 0–13 Jacob Hafemeister / Megan Ferguson 1.84 0–11 Dylan Marohn / Alex Kraemer 1.93 0–10 Jacob Hafemeister / Haley Walker 1.59 0–2 Noel Ingalls / Ryan Murphy 1.41 0–2 Ryan Murphy / Haley Walker 1.46 0–2 Ryan Murphy / Mariana Perrigo 1.56 0–1 Ryan Murphy / Noel Ingalls 1.60 0–1 Alexander Thompson / Mariana Perrigo 0–1 Noel Ingalls / Megan Ferguson 1.38 0–1 Noel Ingalls / Haley Walker 1.24 0–1	4%	0–15 (0%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	12.85	13.80	21–4	17.5	+0.96	2.3	7%
6	Roger Williams University	11.56	12.45	14–8	10.8	+0.89	2.1	7%
15	Oregon State University	5.18	6.05	1–14	0.7	+0.87	0.2	62%
2	Boston College	12.71	13.25	19–6	16.8	+0.54	0.8	21%
13	University of Michigan	7.94	8.48	3–12	2.6	+0.54	0.2	48%
11	Fordham University	10.35	10.31	6–9	6.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
12	University of Wisconsin	9.82	9.76	5–10	5.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
8	Tufts University	11.30	11.22	10–13	10.3	−0.09	0.0	66%
4	College of Charleston	12.98	12.75	17–8	18.0	−0.23	0.2	77%
5	Georgetown University	12.75	12.52	15–7	15.8	−0.23	0.1	76%
10	University of South Florida	10.49	10.22	6–9	6.5	−0.27	0.1	77%
3	Stanford University	13.08	12.73	17–8	18.4	−0.34	0.4	83%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	12.34	11.83	12–10	13.9	−0.51	0.7	89%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	11.19	10.56	7–9	8.4	−0.63	0.6	90%
14	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.98	6.90	2–13	3.8	−2.08	2.4	99%
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	5.37	2.37	0–15	0.6	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.69	6.70	3–0	3.0	≥+3.00	0.1	96%
Cody Odou	Oregon State University	1.85	2.93	1–12	0.6	+1.08	0.3	61%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.42	5.38	21–4	17.5	+0.96	2.3	7%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.71	5.67	21–4	17.5	+0.96	2.3	7%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.23	5.12	14–8	10.8	+0.89	2.1	7%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.77	4.66	14–8	10.8	+0.89	2.1	7%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.46	4.35	14–8	10.8	+0.89	2.1	7%
Brian Hickman	Oregon State University	1.90	2.77	1–12	0.7	+0.87	0.2	62%
Andrew Wilkinson	Oregon State University	1.68	2.55	1–13	0.7	+0.87	0.2	62%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.20	4.74	19–6	16.8	+0.54	0.8	21%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.23	4.77	19–6	16.8	+0.54	0.8	21%
William Bailey	Boston College	4.12	4.66	18–6	15.8	+0.54	0.8	21%
Thomas Etheridge	University of Michigan	2.10	2.64	3–12	2.6	+0.54	0.2	48%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	3.29	3.83	3–12	2.6	+0.54	0.2	48%
Christopher Cyr	University of Michigan	2.43	2.97	3–12	2.6	+0.54	0.2	48%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.32	3.29	6–9	6.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.54	3.50	6–9	6.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.52	3.48	6–9	6.1	−0.04	0.0	66%
George Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	3.41	3.36	5–10	5.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
Connor Trepton	University of Wisconsin	3.18	3.13	5–10	5.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
Laura Wefer	University of Wisconsin	3.04	2.99	5–10	5.1	−0.05	0.0	67%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	4.02	3.94	10–13	10.3	−0.09	0.0	66%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.51	3.42	10–13	10.3	−0.09	0.0	66%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.59	3.51	10–13	10.3	−0.09	0.0	66%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.44	4.21	17–8	18.0	−0.23	0.2	77%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.97	3.74	17–8	18.0	−0.23	0.2	77%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	4.14	3.91	17–8	18.0	−0.23	0.2	77%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.78	4.55	15–7	15.8	−0.23	0.1	76%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	4.11	3.87	14–7	14.8	−0.24	0.1	77%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.91	3.67	13–7	13.9	−0.24	0.1	77%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.38	3.14	6–8	6.4	−0.25	0.1	76%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.92	3.67	5–8	5.4	−0.25	0.1	76%
Benjamin Mohney	University of South Florida	3.41	3.14	6–9	6.5	−0.27	0.1	77%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	4.05	3.71	17–8	18.4	−0.34	0.4	83%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	4.04	3.69	17–8	18.4	−0.34	0.4	83%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.38	4.04	17–8	18.4	−0.34	0.4	83%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.72	3.21	12–10	13.9	−0.51	0.7	89%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.24	3.73	12–10	13.9	−0.51	0.7	89%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.73	3.22	12–10	13.9	−0.51	0.7	89%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.70	3.07	7–9	8.4	−0.63	0.6	90%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.74	3.11	7–9	8.4	−0.63	0.6	90%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.83	3.20	7–9	8.4	−0.63	0.6	90%
Stephen Long	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.50	1.42	2–13	3.8	−2.08	2.4	99%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.89	0.81	2–13	3.8	−2.08	2.4	99%
Joseph Schiff	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.50	0.42	2–13	3.8	−2.08	2.4	99%
Jacob Hafemeister	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.84	-1.16	0–13	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Michael Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.15	-0.85	0–13	0.6	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%
Ryan Murphy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.46	-1.54	0–4	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%
Alexander Muschler	Oregon State University	0.60	-2.40	0–5	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Yale University	Roger Williams University	75%
	2	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
	3	Tufts University	Oregon State University	100%
	4	Fordham University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
	5	Stanford University	Georgetown University	57%
	6	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	59%
	7	University of Wisconsin	University of California at Santa Barbara	70%
	8	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	94%
	9	Yale University	Tufts University	80%
	10	College of Charleston	Fordham University	93%
	11	Roger Williams University	Oregon State University	100%
	12	U. S. Naval Academy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	13	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	95%
	14	Boston College	University of South Florida	89%
