Washington College Team Race

HostWashington College
Date03/09/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	13–2
2	Fordham University	Rams	10–5
2	Washington College	Shoremen	10–5
4	Cornell University	Big Red	7–8
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	4–11
6	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 530 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.576 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	8.91 school +0.38	Michael Croteau / Charlotte Williamson 3.00 Tom Peabody / Ayaka Okawa 2.67 Kaylee Schwitzer / Mae Speight	87%	13–2 (87%)	−0.0
2	Fordham University Rams	4	6.34	Connor Godfrey / Dan Canziani 2.69 Olin Paine / Emma Pfohman 3.69 5–4 Samuel Peirson / Mary Cervin 1.54 4–5 Mary Cervin 6–0 Adam Keally / Emma Pfohman 3–0 Emma Pfohman 2–1	40%	10–5 (67%)	+3.9
2	Washington College Shoremen	2	7.55 school −0.09, home +0.30	Sam Fitzgerald / Blair Towers 3.00 Samuel Bedinger / Alexandra Crawford 1.87 Eric Siegel / Matt Lawler	62%	10–5 (67%)	+0.7
4	Cornell University Big Red	3	6.19	Duncan Howes / Devon Furlong Michael Rivlin / Juliet Levine Alden Sonnenfeldt / Erin Ahlers	47%	7–8 (47%)	+0.0
5	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	5.86 school −0.25	Scott Lubliner / Andrew Haggerty Julia Paxton / Lauren Albano 2.69 Paige Conlin / Jonathan O'Connell	31%	4–11 (27%)	−0.7
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	5.52	Jack Swikart / Monica Wojciechowski Michael Russom / Tyler Altenhofen Roger Garcia Valls / Jose -Maria Barrero	33%	1–14 (7%)	−4.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Fordham University	6.34	7.64	10–5	6.1	+1.30	3.7	2%
2	Washington College	7.55	7.87	10–5	9.3	+0.32	0.2	44%
4	Cornell University	6.19	6.19	7–8	7.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
1	Bowdoin College	8.91	8.88	13–2	13.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
5	SUNY Maritime College	5.86	5.60	4–11	4.7	−0.26	0.1	76%
6	University of Pennsylvania	5.52	3.07	1–14	5.0	−2.45	5.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Mary Cervin	Fordham University	0.00	3.00	6–0	2.5	≥+3.00	8.4	<1%
Adam Keally	Fordham University	2.00	5.00	3–0	0.5	≥+3.00	6.6	1%
Emma Pfohman	Fordham University	-0.08	1.81	2–1	0.7	+1.88	1.8	14%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	2.69	3.99	10–5	6.1	+1.30	3.7	2%
Sam Fitzgerald	Washington College	3.00	3.32	10–5	9.3	+0.32	0.2	44%
Samuel Bedinger	Washington College	1.87	2.19	10–5	9.3	+0.32	0.2	44%
Eric Siegel	Washington College	2.26	2.58	10–5	9.3	+0.32	0.2	44%
Olin Paine	Fordham University	3.69	3.78	5–4	4.8	+0.09	0.0	59%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	2.21	2.22	7–8	7.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
Michael Rivlin	Cornell University	1.22	1.22	7–8	7.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
Alden Sonnenfeldt	Cornell University	2.08	2.09	7–8	7.0	+0.00	0.0	63%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	3.00	2.98	13–2	13.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
Tom Peabody	Bowdoin College	2.67	2.64	13–2	13.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
Kaylee Schwitzer	Bowdoin College	2.55	2.53	13–2	13.0	−0.02	0.0	69%
Scott Lubliner	SUNY Maritime College	1.85	1.59	4–11	4.7	−0.26	0.1	76%
Julia Paxton	SUNY Maritime College	2.69	2.43	4–11	4.7	−0.26	0.1	76%
Paige Conlin	SUNY Maritime College	1.26	1.00	4–11	4.7	−0.26	0.1	76%
Jack Swikart	University of Pennsylvania	2.53	0.08	1–14	5.0	−2.45	5.9	>99%
Michael Russom	University of Pennsylvania	2.32	-0.14	1–14	5.0	−2.45	5.9	>99%
Roger Garcia Valls	University of Pennsylvania	0.00	-2.45	1–14	5.0	−2.45	5.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	69%
1	2	Bowdoin College	Cornell University	96%
1	3	Washington College	University of Pennsylvania	92%
1	4	Fordham University	Bowdoin College	31%	upset
1	5	Cornell University	Washington College	16%	upset
1	6	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	63%
1	7	Fordham University	Cornell University	22%	upset
1	8	Bowdoin College	Washington College	79%
1	9	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	27%	upset
1	10	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	11	Washington College	Fordham University	35%	upset
1	12	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	56%
1	13	Bowdoin College	University of Pennsylvania	97%
1	14	Washington College	SUNY Maritime College	85%
1	15	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	66%
2	16	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	63%
2	17	Bowdoin College	Cornell University	94%
2	18	Washington College	University of Pennsylvania	88%
2	19	Bowdoin College	Fordham University	68%
2	20	Cornell University	Washington College	21%	upset
2	21	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	58%
2	22	Fordham University	Cornell University	17%	upset
2	23	Washington College	Bowdoin College	20%	upset
2	24	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	77%
2	25	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	96%
2	26	Washington College	Fordham University	35%	upset
2	27	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	40%	upset
2	28	Bowdoin College	University of Pennsylvania	97%
2	29	Washington College	SUNY Maritime College	84%
2	30	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	66%
