Fordham University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 98–112 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 15–9 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 19–43 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 37–39 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 27–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (162 matches) the record is 71–91 against 73.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.59 | 3.60 | 9–5 | 9.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.60 | 3.31 | 6–4 | 6.6 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 3.54 | 3.50 | 6–9 | 6.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.76 | 3.69 | 6–8 | 6.2 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 3.27 | 6–18 | 7.0 | −0.26 | 0.2 | 77% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.33 | 1.75 | 1–8 | 2.6 | −1.58 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.09 | 3.17 | 10–11 | 9.8 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.14 | 3.07 | 13–8 | 13.3 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 3.61 | 6–9 | 5.2 | +0.38 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.13 | 3.26 | 2–7 | 1.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.31 | 6–4 | 5.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mosbacher, Owen, Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.0 | 4.15 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.9 | 2.05 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.6 | 3.74 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 3.62 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.2 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.3 | 3.02 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.1 | 3.55 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 4.05 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 3.46 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.2 | 3.90 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 2.80 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 3.81 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 4.15 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.1 | 3.80 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.2 | 3.31 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.5 | 3.48 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.6 | 3.85 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.0 | 3.84 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 3.48 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.83 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 3.63 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.4 | 3.10 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.2 | 2.74 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.2 | 1.83 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.1 | 2.85 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 10.8 | 2.91 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.1 | 2.77 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.3 | 3.20 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.9 | 3.45 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 1.9 | 4.26 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.8 | 3.31 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 3.45 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.09 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.9 | 2.21 |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.74 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Queen's Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.0 | — |
| MAISA Club Team Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.8 | 2.49 |
| MAISA Central qualifer | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.6 | 1.26 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.0 | 2.66 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.5 | 2.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