	15	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
	16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Michigan	99%
	17	Yale University	Oregon State University	100%
	18	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	19	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	77%
	20	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
	21	Stanford University	Tufts University	85%
	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	88%
	23	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
	24	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	99%
	25	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	85%
	26	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	65%
	27	Georgetown University	Oregon State University	100%
	28	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	29	Tufts University	University of California at Santa Barbara	91%
	30	Fordham University	University of Michigan	92%
	31	Yale University	Stanford University	47%	upset
	32	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
	33	University of Wisconsin	Oregon State University	99%
	34	University of South Florida	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	35	Roger Williams University	University of California at Santa Barbara	93%
	36	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Michigan	96%
	37	Georgetown University	Tufts University	82%
	38	Boston College	Fordham University	91%
	39	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	96%
	40	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	92%
	41	University of California at Santa Barbara	Oregon State University	97%
	42	University of Michigan	Texas A&M University at Galveston	90%
	43	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	18%	upset
	44	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
	45	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	82%
	46	University of South Florida	Fordham University	56%
	47	Yale University	Georgetown University	48%	upset
	48	College of Charleston	Boston College	57%
	49	Stanford University	Oregon State University	100%
	50	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	51	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	57%
	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	70%
	53	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	97%
	54	Boston College	University of Michigan	99%
	55	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	96%
	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	85%
	57	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	20%	upset
	58	Yale University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	59	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
	60	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
	61	University of Michigan	University of California at Santa Barbara	26%	upset
	62	Stanford University	University of South Florida	92%
	63	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	96%
	64	Boston College	Oregon State University	100%
	65	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	31%	upset
	66	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
	67	University of California at Santa Barbara	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
	68	Fordham University	Tufts University	28%	upset
	69	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	45%	upset
	70	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	95%
	71	Stanford University	University of Michigan	99%
	72	University of South Florida	Oregon State University	100%
	73	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
	74	Fordham University	University of California at Santa Barbara	79%
	75	College of Charleston	Tufts University	84%
	76	Yale University	Boston College	51%
	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	39%	upset
	78	University of Michigan	Oregon State University	97%
	79	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	68%
	80	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	81	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	90%
	82	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	77%
	83	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	74%
	84	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	99%
	85	Yale University	University of South Florida	91%
	86	Stanford University	Boston College	59%
	87	Oregon State University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	58%
	88	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
	89	Fordham University	University of Wisconsin	63%
	90	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	17%	upset
	91	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	97%
	92	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
	93	Boston College	Tufts University	80%
	94	Yale University	College of Charleston	50%	upset
	95	University of Wisconsin	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
	96	Fordham University	Oregon State University	99%
	97	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	73%
	98	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of California at Santa Barbara	96%
	99	Tufts University	University of Michigan	97%
	100	Stanford University	College of Charleston	52%
	101	Boston College	Georgetown University	48%	upset
	102	U. S. Naval Academy	Oregon State University	100%
	103	Yale University	Fordham University	93%
	104	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	92%
	105	Tufts University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	106	University of South Florida	University of California at Santa Barbara	82%
	107	Boston College	Roger Williams University	76%
	108	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
	109	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Oregon State University	100%
	110	Yale University	University of Michigan	99%
	111	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	112	Tufts University	University of South Florida	68%
	113	Boston College	University of California at Santa Barbara	97%
	114	University of Wisconsin	U. S. Naval Academy	21%	upset
	115	College of Charleston	Oregon State University	100%
	116	Stanford University	Fordham University	93%
	117	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
	118	Roger Williams University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
	119	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	95%
	120	University of Wisconsin	University of Michigan	87%
8	121	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
8	122	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	81%
8	123	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	59%
8	124	Stanford University	Georgetown University	57%
8	125	Tufts University	Yale University	19%	upset
8	126	Boston College	Roger Williams University	76%