3	31	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	61%
3	32	Bowdoin College	Cornell University	93%
3	33	Washington College	University of Pennsylvania	87%
3	34	Bowdoin College	Fordham University	68%
3	35	Washington College	Cornell University	77%
3	36	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	56%
3	37	Fordham University	Cornell University	15%	upset
3	38	Bowdoin College	Washington College	80%
3	39	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	21%	upset
3	40	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	96%
3	41	Fordham University	Washington College	66%
3	42	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	61%
3	43	Bowdoin College	University of Pennsylvania	96%
3	44	Washington College	SUNY Maritime College	84%
3	45	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	66%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Rams	Shoremen	Red	Privateers	Quakers
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	3–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Rams	Shoremen	Red	Privateers	Quakers
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Washington College Shoremen	4–1	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bears	Rams	Shoremen	Red	Privateers	Quakers
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
2	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
3	Shoremen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
4	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
5	Big Red	1-5-6	def.	Shoremen	2-3-4 DNF,DNF
6	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
7	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
8	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
9	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
10	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
11	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
12	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
13	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
14	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
15	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
16	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
17	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
18	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
19	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
20	Big Red	3-4-5	def.	Shoremen	1-2-6 DNF
21	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
22	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
23	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
24	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
25	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Privateers	2-3-6
26	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
27	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
28	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
29	Shoremen	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
30	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
31	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
32	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
33	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
34	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
35	Shoremen	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
36	Privateers	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
37	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
38	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
39	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
40	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
41	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
42	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
43	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
44	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
45	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kaylee Schwitzer '15 Michael Croteau '15 Tom Peabody '14	Mae Speight '13 Charlotte Williamson '15 Ayaka Okawa '14
Fordham University	Rams	Adam Keally '15 Connor Godfrey '16 Emma Pfohman '13 Mary Cervin '15 Olin Paine '16 Samuel Peirson '16	Emma Pfohman '13 Dan Canziani '14 Mary Cervin '15
Washington College	Shoremen	Eric Siegel '16 Sam Fitzgerald '14 Samuel Bedinger '13	Matt Lawler '13 Blair Towers '15 Alexandra Crawford '16
Cornell University	Big Red	Alden Sonnenfeldt '13 Duncan Howes '15 Michael Rivlin '13	Erin Ahlers '13 Devon Furlong '13 Juliet Levine '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Julia Paxton '14 Paige Conlin '14 Scott Lubliner '13	Lauren Albano '16 Jonathan O'Connell '15 Andrew Haggerty '14
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Jack Swikart '15 Michael Russom '13 Roger Garcia Valls '13	Monica Wojciechowski '16 Tyler Altenhofen '16 Jose -Maria Barrero '13

Conditions — 03/09/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1025.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.4 kn

avg · max 7.9 kn

Gusts to 15.4 kn

From NNW (336°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1025.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Washington College in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled fleet-race days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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