8	127	College of Charleston	Stanford University	47%	upset
8	128	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	74%
8	129	Yale University	Georgetown University	49%	upset
8	130	Boston College	Stanford University	41%	upset
8	131	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	56%
8	132	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	45%	upset
8	133	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
8	134	Tufts University	Stanford University	15%	upset
8	135	Georgetown University	Boston College	52%
8	136	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	69%
8	137	College of Charleston	Yale University	50%
8	138	Georgetown University	Tufts University	81%
8	139	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	68%
8	140	Boston College	College of Charleston	43%	upset
8	141	Roger Williams University	Yale University	23%	upset
8	142	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	61%
8	143	College of Charleston	Tufts University	84%
8	144	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	82%
8	145	Yale University	Boston College	52%
8	146	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
8	147	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	77%
8	148	Boston College	Tufts University	80%
8	149	Yale University	Stanford University	48%	upset
8	150	Boston College	Stanford University	41%	upset
8	151	College of Charleston	Yale University	50%	upset
8	152	Boston College	College of Charleston	43%	upset
8	153	Yale University	Stanford University	48%	upset
8	154	Stanford University	College of Charleston	53%
8	155	Yale University	Boston College	52%

Round 0

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Cougars	Hoyas	Hawks	Seahawks	Jumbos	Midshipmen	Bulls	Rams	Badgers	Wolverines	Gauchos	Beavers	Aggies
Yale University Bulldogs	15–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	12–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	13–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	11–4	L	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	10–5	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	12–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	10–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Oregon State University Beavers	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cardinal	Cougars	Hoyas	Hawks	Seahawks	Jumbos	Midshipmen
Yale University Bulldogs	6–4	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	L	–
Boston College Eagles	7–3	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	–
Stanford University Cardinal	4–6	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	–
College of Charleston Cougars	6–4	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	–
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	–
Tufts University Jumbos	3–5	W	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	0–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
2	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
3	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
4	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
5	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
6	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
7	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
8	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
9	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
10	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
11	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
13	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
14	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
15	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
16	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
18	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
19	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
21	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
22	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
23	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
24	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
25	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
28	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
29	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
30	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
32	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
33	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
34	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
35	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
38	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
40	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
41	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
42	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
43	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
44	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
45	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
46	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
47	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
48	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
49	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
50	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
51	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
53	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
54	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
57	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
59	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
60	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
61	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
62	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
63	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
64	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
65	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
67	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
68	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
69	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
70	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
71	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
72	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
73	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
74	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
75	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
76	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
77	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
78	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Beavers	3-4-6
79	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Badgers	2-4-6
80	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
81	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
82	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
83	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
84	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Wolverines	1-4-6
85	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
86	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
87	Beavers	1-3-6	def.	Aggies	2-4-5
88	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
89	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
90	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
91	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
92	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
93	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
94	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
95	Badgers	1-3-4	def.	Aggies	2-5-6
96	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Beavers	3-4-5
97	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
98	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
99	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
100	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
101	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
102	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
103	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
104	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
105	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
106	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
107	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
108	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
109	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
110	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
111	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
112	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
113	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
114	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
115	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
116	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
117	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
118	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
119	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
120	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
121	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
122	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
123	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
124	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
125	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
126	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
127	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
128	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
129	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
130	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
131	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
132	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
133	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
134	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
135	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
136	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
137	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
138	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
139	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
140	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
141	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
142	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
143	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
144	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
145	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
146	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
147	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
148	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
149	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
150	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
151	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
152	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
153	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
154	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
155	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18	Charlotte Belling '16 Katherine Gaumond '15 Meredith Megarry '17 Natalya Doris '17 Chandler Gregoire '17
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Katherine Wysocki '15 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Allison Ferraris '17
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Hans Henken '15 Kieran Chung '15	John Cannistraro '17 Nicolette Obel '17 Haley Kirk '15
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Tierney Driscoll '15 Alicia Blumenthal '15 Emily Stuart '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Elizabeth Mullarney '16 Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 Bettina Redway '16 Katia Dasilva '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16 Michael Mcbrien '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Edmund Cooper '17 Jacob La Dow '15	Mariah Leffingwell '16 Allison Shane '15 Shelby Jacobs '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15	Sam Madden '15 Jamie Maffeo '15 Leah Fletcher '17 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Connor Hendi '15 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Emma Ferris '15
University of South Florida	Bulls	Benjamin Mohney '15 Christopher Stocke '15 Fernando Monllor '16 Paul Perry '15 Sean Cornell '18	Kristen Walker '17 Ali Yarbrough '16 Rebecca Campbell '16
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Jamie Spence '18 Evan Morgan '18 Connor Murphy '16 Emma Huntress '16
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Connor Trepton '15 George Kutschenreuter '15 Laura Wefer '16	Kirstin Reeser '15 Katrina Debbink '15 Jennifer Burke '16
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Christopher Cyr '16 Thomas Etheridge '16	Lane Tobin '18 Sidney Thompson '18 Emily Gazall '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Joseph Schiff '17 Stephen Long '17 Sterling Henken '18	Neil Stapleton '18 Kristina Miller '17 Ginger Luckey '16
Oregon State University	Beavers	Alexander Muschler '16 Andrew Wilkinson '18 Brian Hickman '15 Cody Odou '17	Madison Thompson '16 Kyle Peterzã©N '16 Aike Burger '16
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Alexander Thompson '18 Dylan Marohn '16 Jacob Hafemeister '16 Michael Sager '15 Noel Ingalls '16 Ryan Murphy '15	Mariana Perrigo '18 Alex Kraemer '16 Haley Walker '18 Megan Ferguson '17 Ryan Murphy '15 Noel Ingalls '16

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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